The United States appears to have entered a new cold war with China and Russia. American leaders portray it as a conflict between democracy and authoritarianism, but that interpretation is not convincing, especially if we see that the same leaders actively support countries where human rights are systematically violated, such as Saudi Arabia. This hypocrisy leads to the conclusion that the fight is not only for declared values but, at least in part, for the status of a global hegemon.
There is no doubt that in the two decades after the fall of the Iron Curtain, the USA was number 1 in the world. But then came unnecessary wars in the Middle East, the 2008 financial meltdown, rising inequality, the opioid addiction epidemic, and other crises that cast doubt on the superiority of the American economic model. Moreover, the period between Trump's victory and the coup attempt at the Capitol, as well as numerous cases of mass murder, the Republican Party's efforts to disenfranchise some voters, and the proliferation of conspiracy theories such as QAnon, provide increasing indications that some aspects of American political and social life entered the field of pathology.
America, of course, does not want to be deposed from the world throne. But it is clear that sooner or later China will overtake it economically, regardless of what economic indicators we use. China has 4 times more inhabitants than America and its economy has been growing 3 times faster than America's for several decades (measured by purchasing power parity, China overtook America in 2015).
So far, China has not made any moves to declare itself as a strategic threat to America, but there is no doubt that it is. In Washington, a consensus was reached between both leading parties that China could be a strategic threat and that the least America has to do is to at least stop helping the further growth of its economy, which means that preventive measures are necessary, even though this violates the rules of the World Trade Organization, which was written and promoted by America.
This front in the new cold war was opened long before Russia began its invasion of Ukraine. US officials often warn that this war must not distract us from China as a much more serious long-term threat. Given that Russia's economy is roughly the size of Spain's, its close partnership with China is of little economic importance (although a willingness to engage in disruptive activities around the world may benefit its larger southern neighbor).
Every country at war needs a strategy. The United States cannot win the race for superpower status without allies: it needs friends. America's natural allies are Europe and developed democracies around the world. But Trump has done everything he could to alienate such potential allies, and the Republicans - who remain loyal to him - are making many countries question whether the US can be a reliable partner at all. Also, America would have to win the hearts and minds of billions of people in the developing world—not just because of their numbers, but also to ensure access to critically important resources.
To win back the favor of the world, the US must make up for a lot of lost ground. A long history of exploitation of other countries does not work in their favor, nor does deep-rooted racism - a force that Trump skillfully and cynically uses. Government policymakers in the United States have recently built vaccination apartheid, a system in which rich countries get all the vaccines they need, while people in poorer countries are left to fend for themselves. On the other hand, America's adversaries in the new cold war are offering vaccines to other countries at the same or lower price and even helping them start vaccine production themselves.
The gap between the two worlds is even deeper if we take as an example the campaign to stop climate change, which disproportionately affects the global south, that is, the countries that have the least opportunities to implement the planned measures. It is true that developing countries today produce the largest share of greenhouse gas emissions, but the US's cumulative emissions are still the largest in the world. Developed countries continue to contribute to overall emissions and, worse, fail to fulfill promises made to poor countries to help them manage the consequences of the climate crisis produced by the rich world. Instead, American banks are deepening the coming debt crisis in numerous countries with their practices and showing indifference to the suffering that results from it.
Europe and America are second to none in lecturing others about what is morally right and economically reasonable. But the message that gets through - as the insistence on agricultural subsidies in the US and Europe makes clear - is usually: listen to what we say, don't watch what we do. After Trump's mandate, America no longer has the right to act from a position of moral superiority and has no credibility to give advice to others. Neoliberalism and the economics of the tide that lifts all boats in the harbor have never been widely accepted in the Global South, and are now falling out of fashion in the rest of the world as well.
On the other hand, China does not give lectures to poor countries but builds their infrastructure. True, those countries remain in debt, but if we keep in mind how Western banks behaved in the role of creditors in developing countries, the United States and others hardly have the right to complain.
I could list more, but I believe the point is clear: if the USA is already entering a new cold war, then it would be useful for them to understand in time what they need to win that war. In cold wars, the side that has the soft powers of attraction and persuasion wins in the end. To win, we must convince the rest of the world that they should buy not only our products, but also the social, political and economic system we are selling.
The US may produce the best bombers and missile systems in the world, but that is of no use now. Instead, we must offer concrete assistance to developing countries and markets, starting with the waiver of patent rights for covid vaccines, so that each country can produce its own vaccines and related treatments.
Equally important, we must once again make the Western economic, social and political system a model for the whole world to aspire to. In the US, this would initially mean reducing the number of mass attacks with firearms, improving environmental regulations, combating inequality and racism, and protecting women's reproductive rights. Until we show the world that we deserve a leadership position, we cannot expect it to follow us.
(Project Syndicate; Peščanik.net; translation: Đ. Tomić)
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