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Why China will not mediate in ending the war in Ukraine

If, apart from Vladimir Putin, there is another person who can end the Russian war in Ukraine, it is Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, Xi has remained on the sidelines until now and will probably remain there because of various sensitive points on the domestic political scene, but also because of his own lack of courage and imagination.

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Photo: Reuters
Photo: Reuters
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

Russian President Vladimir Putin counted on the quick capture of Kiev and the removal of the Ukrainian government. Whether misled by bad intelligence or his own historical fantasies, his "smash and grab" failed in the face of effective Ukrainian resistance. Then he moved on to brutal bombings of cities, such as Mariupol and Kharkiv, in order not to intimidate the civilian population and force them to submit, as he had previously done in Grozny and Aleppo. The tragic result of this is that the heroic resistance of Ukraine has been accompanied by an increase in the suffering of the civilian population.

Is there a way to quickly end this nightmare? One possibility is that Chinese President Xi Jinping sees this as his "Teddy Roosevelt moment." Roosevelt mediated after the brutal war between Russia and Japan in 1905. He stubbornly insisted that the parties reach a compromise, and in the end he won, thus increasing America's global influence, and won the Nobel Peace Prize. Turkey, Israel and France (among others) are trying to mediate Russia's ongoing war, but they don't have as much leverage over Putin as his ally Xi. And the question is whether Si has the imagination and courage to use it.

For now, the answer is - no. Although China has long presented itself as a defender of the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity, it patiently tolerates Putin's brazen violation of the United Nations Charter. When the UN Security Council voted for a resolution condemning the Russian invasion, China abstained. She criticized Western sanctions against Russia and repeated Russian propaganda that the war was caused by America's plans to expand NATO, even though it was clear for years that NATO members would not vote for Ukraine's membership in the Alliance.

China's reluctance to criticize Russia has left it on the sidelines of diplomacy, unable to exert influence commensurate with its growing economic and military power. Although Chinese censors restrict most news coverage of the war, some in Beijing openly question how far China's current diplomatic posture serves its national interest. For example, Wang Huijao, president of the Center for China and Globalization in Beijing, suggests that China mediate in order to provide Putin with a "retreat" from his disastrous policy toward Ukraine.

Why might this be in China's interest? First, China's current stance undermines its claim to be the protector of sovereignty, which it uses when addressing its neighbors in Southeast Asia. Equally important, the war weakens China's soft power in Europe, with which it trades five times more than with Russia. The war also raised the price of oil and grain imported by China. Grain prices will be felt even more if China faces severe flooding, as it did last year.

As the war drags on and Western sanctions tighten, there is a danger that secondary sanctions will spread to China and harm it. Allowing Putin to salvage his reputation could eliminate this and other risks associated with war. And that would deepen Russia's growing dependence on Beijing, which would strengthen China's global image and reputation. Si might even win the Nobel Peace Prize.

Of course, such an initiative would entail a certain price. Cautious Chinese diplomats view the war in Ukraine as a distinctly European conflict. If that conflict undermines the strength of older powers such as Europe, the United States and Russia, then China may benefit from standing back and allowing the conflict to play itself out. Additionally, while war weakens an ally (a potential cost), it also changes the global political agenda in a way that benefits China. The United States can no longer talk about a pivot to Asia, where it would focus its attention on China.

After the 2008 financial crisis, Chinese leaders concluded that the United States was in decline, prompting them to abandon Deng Xiaoping's patient and cautious foreign policy. Since then, nationalism has grown in the country, and Xi has expressed the hope that by 2049 - the centenary of the People's Republic of China - China will finally supplant the US in geopolitical terms.

The primary obstacle to Xi's dream is, of course, the United States, as well as China's lack of allies, other than Russia. Xi and Putin have forged a personal relationship that has solidified what was previously an alliance of calculations. Even if the war in Ukraine has made that alliance somewhat less palatable, Xi may still find it wise to "dance with whoever brought you to the party."

Besides, pulling off even a Rooseveltian move would probably require more imagination and flexibility from the Chinese leadership than it has. There is also an internal political element that a Chinese friend pointed out to me recently: with Xi running for a third presidential term this year, it is most important for him to maintain the Communist Party's control of the country and his control of the party.

As economic growth slowed, the party increasingly relied on nationalism to legitimize its rule. This is precisely why Chinese official media and nationalist websites repeat Putin's claims that Ukraine is a puppet of the West and that Russia opposes American intimidation of both Russia and China. Support for Putin's war is consistent with China's nationalist "wolf warrior diplomacy."

But while Putin's invasion has turned world politics upside down, it has not changed the basic balance of power. If anything, it strengthened the US position a bit. The NATO-America alliance is solidified, with Germany taking a far stronger defensive position than at any time in recent decades. At the same time, Russia's reputation as a formidable military power was dealt a serious blow. Its economy is weakened and its soft power lies in ruins.

China can no longer tout the alliance of autocracies as proof that the east wind is overpowering the west. China can still influence the current dynamics if it takes advantage of Roosevelt's model. I doubt that will happen, though.

The author is a professor at Harvard

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2022.

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