Of all the goods that are increasingly difficult to reach, the most difficult to reach is normality. No one knows for sure what it might look like anymore, nor does anyone offer it for mass use.
The shortage of such valuables increased sharply with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We are all convinced, as Noam Chomsky suggested, that this evil can end in only two ways: that one of the opposing approaches be defeated or that the conflict be ended by an agreement between the two parties. But, as this text goes to press, moves are being made that do not herald either of those two epilogues.
Vladimir Putin did not even hesitate to say that he sent the army to Ukraine to deal with Nazism there (which according to others does not exist), just like the Red Army in World War II. In other words, that he must not suffer defeat.
Volodymyr Zelensky, who has been threatened with overthrow from the Kremlin, is also counting on victory, with increasingly strong support from the West. It offers certain concessions that are not enough for Moscow, and which America thinks are not even necessary.
At the same time, two opposing calculations crossed paths. Russia embarked on its armed adventure with the assumption that the West is so divided that it can retaliate against it for expansion to the east and recover at least part of the lost Soviet empire. Washington, on the other hand, got the impression that Moscow had engaged in a counterproductive operation, so now is the moment to practically break its spine, with its strong support for the fighting Ukraine.
The first calculation turned out to be wrong because the West has strategically united more than ever in recent times and the thesis that Nazism prevails in Ukraine, which is headed by a Jew, has not passed. The second one is under scrutiny because American experts also warn that, backed into a corner, Putin could start a nuclear war, which would put the survival of humanity in question.
It was Joe Biden who expressed his concern that "Putin does not have an exit strategy" in the Ukrainian war, so he will think about how to make it possible for him. The head of the White House, admittedly, has a bad track record with an exit strategy, having executed one recently in Afghanistan in an extremely chaotic fashion.
Emmanuel Macron, on the other hand, is looking for a new strategy for the EU, which was further encouraged by the Ukrainian war to reconsider both its internal organization and its place in the world. His two proposals attracted special attention.
First, to establish a qualified majority vote instead of a mandatory consensus in making important EU decisions. Second, that the EU should not be expanded until further notice, but that a new gathering in the "European political community" should be opened for all candidates, which would cooperate closely with the EU, but without joining it.
In both cases, his goal was to increase the efficiency of the European performance. The slow decision-making process in the EU is often cited as its disadvantage in competition with fast-moving autocracies such as Russia and China, and even with its ally the USA. Also, the procedure for admitting new members has been getting more difficult for years, so it would be more appropriate for the candidates to "tie" themselves to the EU, in a less binding, strategically verifiable and innovative way.
13 members have already opposed the waiver of unanimity. And Macron's clarification that even the endangered Ukraine could wait perhaps 10 years for membership will probably cause excitement among EU candidates from the Western Balkans.
On the one hand, it could be good for them that Ukraine will not "skip" them. On the other hand, when the perspective is postponed for her as extremely endangered, while she stands directly on the bumper of democratic Europe - isn't this a sign that others will also be placed in an insufficiently viewed perspective, in a position similar to a pendant, needed only as a guarantee that they will not deviate towards Russia and China.
Macron's originality will be discussed at length, partly based on the results of the European consultation with the mass of citizens, who presented 49 initiatives with more than 17.000 ideas from ecology and media freedom to faster decision-making for the general welfare. It also seems that the journey of the Western Balkans towards the EU could be prolonged.
The local autocrat found himself in the dark. He had to apologize that Putin's comparison of Kosovo with the Russian amputations of Ukraine made Serbia's position difficult, and that the EU is sacred to us, but that we do not renounce Russia and that without Germany we "would not even survive".
He got so wise that he didn't even appear at the commemoration of Victory Day and Europe Day, contenting himself with the fact that on the very date of the international celebration of past feats, he finally received official confirmation that he would be following a second five-year term. He is aware, one would say, that he is facing strategic choices - towards the West, with the introduction of sanctions against Russia, or he will be sanctioned.
He also knows that those elections will be more important for him than the ones he won. An elaborate entry strategy was enough for him to win here, and to get out of the international labyrinth, which is finally imposed on him, there is only one realistic, strictly controlled, and already quite congested exit - to the EU...
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