After several days of uncertainty, Joe Biden secured victory in the US presidential election, but commentators and journalists remained confused. Seduced by the results of the polls, many expected that the Democrats would win a historic victory and win not only the White House but also the Senate. How is it possible that Donald Trump managed to preserve the support of such a large number of Americans and win even more votes than four years ago, despite blatant lies, obvious corruption and a disastrous response to the pandemic?
The importance of these issues goes beyond the scope of American politics. Center-left parties around the world are looking for ways to counter right-wing populists and regain the support of the electorate. Although Biden is temperamentally centrist, the Democratic Party's platform has shifted significantly to the left – at least by American standards. If the Democrats had achieved a more convincing victory, it would certainly raise the morale of the moderate left: maybe it is enough to combine progressive economic policies with a commitment to democratic values and elementary civility to win the elections?
There is much debate about what should have been done to ensure a better result for the Democrats. Unfortunately, it is not easy to draw useful lessons from their narrow victory. American politics revolves around two main axes - culture and economy - and in both segments there are commentators who claim that the Democratic Party has gone too far this time, as well as those who claim that it has not offered enough.
The ongoing culture wars have deepened the conflict between socially conservative and predominantly white regions in the central parts of the country and metropolises dominated by "enlightened" political attitudes. On one side are family values, opposition to abortion and insistence on the right to own firearms. On the other are the rights of the LGBT+ community, social justice and the fight against "systemic racism".
Democratic support for street protests against police brutality was interpreted by Trump voters as an endorsement of violence and a blanket condemnation of the entire country for systemic racism. Some commentators believe that in this way the Democratic Party exposed itself to accusations of moral posturing and rejection of the values held by the residents of the central parts of the country, although Biden himself condemned the violence. Others conclude that the unexpected support for Trump only shows how deep-rooted racism and bigotry are, which is why they need to be opposed even more strongly.
On the economy, many analysts, including Democratic centrists, believe that by moving to the left, Democrats have scared off conservative voters. In keeping with tradition, Republicans have used it to fuel fears of tax hikes, job cuts due to new environmental policies and socialized health care. The old American myth of the entrepreneur who works best when the government interferes the least is still alive and well in both major parties.
But the progressive wing of the party disagrees with such an interpretation. His representatives claim that Biden campaigned on proposals that cannot be described as radical, at least by the standards of other developed countries. After all, Biden understood the election from the beginning as a referendum on Trump, and not as a statement to the public about the alternative political program he offers. Perhaps Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren, with their insistence on jobs, economic security and redistribution, would be closer to the aspirations of most Americans.
Given that the election was held in the midst of an increasingly deadly pandemic, it is possible that voter choice was influenced by a combination of health and economic reasons that have little to do with the issues analysts are debating. Some insiders in the Democratic Party believe that voters were worried about the possible economic consequences of the stricter measures to fight the covid-19 pandemic that the Democrats are proposing. If that's true, the arguments listed above are largely moot.
In any case, it is clear that these elections did not bring an answer to the question of how politicians from the Democratic Party and left-of-center parties should position themselves in relation to important cultural and economic issues in order to gain more support from voters. Also, the result did not significantly change the nature of the challenges these parties face. The political leaders of the left must build a less elitist identity and a more credible economic policy.
As noted by Thomas Piketty and many other authors, the parties of the left have turned into parties of educated urban elites. With the erosion of their traditional base in the working class, the influence of members of the globalized professions, the financial industry, and corporate interests has grown. The problem is not only that these elites often choose economic policies that do not favor the middle and lower classes and backward regions, but also that their cultural, social and spatial isolation makes them unable to accept and understand the views of people who live more modestly than them. It is indicative of the ease with which cultural elites dismiss the 70 million Americans who voted for Trump, describing them as speechless creatures who vote at the expense of their own interests.
In the domain of economics, the left does not yet have a good answer to the burning question of our time: Where to find good jobs? More progressive taxation, investments in education and infrastructure, as well as universal health insurance (in the United States) are very important. But that is not enough. Due to the current trends of technologization and globalization, there are fewer and fewer good jobs that kept the middle class alive. The covid-19 pandemic has further deepened the polarization in labor markets. That is why we need a proactive state strategy directly aimed at creating good jobs.
The high price paid by communities where good jobs disappear is not only economic. The number of addicts and broken families is growing in them, as is the crime rate. Community members react by sticking more firmly to traditional values, becoming less tolerant of outsiders and more willing to support authoritarian leaders. Thus, economic uncertainty encourages and deepens the lines of existing cultural and racial divisions.
The parties of the left must develop programmatic solutions for economic problems. But technocratic solutions will not be enough. It is necessary to invest a lot of effort in overcoming the deep divisions in society, for which the cultural elites are largely responsible. Otherwise, another unpleasant surprise awaits the Democrats in four years.
(Project Syndicate; peščanik.net; translation: Đ. Tomić)
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