Irreversibility threatens us, time is short

Last year, for the first time in human history, a cold climate system failed to cool the Earth. The consequences that we have seen "from a distance" are hints of what can be more both in scope and form - and in our environment. If today's trend continues, the so-called "safe limit" of warming will be exceeded already by the middle of 2030. Gradual warming will gradually have consequences for everyone, including us. We are talking about systematic and irreversible changes, which will affect the near future of us and our climate. Montenegro must intensify work on prevention and adaptation to climate change. Disaster is increasingly certain. There is not much time.

The last six years have been at the top of the warmest years, according to studies by the monitoring center, Climate Monitoring Service. Record-warm years, such as 2016, usually coincide with the phenomenon of the El Niño climate system, which marks its "warm phase". El Niño is felt on almost the entire planet, and especially in the tropical belt, often through extreme weather conditions, with heavy rains, or drought in different parts of the world.

However, it is particularly worrying that last year's record temperatures were not caused by El Niño. 2020 was the year of the “cold phase”, the so-called La Niña, which has a cooling effect. For the first time, La Niña did not cool the Earth enough, and did not prevent heat records last year. Catastrophes followed with a large number of hurricanes, floods and droughts, as well as fires that emitted enormous amounts of greenhouse gases in different parts of the world: Australia, Siberia, South America, and the West Coast of the USA. What does that have to do with Montenegro?

The report of the Climate Panel of the United Nations established that the limit of warming that must not be exceeded, the so-called "safe limit", is 1,5ºC, counting from the pre-industrial period, i.e. middle of the XIX century. The largest number of countries in the world, including Montenegro, committed in Paris in 2015 to keep the average increase in temperature below 2ºC, and to try to limit the increase in temperature to a safe limit. And yet the average global warming caused by human activity has already reached 1ºC, and in some parts of the world it is dangerously close to 1,5ºC.

In the Mediterranean area, the temperature is now a full 1,1ºC higher than the global average. Scientific modeling indicates undoubted consequences in the form of major droughts and even diseases in this region, in case of a possible warming of 2ºC. Currently, the Mediterranean region is warming 20 percent faster than the rest of the world, and if current policies continue, a temperature increase of as much as 2,2ºC is expected by 2040. This will have catastrophic consequences for the Mediterranean region: its flora, fauna, water resources, air, land and population.

This is more than enough reason to worry and take concrete actions that we have committed to as a state. Already in 2019, the number of climate refugees has exceeded the number of those fleeing war and conflicts. Migrations from the drier south to the wetter north are already evident in Europe. The only positive thing in all of this is that in the last 5 years, the number of people who are concerned about climate change, and who demand concrete actions from their governments, has doubled.

Where is Montenegro, and how can we act? Montenegro is small in terms of the size of the territory, so that its effect would be particularly visible, however, all countries are obliged to participate in the reduction of climate risk. In addition, Montenegro should initiate measures that will ensure the reduction of vulnerability and strengthening of resilience against climate change. In this sense, it is interesting for Montenegro that Croatia adopted in April 2020 Strategy for adaptation to climate change in the Republic of Croatia, for the period up to 2040 with a view to 2070.

Only by searching the website of the Montenegrin government, you can find some relevant information, although the site is unreviewed, and some of it contains outdated information. In addition, the language is difficult, bureaucratic. After visiting this site, one gets the impression that in Montenegro these topics are dealt with by the bureaucracy and a narrow circle of "specially interested" citizens. However, these are questions that concern the broad Montenegrin citizenry, these are topics that affect our everyday life, our lifestyle, and our functioning as a society. In the end, without the broad participation of citizens, the authorities will not even introduce changes worth mentioning.

The author is a B.Sc. Eng.