CLIMATE CHANGES IN THE BALKANS
While the governments of the Balkan countries are (again) recalculating the losses from this year's droughts and floods, the so-called COP23, another in a series of international climate conferences. What exactly was agreed and how will climate change affect the change in the political climate in our region?
The conference of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 23), the 23rd in a row, ended last Friday in Bonn. This is the second annual conference since the Paris Agreement, a political framework for climate change mitigation and adaptation, was adopted at the end of 2015.
As usual, the devil is in the details this time: as it often happens in international processes in which different geopolitical, public and corporate interests intertwine, the methods of application of the Paris Agreement are not precisely defined. It is agreed where we are going (toward zero emissions of the gases that cause climate change), but it is not agreed how to get there. This year's negotiations were supposed to answer exactly this question: how? That is why the negotiations had a pronounced technical character.
Is there hope for the climate?
It was discussed how measures to reduce emissions in different countries will be measured and compared, how to compensate for damages from the impact of climate change in the most vulnerable countries, and how to provide adequate financial support for all that.
The good news is that the technical negotiations on the implementation of the Paris Agreement were successful. However, nothing has been finalized, and the finalization of the negotiations is expected next year at a conference to be held in Katowice, Poland. Believe it or not, most disputes are caused by money: the issue that remains to be resolved concerns the financing of development support that developed countries (relatively, polluters) give to developing countries (especially those that have not contributed to climate change and are suffering catastrophic consequences). This year, developing countries especially insisted that developed countries commit to long-term planning of development aid, so that developing countries work in a more predictable and financially certain environment.
Unfortunately, all these efforts will remain insufficient if countries do not increase their targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and - more importantly - if they do not urgently start implementing them. Otherwise, a planet 3 degrees Celsius warmer awaits us. The temperature on earth is already more than 1°C warmer today compared to the period before the industrial revolution, so we are already witnessing storms, floods and droughts that are becoming more frequent and intense. If you are thinking about the urgency of the situation, just multiply your previous experience by 3, and you will better understand the urgency of moving from words to actions. The Western Balkan region is already suffering damages that are measured in billions of euros. It is certain that the forecast increase in temperature would have unfathomable consequences for our region as well.
That is why one of the biggest successes of this year's climate conference is the agreement on an open process, in which all countries will participate by evaluating their own climate goals. The fact that this will be a one-year process instills hope in the desired outcome, greater ambitions and faster reduction of harmful emissions.
Trump against the rest of the world (and some American states)
Again, a lot of attention was paid to American politicians due to the announcement of American President Trump that he was withdrawing the USA from the Paris Agreement. On the second day of this year's conference, Syria also announced its participation in the Paris Agreement, making the US the only country to oppose it.
Nevertheless, many American states and companies organized numerous events in Bonn to send a clear message that despite Trump, America is not giving up on the fight against climate change, investing in renewable energy sources and other clean technologies such as electric cars, green energy storage batteries etc.
Among the political leaders, China also stood out, which at home works a lot to reduce pollution and invest in renewable energy sources, although here in the Balkans it still supports, or rather finances, exploitation projects of the worst of all fossil fuels - coal.
This is not good, and even less necessary, considering the potential of renewable energy sources in our region, on the one hand, and Chinese achievements and technologies for their exploitation, on the other. Canada and Great Britain announced towards the end of the conference that they are joining the Alliance of Countries Abandoning Coal in Electricity Production. At the time of writing, more than 20 countries have already joined this Alliance. The goal is for them to be at least 50 by next year and to be joined by some of the countries that are still largely dependent on coal.
Balkans: in Bonn "Idola", at home "New Fossils"
Balkan countries usually cooperate closely with the EU at climate conferences. For us, conferences of this type are more significant from the aspect of exchanging experiences, learning and agreeing on technical and financial cooperation. The conference also includes a "high-level" segment, in which high-ranking officials make statements.
Government representatives from the region also had two regional meetings on the sidelines of the meetings in Bonn, one would say with the usual result: a lot of talk and nice promises. Unfortunately, the actions at home say otherwise.
Just two days after the end of the conference, the foundation stone was laid in Serbia for the start of the construction of a new coal-fired thermal power plant, controversial on several grounds.
In Montenegro, the Government is also planning the construction of a new thermal power plant. Along with the formal confirmation of the agreement, the Republic of Montenegro must also prepare for its implementation. This implies harmonizing the national climate and energy policy with the goals of the Paris Agreement and EU legislation. Namely, although it seems ambitious and is presented as such to the public, the INDC of Montenegro, i.e. the target for reducing GHG emissions which foresees a 30% reduction compared to the base year 1990, in practice actually means an increase in emissions compared to current values. Due to the drastic decline in economic activity since 1990, in 2013, Montenegro recorded GHG emissions less by about 40% compared to 1990, so that the promised reduction of 30% within the INDC in practice enables an increase in emissions compared to the current situation by about 10% . Therefore, the Montenegrin goal for reducing GHG emissions should be in line with the EU's goals, which currently aims to reduce emissions by at least 40% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
To make the composition of "New Fossils" even more complete, the Government in Macedonia is also planning the construction of a new thermo-block.
A fair transition to (Southeastern) Europe without coal is necessary!
No one disputes the complexity of the transition from fossil to sustainable energy sources. "Transition", like a diagnosis of the chronic condition of post-communist, post-Yugoslav, post-conflict societies in the region, has taken root in our vocabulary as a common denominator for many negative experiences. The fact that the transition is not easy and that it takes time in our region is like a broken record.
However, another one, the so-called "Just Transition", promises more understanding, international solidarity, an opportunity for an orderly change in employment and new, green economic growth. Europe is also debating the means to invest in such a just change of the local communities that will carry it out. It is about the transition to a coal-free Europe, which is also the name of the campaign we are conducting with our colleagues across our continent. Europe, however, will not be like that, if "New Fossils" play in its southeastern part: instead of (new) coal-fired power plants, let's be "Idols", and let there be "No smoking" over the old power plants by 2030!
D. Milev Čavor - Green Home; D. Mileusnić - CAN Climate Action Network
Bonus video:
