While most of Europe has been gripped by some kind of political or economic turmoil in recent years, it seems ironic that the country most often associated with general dysfunctionality, namely Italy, has proven to be extremely stable and impressive.
This image, however, could be disrupted as early as January 24, when the election of a new president begins, who will reside in the imposing Quirinal Palace in Rome for the next seven years. The thing is that the same man whom many associate with Italy's worst sins, Silvio Berlusconi, has a chance to win. In order for such a thing to happen, one should first understand the way in which the president of Italy is elected. This is not done at polling stations across the country. The president is elected by 1.008 men and women, including members of the House of Representatives and the Senate of the Republic, as well as representatives of regional authorities.
There are no official candidates, and the only condition a candidate must meet is to be Italian over 50 years of age and not legally prohibited from holding public office. This means that celebrities and ordinary citizens have their chance. In the first three rounds of voting, the candidate must secure the support of two-thirds of the electors, and this requirement is reduced to a simple majority in each subsequent round. The entire procedure takes days, with much bartering on the sidelines, making the process very similar to the Papal conclave convened to elect a new head of the Roman Catholic Church. This kind of environment is perfect for old "political foxes" like Silvio Berlusconi, now 85 years old.
Italy's longest-serving post-war prime minister broke with conventions and publicly announced that he would like to crown his political career with a presidential mandate. In addition to his center-right Forza Italia party, Berlusconi enjoys moderate support from larger right-wing populist parties such as Lega Nord and Fratelli d'Italia. This of course set off red flags in all other spheres of the political spectrum, where they are horrified at the idea that this could become another in a series of political triumphs for the media tycoon, convicted fraudster and host of notorious bunga-bunga parties. However, there is still no vocal support for the obvious opponent, Berlusconi's antithesis - Mario Draghi.
The main reason is that, as an independent, technocratic prime minister, he still presides not only over a broad and so far harmonious coalition government, but also over a social reform program that has enabled aid of 200 billion euros from EU funds, a much-needed injection to post-pandemic Italy.
If he takes a new step and becomes president, the question is whether the coalition will besiege until the next parliamentary elections in 2023, or whether special elections will throw populists into power and equally scare the market and EU partners, as many times before? Suddenly, it's no longer about finding the best man for the job, but more about cynical calculations of who would profit most from a snap general election. This means that Berlusconi still has a chance. Dragi is believed to be interested in becoming president. Although the position is more ceremonial than prime ministerial, it still carries a certain weight. The Italian president has the power to dissolve parliament and appoint a prime minister. The fact that presidents have been in that position for seven long years also means that they can establish political authority and act as the government's limiting factor.
However, as an independent candidate, he does not actually have the support of any major political party and a recent survey among parliamentarians showed that only a third of them are ready to vote for him.
Despite the fact that he enjoys the confidence of the country's business community and is seen by most Italians as possessing the qualities necessary for the top job, people are worried about what will happen to the government if he leaves. The concern is justified, given Italy's history.
Since World War II Italy has had 67 governments, far more compared to (West) Germany's 25 and Great Britain's 26. Almost all of them were either painfully weak or ridiculed from abroad. On the other hand, Dragi is probably the most respected politician in the EU at the moment. As governor of the central bank of Italy, he led the country out of the debt crisis and his competences once again convinced northern and thrifty countries, such as Germany and the Netherlands, to entrust the job of president of the European Central Bank (ECN) to a southerner like him in 2011. During his eight years in office, Dragi, more than anyone else, was praised for his services in saving the euro.
No wonder he is known as "Super Mario" in Brussels. And it's no wonder that Italians want to keep the good feeling a little longer. With an internationally recognized premiere and victories at Eurovision and Euro, 2021 was the year of the final Italian "comeback". Even the respected British magazine The Economist declared it "country of the year", stating that "this time, most politicians have overcome their differences to support fundamental reforms". They also pointed out the large percentage of people vaccinated against covid and that the Italian economy is recovering faster than other large EU members. So what will happen next week? All options are in play. It could be Berlusconi, or Draghi, or maybe some kind of compromise, someone whose name has not been mentioned so far. It could even happen that the current 80-year-old president Sergio Mattarella breaks the conventions and asks for re-election, although he has so far firmly denied it.
For many, both in Italy and elsewhere in Europe, at least some kind of stability in a country accustomed to political drama would be the desired start of 2022.
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