During this time of war, when two (for the international economy) large states, Russia and Ukraine, are in an open armed war, and almost all the others are in the "cold war", strange and mutually contradictory trends can be observed in the world economy.
It is understandable, for example, that in a situation poisoned by war and various economic sanctions and with an unprecedentedly long-lasting drought - the price of electricity is rising, so in Europe the price of electricity at the beginning of this week jumped over 600 euros per megawatt-hour, just as it is understandable that the price of gas in Europe has jumped another 20 percent in recent days due to some "Russian repairs" of main gas pipelines, and it now costs more than 300 euros per megawatt-hour, but it is not very logical that at the same time the price of a barrel of oil is not rising, but has been oscillating for a long time between 90 and 95 dollars although some major world oil suppliers (Russia, Iran and Venezuela, which theoretically hold more than 25 percent of the daily global supply) are under new or old sanctions of large permanent buyers.
Even the prospects for a new European continental gas crisis in Europe do not seem as frightening as they did last spring, when Putin attacked Zelensky with the army. Namely, although Russian propaganda constantly points out that their dominant exporter to Europe, Gazprom, has everything under control, the latest data show that the readiness of European countries for the upcoming heating season is different. According to these data, Portugal with 100 percent storage capacity and Poland with 98 percent have the least worries waiting for the full season of gas consumption, while Bulgaria (44 percent) and Croatia (44 percent) have the most worries. All the others are "somewhere in between" (except maybe Hungary, which still relies on its contracts with the Russians) and are trying to cover the expected winter problems with "non-standard measures". Germany already starts saving energy in August. Austria has even legally taken over the management of one gas storage facility on its territory owned by Gazprom, because the famous Baumgarten currently has only 65 percent capacity, as the flow of Russian gas has dropped to 30 percent of the usual flow.
The strangest trends are in the prices of metals and food, and we are talking about prices that went sky high in former wars and during former droughts. Namely, although many countries (mainly Germany) raised their military budgets and increased orders from the military industry right after the start of the war on the Dnieper in February this year, the prices of metals began to fall, especially the prices of steel and copper. Many European and global steel mills are reducing production and shutting down furnaces (including "our" Smederevo), while the price of copper has plunged 35 percent since the new year and is the lowest in the last 20 months. That is too much, even with announcements that the world is slipping into recession due to anti-inflationary measures (constant growth of reference interest rates). Is this also a question of China, as an important world regulator of the conjuncture, which constantly comes up with new hotspots of covid and which, it seems, ceases to be a favorite of Western investors?
Food prices are currently stagnant. According to the latest news, grain in Chicago costs about 35 dinars per kilogram (it is more expensive here), and the few ships with Ukrainian grain, the ones that the Russians let leave Odessa, do not easily find buyers even in Africa. How the world price of corn, which is destroyed by the drought, will move, we have yet to see. There is a lot of hunger around the world, but the world's creditors seem to be restrained in monitoring food deliveries for countries that, without loans, cannot provide even a crust of bread to their population. Anti-inflationary monetary restrictions (and those that are yet to be expected) also work there.
Poor countries, such as Serbia, in these economically "strange circumstances" should not dream of wars as a way to correct "eternal injustices". Because they neither have enough food nor enough food, and without food and food, no one can wage war.
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