As one reflects on the latest failure of the European Union (EU) to mediate the political crisis in Georgia, it is tempting to compare it to the European bloc's strenuous attempts to normalize relations between Serbia and Kosovo that have been going on for a decade.
Although one should refrain from drawing too many parallels between the geopolitical issue in the Western Balkans and the domestic one in the South Caucasus, they have one striking thing in common: Brussels' lack of appeal in its neighborhood.
The main reason for this is that the EU seems to have forgotten why it won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012.
Take a stroll through the Justus Lipsius building, which houses the Council of the European Union and provides the backdrop for countless EU summits. It might be the height of EU power, but there's not much to see here, apart from gray offices, old carpets and an overpriced pub.
But two things stand out. One is a bust of Justus Lipsius himself, the Flemish Renaissance scholar, which is often the best place to catch EU diplomats between political negotiations and coffee breaks.
The second is a replica of the Nobel Peace Prize itself with its associated diploma in a display case that takes pride of place in the middle of the main corridor, alongside the union flag and the flags of the 27 member states.
The EU is rightly proud to have received the highest political prize, but look more closely at why the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the club the highest honor nine years ago and you will see that it was actually awarded for EU enlargement.
Although the citation accompanying the award highlights the European Union's contribution over six decades to "the promotion of peace and reconciliation, democracy and human rights in Europe", what follows is a rapid history highlighting the bloc's expansion, beginning with the post-war reconciliation between France and Germany and then jumping to the addition of new democratic countries in the south in the 70s and 80s, followed by the inclusion of several Central and Eastern European countries at the beginning of this century "where democracy has been strengthened and conflict stopped".
The statement ends by addressing the present with the following sentence: "The Nobel Committee also believes that the issue of EU membership strengthens the reconciliation process after the wars in the Balkan states, and that the desire for EU membership has also promoted democracy and human rights in Turkey."
And there is the crux of the matter.
Since receiving the award at a glittering gala dinner in Oslo at the end of 2012, the EU has only added one new member, Croatia, half a year after the glorious night in Norway.
Meanwhile, the UK has left and we're back to plus-minus zero. There is not a single country that is close to joining the club and currently EU enlargement is really dead.
Now, of course, it can be rightly pointed out that none of the countries that are waiting in line, like Turkey and several countries of the Western Balkans, are ready for membership, and in many cases they themselves are to blame. They failed to implement reforms, are haunted by corruption and sometimes continue to quarrel with their neighbors.
Countries in the eastern part of the bloc, such as Georgia, but also Moldova and Ukraine, are also struggling with frozen conflicts that the Kremlin drags them into, placing them in an even lower category - nowhere close to becoming candidates for EU membership.
It is also true that the EU, as a whole, has lost all appetite for adding new members, and this reluctance applies to all its neighbors - from Pristina to Tbilisi. Several EU member states wanted the enlargement portfolio in the Commission, which could explain why it was given to the political black sheep of the family - Hungary.
Union enlargement is not part of any serious strategy that Brussels is considering in thinking about its future, and whenever a country is making good progress, like North Macedonia, there is always one or a few member states ready to block the process at any time.
Therefore, it is not surprising that Kosovo or Serbia or various political factions in Georgia do not pay too much attention to the demands of EU mediators. Why would I? Where's the carrot?
Kosovo officials can easily sense that the promise of visa liberalization remains empty, their Serbian counterparts can note that not a single chapter on EU accession was opened last year, and Georgians are well aware that there are EU capitals that struggle even to recognize that the country is fully European. By the same token, the stick is equally futile.
Should these countries be placed further down a waiting line that may not even exist?
Eurocrats and some Western European politicians may not want to hear it, busy with endless domestic issues, but the Norwegian Nobel Committee was probably right. The expansion of the club has transformed the continent for the better, and only the continuation of that task can truly make the EU a player in its environment and beyond.
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