Russian energy threats: time is running out for Europe

Not since World War II has the threat to global energy security been as serious as it is today.

Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine and the resulting geo-economic war between the Kremlin and the West has disrupted global gas markets on a scale unprecedented in history.

The Kremlin is using its power over energy markets to its advantage as Europe seeks to wean itself off Russian natural gas and avoid major shortages this winter, causing prices to rise and flows to be diverted around the world.

Everyone is affected, even those who thought they had prepared for every situation.

For example, Pakistan, which has secured several long-term natural gas import contracts to increase its energy security over the past years, is faced with a situation where partners terminate those contracts to send gas to new customers who have offered a higher price. The coffers of developed and developing countries are emptying.

The Kremlin, meanwhile, is using the global energy crisis it created to prop up its economy in the face of severe international sanctions. Moreover, he is using Europe's dependence on Russian natural gas as a weapon to try and crush Western opposition to his ambitions in Ukraine.

Moscow has recently tried to increase its grip on Europe, saying it plans to reduce gas flow through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany to just 20 percent of capacity.

In response, European Union energy ministers quickly announced a deal that would see the bloc's members cut gas use by 15 percent this winter.

It was an attempt by Europe to show that it will not give in to Russian pressure and leave Ukraine to fill its gas reserves.

Such a reduction in demand caused by the conflict, however, means that an already likely recession is now all but guaranteed.

After Gazprom's recent cuts, analysts are already predicting that the EU will not be able to meet its own goal of filling gas tanks to 80 percent capacity by winter.

Now that Europe has made it clear that it is finally, and perhaps belatedly, ready to take steps to reduce its need for Russian gas at any cost, the Kremlin will do whatever it can to inflict maximum pain on Europe in the short term while the dependence remains.

Herculean task

A recent German poll found that currently 58 percent of the population supports sanctions against Russia despite the potential negative impact on Germany.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is working to lower that number - to the point where it becomes untenable for German leaders to lobby for policies to support Ukraine and help the West win its confrontation with Russia. The weakening of public support for the sanctions regime amid economic difficulties is an equally significant risk for other European governments.

European leaders now face the herculean task of simultaneously helping their industries survive on dwindling energy supplies, supporting the war effort in Ukraine and maintaining support for the sanctions regime amid a cost-of-living crisis largely of Russian origin with no end in sight.

Energy is perhaps the most important front in the current geo-economic battle between Russia and the West, and therefore Europe needs to strengthen its position in this field first.

Having dealt with demand in this equation, it now needs to deal with supply in order to be able to protect its economy as much as possible, and separate public support for Kiev and the sanctions regime against Russia.

There are several obvious steps that European governments can take - but have hesitated for fear of a backlash from the domestic public - to quickly address the supply issue.

The Netherlands, for example, can inject billions of cubic meters of additional natural gas across Europe if it increases production at the Groningen gas field.

Amazingly, however, he still plans to suspend the entire operation next year due to the risk of minor earthquakes in the surrounding areas and pressure from environmental activists.

And Germany can increase its future capacity by extending the life of its nuclear power plants, which are due to be shut down by the end of the year. The ruling coalition has said it is now considering this option, but the Greens - including Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock - remain opposed to the move.

The position of this party on this issue, as far as it is understandable - the German Green party was largely formed from the anti-nuclear movement of the Cold War period.

Yet by blocking a relatively straightforward and low-risk solution to a major problem facing the nation, the party risks failing the test of being a responsible wartime partner, less than a year after its best-ever election result.

In addition to increasing their production capacity in every possible way, European nations should of course also work on forming new partnerships with producers outside the region.

The global gas crisis and its impact are by no means limited to Europe. Therefore, it is necessary that Europe works to gather the international community in order to coordinate the global offer.

Time is running out for Europe

The last time the world faced such a major energy crisis, the Allies had significant control over the world's oil supplies.

British Petroleum and its predecessors, as well as the predecessors of modern American energy giants, controlled most of the Middle East's oil at the start of World War II.

Great Britain established a War Department of Petroleum and a special committee that brought together all Allied energy firms, including American ones, even before Pearl Harbor brought the US into direct conflict, to coordinate supplies for the war.

Today, ownership of global energy supplies is far more diverse. And while the US has vowed to use its role as a liquefied natural gas (LPG) exporter to support Europe, a fire this June at a leading liquefaction plant in Freeport, Texas saw export capacity drop by 17 percent.

Therefore, to address the global gas shortage, key public and private players from around the world will need to come together to develop a strategy for this winter.

Opportunities are missed. No significant agreements on gas production were reached at the recent G7 summit in June. The G20 summit in November this year is unlikely to bring any significant progress since Russia is still a member.

European leaders will have to find other forums to realize these plans. The upcoming Gastech conference in Milan at the beginning of September could be a forum, as it will bring together many directors from this industry and ministers of energy from all over the world.

The UN General Assembly summit begins soon in New York and could be another opportunity for energy diplomacy if preparations begin now.

But time is running out for Europe and the world to insulate themselves from Putin's use of gas supplies as a weapon. The best time to start has passed, but the next best time is now.

(balkans.aljazeera.net)