In the 1970s, United States President Richard Nixon instructed Secretary of State Henry Kissinger to convince the leaders of enemy communist countries that he could be unpredictable and unstable, especially when under stress. Kissinger, a skilled lover of "realpolitik" methods, saw potential in this approach and immediately began to apply it. This is how the "madman theory" appeared in diplomacy.
Niskon was not a lunatic at all, although his heavy drinking in the midst of the Watergate scandal prompted Kissinger and Defense Secretary James Schlesinger to impose controls on his access to the nuclear codes. By pretending to be a man of volatile character, Nixon aimed to make his foreign adversaries fearful: by provoking his anger or stressing him they might receive in return an irrational - or else nuclear - response, stimulating them to rationalize themselves. behave.
Today, the USA is led by Donald Trump, and the "crazy doctrine" has returned to politics with a vengeance. This time, however, it is quite obvious that it is only an approach and that in reality Trump - in an act of anger or disappointment - will not decide to attack his opponents, not even with nuclear weapons.
In discussions about Trump's sanity, the number one piece of evidence would be his recent speech at the UN General Assembly. That speech was reminiscent of the most fiery rants of Aerys Targaryen, the "Mad King" from the TV series "Game of Thrones". Interpreting the infamous phrase "burn them all" in his own way, Trump threatened that the US would "totally destroy" North Korea if it continued working on its nuclear program. In that speech, Trump harshly criticized the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. It could be seen that as Trump spoke, his chief of staff, retired US Marine General John Kelly (appointed in July to bring order and some stability to the clinical conditions of the Trump White House) put his hands to his head, as if shocked or despairing.
Many Americans have probably already become immune to Trump's eccentric tirades after months of Twitter attacks on the media, opponents, fellow Republicans and even members of his own cabinet. Trump is famous for his sensitivity: if they provoke him or insult him, they should count on a response.
But unlike many of Trump's outbursts in the past, his speech at the UN was read from a teleprompter, which means it was pre-approved. Those who are capable of keeping the American security strategy within reasonable limits as "pets" of the Trump administration - Kelly, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, National Security Advisor Herbert McMaster - should think again.
Perhaps most unreasonable is Trump's publicly expressed hope that the "boy king" of North Korea will be intimidated by his threat. When in 1983 President Ronald Reagan called the USSR an "evil empire", he was advised not to do so again - in order to improve mutual relations. Reagan understood the importance of such an improvement in reducing the nuclear threat, so he listened to his aides. But the same cannot be said for Trump, although he too, of course, was warned about how dangerous it is to throw insults (of the "rocket man" type) at the brutal and inexperienced Kim.
When he chose the term "lunatic", Nixon in a way relied on the example of Nikita Khrushchev, my grandfather and Nixon's enemy, while he was vice president of the USA. During the so-called "kitchen debate" in 1959 - one of the strangest moments of the Cold War - Nixon argued with Khrushchev in Moscow, proving to him the supremacy of capitalism over socialism.
A year later, at the session of the UN General Assembly in New York, Khrushchev gave an unforgettable speech. Cuba's new revolutionary leader, Fidel Castro, has, as is his custom, profusely issued extravagant threats. Not wanting to be left behind, "Hurricane Nikita" used every opportunity to alarm the diplomats: he whistled, pounded his fists - and even allegedly his shoe - on the table.
There was more than enough evidence that the Western powers had tried to deceive the USSR. The U2 spy plane, whose existence was denied by President Dwight Eisenhower, was shot down over Soviet territory. The USA demanded that the USSR respect the "Monroe Doctrine" which directed Latin America towards the US sphere of interest, but did not want to recognize Soviet hegemony in Eastern Europe. In addition, along the way, America rejected the Soviet disarmament plan - the first official attempt at a transition to peaceful coexistence.
Khrushchev believed that the West would not take him seriously. That's exactly why he behaved like that in the UN. As he later explained, he acted like the original Bolsheviks: if you disagree with your opponent, you must state your arguments loud and clear so that the opponent's arguments disappear in the noise.
In 1962, Khrushchev went a step further in his method by deciding to test the young President John F. Kennedy with a "crazy" plan to plant nuclear missiles in Cuba. That decision provoked the Cuban Missile Crisis - the most dangerous moment in the Cold War. But Kennedy was not afraid and did not respond with empty threats. Instead, he wisely ignored Khrushchev's threats and responded to the letter by showing that the Soviet premier was a reasonable leader negotiating parity in international affairs. The cold approach allowed Kennedy and Khrushchev to reduce tensions and save the world from nuclear conflict.
The world must now hope that Trump is capable of starting to act as coolly in assessing Kim as Kennedy did in negotiating with Khrushchev. Kim reacted to Trump's UN speech by calling him "mentally ill" and "senile". The truth is one of two things: either Trump's crazy show worked or Kim is right about how neither he nor we all like each other.
The author is a professor of international affairs at the New School; she is a senior associate at the Institute for World Politics Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2017.
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