I have to praise the DF - it seems like they gave up on aligning the presidential candidate with United Russia. They haven't been in Moscow for a long time, and that's where some third-rate politician of the type of Andrije Popović comes to support them instead of Železnjak. What is more important is that DF will have its own trump card, which may or may not be to Russia's liking. On the other hand, this means that the opposition will not have a single presidential candidate, as it had in the previous elections, when Lekić, thanks to this fact, defeated Vujanović.
This is already a small handicap for Bečić's candidacy, which logically arose from the fact that he is the leader of the single strongest opposition party. But the voters are already used to the existence of two opposition columns that suspect each other of having emerged from under the mantle of official Moscow, that is, Washington. Analyzes showed that in the race of the three main presidential candidates nominated by the three largest political blocs, there is a certain second round in which Bečić would most likely enter with a possible chance of even winning those elections. Based on such a calculation, but also on what has been done in the last two or three years, the Democrats eagerly awaited March with the long-ago, red bow and wrapped Aleks. And until the recent local elections, nothing in the aforementioned projections of DCG Bogdanović's chief strategist seemed controversial. But now maybe it is. Not only because of the results of this party in Cetinje and Mojkovac, where they got significantly less than proclaimed and where, most importantly, they did not manage to replace the DPS government with the rest of the opposition. A bigger problem for the Democrats was the lack of a quick and proper reaction after those elections and to meet those that are already a few months away. First of all presidential and Podgorica. Instead, we watched barren and ineffective gatherings of the leaders of the civil opposition, from which unsolicited messages were broadcast about how they know with whom they will not go to the elections, namely DPS and DF, but not with whom they want and how they intend to get Đukanović's phalanx.
This is how a month and a half has been spent, probably a full two, and the Democrats, as the strongest subject of the opposition, have not yet offered possible solutions to the aforementioned open issues. The rest of the civil opposition, according to its strength, is waiting for the big brother's proposal. DCG is clearly not for one column. Maybe they are right. And maybe they're not. It will show the time. The problem of one or more columns is not in their number, but in strategy and thought-out preparation, timely action.
In this context, the Democrats often use the bad experience with the "Ključ" coalition as an argument. Although it has never been established why that alliance failed in October 2016 - whether it was precisely because of the months-long wait for Demos, as the leader of that bloc at the time, to gather all his forces, which led them to citadel and then to forced, and therefore strength, solutions. Without Krivokapić and with the unreliable Milić! If the Democrats should learn something from the "Key" experience, it is precisely this delay in making important and right decisions. In addition, if Bogdanović's analysis showed that one opposition column has no synergy, and therefore no sense, then the same logic had to lead to the conclusion that more civil columns in the Podgorica elections do not support Bečić's candidacy for the presidency! Because then only DCG and URE could be candidates, if the negotiations of those entities lead to such an agreement.
And that is little to win those elections. Not only Bečić, but any other candidate, who was not supported by the complete civil opposition, plus parts of the civil sector and independent personalities, would have a great chance of losing in the first round even to the DF representative, which would have tragic consequences for the democratic environment in Montenegro. Burning. It does not take much wisdom to conclude that the division of Montenegro between DPS and DF suits only the leaders of these two groups. For the former to continue with the wealth of resources, for the latter to remain in eternal opposition because they would not know how to do anything else in life.
Maybe Bogdanović has some extraordinary negotiating skills that will enable him to convince the leaders of SDP, Demos and SNP to go to all elections, including Podgorica, independently or in several columns, and to stand behind Aleksa in the presidential election. In that case, Bečić's candidacy would make sense. But if Krivokapić, Lekić and Joković judge that only a package arrangement works for them, otherwise everyone will have their own candidate, then serious problems arise for Aleksa. In the campaign, he would therefore be exposed to blows from both the left and the right, both from his own members of the civil opposition, and from enemies from the DF and DPS. Under that crossfire, he would hardly have passed without serious injuries, perhaps even dangerous for his future political life.
One thing is certain - in a situation where, along with Bečić, there are two or three other candidates of the civic opposition who are counting on the same voters as the leader of the Democrats, it is more realistic to expect Krivokapić and Lekić, for example, to switch the ratings of their parties than for Bečić to do so. And that automatically leads to the already mentioned worst situation, that the "citizen's votes" fall apart in the first round so much so that the DF candidate, even if he is a professor of metallurgy, goes on to the finals. Then DPS in the second round, if there was one at all, wins with Migo as a candidate for the head of state. What would he lack - the true successor of the one who unconstitutionally and fraudulently pushed us even a third term.
Bonus video:
