EU enlargement to the Balkans is dead - EEA is now a realistic path

Of course, there are still experts for the Balkans. Who are not idle even though the European public is almost not interested in the region. On the contrary. Think tanks, diplomats and academics continue to write reports on how countries in the region must change to join the European Union. Only: few people want to read those reports.

Unfortunately, experts too rarely turn to the question: how does the EU have to change in order for the Balkan countries to join? The reversal in approach does not refer to the "Balkanization" of Europe, but to the "Europeanization" of the Balkans. And those two terms are not analytically productive anyway.

The goal is to find new forms of connection for the six countries of the Western Balkans: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. This requires institutional creativity, but also a new geopolitical commitment to the region.

After the entry of Croatia, the expansion was stopped

In 2013, the European Union last admitted a new country to its membership with Croatia. Croatia's accession process lasted nine years. Since then, EU expansion has stalled. Serbia has been conducting accession negotiations since 2014, and Montenegro since 2012. But the negotiations of these two countries with the EU are not moving from the deadlock. The hope that the accession process will positively change the candidates is also proving to be an illusion.

An illiberal democracy based on the Hungarian model has been established in Serbia, whose legitimacy is confirmed in every election. But since the ruling party strangles the judiciary and the media, the elections are not fair: the opposition has virtually no chance of coming to power. Today, Serbia is a one-party state.

Talks with Montenegro are also stagnating. After decades of dominance by the Đukanović clan, the country was paralyzed by the power struggle between the two blocs.

At one time, something was happening in North Macedonia and Albania. Countries have undertaken tough reforms amid promises from the European Commission that they will soon be allowed to start accession talks. But Brussels had to break its word because at least one EU member state repeatedly vetoed it: the Netherlands, France and finally the neighbor Bulgaria, which declared the Bulgarianization of the Macedonian understanding of history a prerequisite. Before that, Macedonia's other neighbor, Greece, also changed its name: it became North Macedonia.

In the end, Bosnia and Herzegovina is not even a candidate, and Kosovo cannot become one because five EU member states do not recognize it as a state at all.

It is obvious: EU enlargement in the Balkans is dead. Both the Union and the candidates lack the political will and ability to take decisive steps towards integration.

Why the Balkans are still so important

However, it is necessary to keep the region with you. For three reasons.

First, these countries have close economic ties with the EU. Three quarters of all trade is done with the EU, where most of the investments come from. But for European companies, the Balkan countries are only a source of cheap labor. Prosperity and the creation of additional values ​​on the ground remain small. The large gap in wealth between the region and the EU average is the main reason for the huge population outflow from the Balkans to the Union. Since the 1990s, the Balkans have lost a quarter of their population in this way. Today, there are about as many people living in these six countries as there are in the Turkish metropolis of Istanbul: 18 million.

Other post-socialist countries have shown that integration into the EU changes the situation. In 1999, Lithuania had a gross domestic product of 37% of the EU average: in 2018, 14 years after joining, its GDP rose to 81%. The same data for Romania: 26% in 1999 and then 66% in 2018.

Another, only a close relationship with the EU (and NATO) guarantees peaceful development. Since the breakup of Yugoslavia, state and ethnic borders have not coincided. This primarily refers to the areas inhabited by the two largest nations, Albanians and Serbs. By binding with the EU, the borders will be both solid and porous at the same time. This reduces the risks of territorial claims and prevents unilateral border changes.

Third, with China and Russia, there are powers in the region that pursue different strategic interests than the EU. They have the means to turn the region into a thorn in the flesh of Europe: by inciting conflict (Moscow) or bringing countries into debt slavery through infrastructure projects (Beijing). The best antidote is the European structural funds and the flourishing of economic relations with the EU.

The EU is a difficult partner

Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama calls the EU a capricious bride. One of those who know how not to come to the scheduled wedding. Not that he's wrong. It would be better if the EU finally told the truth to the Balkans: there is no marriage - nor will there be, but let's talk about registered partnership.

How can it be realized?

France has never shown enthusiasm for the idea of ​​expanding the EU to the east. This was at odds with her desire to deepen ties within the EU itself. This is exactly why Great Britain advocated for EU enlargement. But the British are now out of the game. Berlin always advocated expansion to the East, because it strengthened its influence. But German enthusiasm has waned over the past decade, since Merkel has been in power.

Instead of vigorously tackling the enlargement story and bringing the unreasonable to reason, Berlin invented various "processes": supposedly to "make the countries ready for EU membership". And the truth is: the Berlin and other "processes" are a series of conferences where diplomats, politicians and representatives of non-governmental organizations always tell the same story. And they die of boredom.

So new ideas are needed. They exist, and they are not completely new. One of the fathers of these ideas is Balkan expert Dušan Reljić from the Berlin Foundation for Science and Politics (SVP). The European Stability Initiative (ESI) also bases its recommendations on facts, not wishful thinking. From which comes the fundamental idea: if political integration is not possible today, then let's complete economic integration. It is feasible, because, after all, it is a population of only 4% of the EU population, says Reljić. There is already an institutional form for such integration: the European Economic Area (EEA). Established in 1994, it forms a deepened free trade area with the EU. So far the members are Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway.

By joining the internal market, the six countries of the Western Balkans would benefit from the four freedoms: free movement of goods, capital, services and people. Even enlargement skeptics within the EU itself can hardly make any good arguments against it. Finally, there are clear criteria related to EEA membership, not only regarding the rule of law.

A sparrow in the hand instead of a dove on a branch

It is more likely that objections will come from the Balkan countries. The reformers there will be particularly dissatisfied with the "B-membership" offer. But things are as they are: this status can be achieved in a few years, it promises investment and economic growth. It is not a long-term goal like joining the EU, in which no one really believes anymore. In addition, it cannot be ruled out that - sometime later - some of the Balkan countries - in the second stage - will make real efforts to join the EU.

Without the economic recovery of the exhausted middle class, the fight against "state capture" and autocrats in the Balkan states has no chance. Commitment to democracy is a lost cause when emigration of the well-educated is the last option for a decent life.

Over the years, the European Union has gradually lost its credibility for the Balkan sextet of states. It was a road paved with good intentions. Who got lost in the fog today.

It's time for a new beginning, in which both sides have to tell each other very uncomfortable truths. Edi Rama would probably agree: realistic demands towards a partner are a prerequisite for a good relationship to function.

New Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ)

Translation: Mirko Vuletić