Russia's attack on Ukraine at the end of February this year marked the beginning of serious global instability. In addition to the energy crisis and the increase in the price of fuel and electricity, the war seriously threatened the food supply on a global level, considering that both Russia and Ukraine are among the five largest exporters of wheat in the world.
Not long after the start of the conflict, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked local farmers to increase production and export of wheat from India in order to "fill" the hole that was created and contribute to solving the global hunger problem.
However, India's plans got in the way - climate change. The long-term drought followed by the extreme heat wave that affected the northwest of the country in March led to the drying of crops and large losses in production. The continuation of unfavorable weather conditions, along with a large increase in prices on the international market, led to the decision of the Indian government to make a drastic move: on May 13 of this year, it banned the export of wheat from the country in order to protect domestic consumers from high food prices.
Unfortunately, this summer is full of examples that illustrate how climate change contributes to intensifying existing crises and global uncertainty.
Crops are crying out for rain
A recent announcement by the European Drought Observatory showed that as much as 60% of the territory of Europe is facing drought, and among the most affected regions is Vojvodina, where extremely dry conditions have been prevailing for months.
The lack of rainfall followed by extremely high temperatures and heat waves is causing serious problems for farmers who expect heavy losses when it's time to harvest.
The bad situation in Europe, together with the war in Ukraine, has significantly contributed to the increase in food prices on the international market, but these are not the only factors affecting the current crisis. In many countries, in the last two years, producers have recorded losses caused by drought and extreme weather conditions, and an additional problem was caused by disruptions in the supply chain due to the pandemic, as well as numerous local conflicts.
In its latest report, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that extremely hot and dry summers like this one will become more frequent in the future due to human-induced warming of the atmosphere.
The French energy company EDF announced a few days ago that it will have to reduce electricity production because the water in the rivers has become so warm that it can no longer sufficiently cool the reactors. This has only worsened an already difficult situation as French nuclear power plants have been operating at reduced capacity for months due to the numerous technical problems that befell EDF.
At the same time, one of the largest exporters of electricity in Europe - Norway, announced that there is a possibility that they will limit the export of electricity in the coming period due to the low level of hydro reserves, which, among other things, caused a slightly drier than average spring.
In Germany, the drought even led to an increase in energy prices. Namely, the low water level on the Rhine forced barge owners to reduce the weight of the loads they take on so that the ships could sail on the river, which significantly increased the cost of their transportation.
Experts warn that if the water level continues to drop, there could be a complete stoppage of coal transportation, the use of which in Germany has been increasing after a long series of years due to increasing problems in gas supply.
The Danube also has a problem with low water levels. In our country, works are currently being carried out to ensure the navigability of the river and the smooth transportation of ships loaded with energy and other goods.
In addition to problems with transportation, the reduced flow on the rivers also affects the lower production of electricity from large hydropower plants, which puts additional pressure on energy systems and increases prices.
An unstable future on a warmer planet
When talking about climate change, the public's attention is mainly occupied by weather extremes, which will become more and more common on a warming planet, such as heat waves, devastating floods, droughts and powerful hurricanes.
However, in addition to these clearly visible consequences, the future towards which we are moving also carries somewhat less obvious problems.
Climate change often acts as a risk multiplier that can make existing problems much more severe and push sensitive systems beyond the dangerous limit. The examples of this summer well illustrate how a heated climate means greater instability and reduces the resistance of states and societies to potential crises and shocks.
This characteristic of the climate crisis is increasingly noticed by the United Nations, so that global warming is now also discussed at Security Council meetings.
The results of extensive scientific research published in the journal of the American National Academy of Sciences indicate that there is evidence that the record severe drought that hit Syria in the period from 2007 to 2010 contributed to the outbreak of civil war in this country by leading to large migrations of poor pastoralists from villages to cities. which created fertile conditions for the outbreak of unrest.
If the rise in food prices is not brought under control next year, we can expect large migrations and the birth of new instabilities around the world.
The climate crisis no longer seems like a potential danger lurking in the distant future. In fact, we can already see short segments of problems that, if global warming is not curbed, could practically become everyday.
The world is currently at a crossroads and the choices we make now will largely determine whether we will cross a line beyond which civilizations will no longer be able to adequately deal with numerous international risks. That's why it's important to choose carefully.
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