Are sanctions useful to Russia? Yes, they are already hitting Vladimir Putin and his accomplices hard, and their impact on the Russian economy will increase over time.
Since Russia deliberately violated international law by invading Ukraine, the European Union adopted a six-pack of sanctions against Moscow. Our measures now target nearly 1.200 individuals and 98 organizations in Russia, as well as a significant number of sectors of the Russian economy. These sanctions were adopted in coordination with the G7 members. Their effectiveness is enhanced by the fact that over forty other countries have adopted them or taken similar measures (including traditionally neutral countries).
By the end of 2022, we will reduce the import of Russian oil by 90% and we are rapidly reducing the import of gas. These decisions are gradually freeing us from the addiction that has long hampered our political choices in the face of Vladimir Putin's aggressiveness. He probably believed that Europe would not dare to engage in sanctions because of its energy dependence. This is not the least of many miscalculations by the Russian regime during this conflict. Of course, the rapid weaning from Russian energy also creates serious difficulties for many EU countries and for several economic sectors. But this is the price we must pay to defend our democracies and international law, and we are taking the necessary steps to deal with these problems in full solidarity.
Some may ask, do these sanctions really affect the Russian economy? The simple answer is yes. Although Russia exports many raw materials, it also has no choice but to import many high-value-added products that it does not produce. For all advanced technologies, 45% depend on Europe and 21% on the United States, compared to only 11% on China.
In the military field, which is crucial in the context of the war in Ukraine, the sanctions limit Russia's capacity to produce precision missiles such as the Iskander or the KH 101. Almost all foreign car manufacturers have also decided to withdraw from Russia, and several Russian-made cars will be sold no airbags or automatic transmission.
The oil industry suffers not only from the departure of foreign operators, but also from difficulties in accessing advanced technologies such as horizontal drilling. The Russian industry's ability to start new wells is likely to be limited. Ultimately, in order to maintain air traffic, Russia will have to retire most of its planes to recover the spare parts needed to keep the others flying. Added to this is the loss of access to financial markets, exclusion from large global research networks and a massive brain drain.
As for the alternative that China offers to the Russian economy, it is in reality limited, especially for high-tech products. The Chinese government, which is highly dependent on its exports to developed countries, has so far not helped Russia circumvent Western sanctions. China's exports to Russia fell in line with the exports of Western countries.
Will these significant and growing influences lead Vladimir Putin to modify his strategic calculations? Probably not in the near future: his actions are not driven primarily by economic logic. However, by forcing him to choose "butter or guns", the sanctions lock him into a situation where the hoop is gradually tightening.
Regarding the impact of these sanctions on third countries, especially African countries, which depend on Russian and Ukrainian wheat and fertilizers, the responsibility in terms of the food crisis is clear. Our sanctions do not in any way target the export of Russian wheat or fertilizer, while Ukraine is prevented from exporting its wheat due to the Black Sea blockade as well as the devastation caused by Russian aggression. If such questions related to our sanctions should arise, we are ready to establish appropriate mechanisms to resolve them. I informed my African colleagues about this and asked them not to be misled by the falsehoods of the Russian authorities about our sanctions.
The real answer to the difficulties in the world energy and food market is the end of the war. This cannot be achieved by accepting Russian dictates, it can only be achieved by Russia's withdrawal from Ukraine. Respect for the territorial integrity of states and the non-use of force are not Western or European principles. They are the basis of all international law. Russia tramples them carelessly. Accepting such a violation would open the door to the law of the jungle on a global scale.
Contrary to what we rather naively thought just a few years ago, economic interdependence does not automatically imply the pacification of international relations. That is why the transition to Europe as a power, which I have been referring to since the beginning of my mandate, is imperative. In the face of the invasion of Ukraine, we began to move from intention to action, showing that, when provoked, Europe can respond. Because we don't want to go to war with Russia, economic sanctions are now at the heart of this response. They are already starting to work, and will do so even more in the coming months.
It is the author high representative of the EU and vice president of the European Commission
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