In his recent essay on great power competition and climate change, Rob Litvak, an arms control expert at the Wilson Center, recalled a question President Ronald Reagan asked Mikhail Gorbachev, the president of the Soviet Union, during a meeting in 1985.
This is how Gorbachev later told it:
“President Reagan suddenly said to me, 'What would you do if the United States were suddenly attacked by someone from deep space? Would you help us?'”
"I said, 'Don't doubt it.'"
"He replied: 'And we would to you.'"
"Well, that was interesting," concluded Gorbachev.
It is interesting, because it is no longer so certain, given the growing crowd in the race for the status of a great power, that Russia, China and America would help each other in the event of an invasion by aliens who want to spoil us all. Litvak's point was, of course, that exactly such a danger threatens us, but from climate change.
Unlike aliens, however, there is not the slightest chance to negotiate with Mother Nature. And she is not at all interested in where the borders of Russia, America or China end and begin.
And yet, neither Chinese President Xi Jinping nor Russian leader Vladimir Putin attended the climate summit in Glasgow where they would have met with President Joe Biden and other world leaders. More importantly, the Washington Post recently reported that individuals in China's top state want to resist any cooperation with the United States on the climate issue unless the U.S. eases pressure on China over "human rights, Hong Kong, Taiwan, trade and other issues." .
We have never seen Beijing's tactics like this before: we are ready to clean up our air, but only if you allow us to cover the skies above Taiwan with planes and suck the breath of freedom out of Hong Kong.
A senior US official told me that there are actually differing views in the echelons of government in Beijing about the wisdom of this diplomatic climate strategy, which is being pushed by Foreign Minister Wang Yi. There are other more prominent communist politicians who want to cooperate with Washington and who understand that when it comes to the climate, we are all in the same boat. And yet, even the hint of this strategy of taking Earth hostage is deeply troubling and must be brought to light.
"The space for humanity to avoid an incredible catastrophe is shrinking," Litvak wrote in the essay. "China, the United States and Russia are the first, second and third largest emitters of carbon dioxide. But, at this historical crossroads, when we need unprecedented global cooperation in order to prevent all the dark consequences, the world is actually in the midst of a battle for geostrategic supremacy. United States relations with Russia and China are at their worst since the end of the Cold War.”
We have already seen how deadly the lack of global unity can be: when we were hit by covid-19. But this is even more dangerous. An armed conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan or between NATO and Russia over Ukraine—at a time when self-inflicted climate change is holding a gun to our foreheads—would be pure madness. But he is possible.
Instead of an arms race or a race for space, we need a race for the Earth, a great competition between the leading powers to reach the goal of zero emissions first and as soon as possible. I'd really like to see Biden, Xi, and Putin go at it.
Biden could have said this: “I know climate change is a global problem, and it's not enough for us to clean up our air if you don't clean up yours. But we will not use that as an excuse, and we will not allow our oil or coal industries to use that as an excuse, to do nothing until you do something. Because today there are 7,9 billion people living on the planet, and by 2030 there will be 600 million more - 600 million more! This means that, with or without climate change, there will be more mouths to feed, more houses to live in, more traffic to navigate, all of which require clean energy, clean water, and energy-efficient buildings and cars. They must be the new global industry. If that doesn't happen, we will all suffocate from pollution. If you want to keep burning coal and give us a five-year head start in this new global industry, so be it. As for me, I will declare America's desire to win the race for Earth, for America to be the first country to use clean technologies and to lower their cost so that everyone on our planet can afford them."
A gauntlet in the face of China and Russia in the battle of who can achieve more global sustainability, not just global resistance, could be a way for America to regain its moral leadership on the world stage, and to turn the economy towards the industry of the future. If we humans do not want to become just a bad biological experiment, zero-emission power lines, zero-emission transportation, green buildings and green production must be the focus of the future.
And while Russia is not currently a player in this competition, I wouldn't bet against China.
Hal Harvey, who heads the climate analysis firm Energy Innovation and advises governments on how to embark on a green transition, says the United States has set its goal when it wants to have a zero-emissions economy - in 2050 - and Biden is now trying to fill and goals with concrete plans. But he'll have to do it without a single helping vote from Republicans.
China, on the other hand, has incredibly detailed decarbonization plans, which Beijing could launch very soon.
But Xi now wants his economy to grow, in order to secure a third presidential term for himself. For this reason, it will do nothing to diminish China's growth, and thereby undermine its own popularity. China will continue to consume coal for some time to come. But don't let that fool you: Beijing is also building a huge number of solar, wind, hydro and nuclear power plants. The game has begun.
As long as both countries are focused on the race for Earth, it doesn't matter which one wins, because their competition will lower the cost of clean electricity for all of us. And if they slow down or stop doing this, maybe we should fantasize about some aliens who will take us to their planet.
(The New York Times International Report; Nedeljnik.rs/6yka.com)
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