The new majority in Montenegro should remember how quickly Albin Kurti's government was overthrown in Kosovo, before making any ambitious plans.
This was written by the editor of the Balkan Research Network (BIRN), Markus Tanner, in reference to the change of government in Montenegro.
Kurti's government fell half a year after it refused to be cooperative with Donald Trump's administration. Along with the simultaneous rehabilitation of Hashim Thaci's regime.
Is this ominous warning appropriate for the new majority in Montenegro? So far, only the shadows of the international community's role in the changes in Montenegro can be seen.
Like her indirect and unusual mention in the DPS statement issued the second day after the election: "We expect the international community to remain consistent, as it remained silent for eight months on the unprecedented interference of another country in our elections and on the unprecedented influence of the church on politics, to leave this decision (formation of the government) to Montenegrin political subjects".
Another indicator of the involvement of international actors in the changes in Montenegro is the unusually calm recognition of the defeat of Đukanović, when it is known that his DPS created obstruction in every local corner, from Andrijevica to Budva, whenever and wherever it was threatened by opposition status. It is speculated in the DPS that the top of the party was informed, a few days before the election, that the USA and Russia had reached an agreement that it was time for a change of government in Montenegro.
Furthermore, there is a platform signed by Zdravko Krivokapić, Dritan Abazović and Aleksa Bečić in which they make it clear that, as far as NATO, the status of Kosovo, and identity issues are concerned, they will continue where DPS left off. Similar to how in 1997, Đukanović continued on the path started by the Liberal Alliance, "Monitor", intellectuals...
The impression is that the tone in the writing of the platform was set by Western structures, such as the impression that Daka Davidović and Amfilohije calmed down Nebojša Medojević behind the scenes, who says what Andrija Mandić thinks.
Or, simply, it is about flattering Davidović and Amfilohi to the West. In any case, the statements from this platform about Montenegro's foreign policy course and identity issues could only have a beneficial effect on part of the agitated Western and domestic public after the defeat of Đukanović, who was only declaratively in favor of Western values.
The platform is the reason why the comparison with the recent events in Kosovo is out of place.
In fact, by signing this platform, the trio brought themselves closer to the Macedonian scenario and the position of Zoran Zaev.
Now the fate of DPS depends on the moves of Đukanović, just as the fate of VMRO-DPMNE depended on Nikola Gruevski, who, fearing reprisals, fled to Hungary. Leaving a party that, even at the beginning of a serious internal reform, remained a constant threat to Zaev's government.
Despite the encouraging first steps, Krivokapić, Bečić and Abazović face numerous challenges.
The narrow majority of 41 deputies is made up of numerous parties and groups whose cooperation will be characterized by mutual intolerance.
Part of the DF feels apprehensive that Davidović and Krivokapić, under the guise of an expert government, could eventually form a new party that will try to suck up the electorate of the alliance led by Mandić, Knežević (Milan) and Medojević. In addition, the new majority will clash with people from Đukanović's DPS in the institutions, and we should not expect that changes will happen overnight.
For example, all DPS personnel appointed on the basis of a competition, such as the police director, cannot be replaced by a mere political decree.
Although the adoption of the law on the government, which would stipulate that the mandates of directors in certain institutions end with the election of a new executive power, and what is speculated, could be one of the intermediate steps for dismantling the system, we should not forget how Đukanović received criticism from the international community a few years ago when he requested that the leading personnel in state institutions and bodies, selected through a competition, tender their resignations.
Even if the process of dismantling gains momentum without significant friction, DPS has captured the state to such an extent in the last three decades that the new majority will have a challenge to find a large number of quality personnel with institutional experience.
The announced expert government must not be a mask for insinuating party cadres in the depth of the system.
The new majority, if it wants to show that it is different from the DPS, must look for professional, non-partisan cadres with integrity, especially for regulatory institutions, councils, agencies. It makes you cringe when you hear publicly that the parties of the new ruling majority are already counting the percentage of seats they have in the new government. The third, essentially the first, challenge of the new government is the economy.
According to official documents, 497 million euros are due in Montenegro next year alone, and 160 million euros in the next three months. Almost 660 million euros by the end of 2021.
If we include the effect of the coronavirus on the over-indebted Montenegrin economy in this calculation, the financing needs by the end of 2021, according to analysts' estimates, exceed one billion euros.
As much as the new government needs political support from the West, it also needs economic support - without support, loans and expert advice from the IMF, the World Bank, the EBRD and other international institutions, Montenegro cannot settle the excesses of the administration, nor the accounts with disputed investors, domestic or eastern, completed and unfinished privatizations, such as the Airport, Port of Bar, nor with money laundering and fraud in the banking sector. The new majority has no margin for error.
The relationship of the international community will largely determine the quality and sustainability of changes in Montenegro.
It is certain that the trio will be under the sharp scrutiny of the West, especially the USA. Thus, there is already speculation about the arrival of Matthew Palmer on a regional visit, with an emphasis on events in Montenegro.
The aforementioned editor of BIRN wrote at the beginning of the text that now some in Montenegro feel as blessed as the French in 1789. For some, it is more appropriate to compare the current situation in Montenegro with that in Russia in 1917.
Krivokapić, Abazović and Bečić led the "February" revolution. They have a long way to go until the "October victory". And for that they have to earn "ammunition" from the West.
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