The world is reeling from an incredible mix of crises that includes the Russian war of aggression in Europe, the current COVID-19 pandemic, market and supply chain disruptions, inflation, food insecurity and the increasingly morbid symptoms of climate change. Although the world order created after World War II was far from perfect, at least it ensured stability and numerous opportunities for international cooperation. But now everything seems to be falling apart.
Russia, a major nuclear power, attacked neighboring Ukraine for no apparent reason, indiscriminately killing those it still calls "brothers" and "sisters." For six months now, the Kremlin has been waging a bloody campaign of conquest that looks more like the 1940s than the 2020s.
The triad of dangerous crises
And the east of Europe is not alone. The specter of war - and a clash between the two superpowers of the 21st century - haunts the Taiwan Strait. China is stepping up its military threats against Taiwan, thus increasing the danger of a direct armed conflict with the United States of America.
Nor can we forget Iran, which has been working diligently on its nuclear program since former US President Donald Trump withdrew the US from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018. A nuclear-armed Iran would pose a constant threat of war in a region already supercharged with geopolitical tensions and violence.
Eastern Europe, the Taiwan Strait and the Middle East together create a triad of extraordinary and dangerous crises, which disrupt the post-Cold War world order and its basic principles of non-violence, international cooperation and economic globalization. The primary beneficiaries of such an order - East Asia and Western developed economies such as Germany - are already feeling the consequences of this thoroughgoing destruction. Delivery and trade disruptions, and increasing inflation are evidence of the new economic reality.
'Just follow our example'
When the collapse of the Soviet Union ended the Cold War and its confrontation of rival geopolitical blocs, the West was able to capitalize on its victory because it appeared to have an attractive alternative model to offer. His message to post-communist and other emerging and developing economies was: “Just follow our lead. Market economy and democracy bring progress, development and stability."
But beyond the European Union, North America and East Asia, this formula has never worked as promised. The biggest economic successes have been in places like China and Singapore, which have adopted some market reforms, without democracy. And when the financial crisis broke out in the United States in 2008 and quickly spread to the rest of the world, many began to doubt the superiority of the Western model.
Now the question is whether the new great power rivalries will evolve into a wider systematic confrontation between democracy (USA and Europe) and authoritarianism (China and Russia). Are we facing a second cold war? Much evidence shows just that. However, the situation today is far more complex and complicated than in the late 1940s, when the first Cold War began. To the new-old danger of violent conflicts (in Europe, East Asia or the Middle East) must be added the increasing consequences of climate change.
There will be no going back
As proven by this year's unprecedented heat waves in both China and Europe, the climate crisis will intensify new geopolitical and economic crises. Humanity can no longer afford to ignore or delay investing in climate adaptation and action that requires a complete remodeling of the world's industrialized societies.
The first Cold War was ultimately decided by the nuclear arms race and the superiority of the Western economic system. The new one will be decided by the ability to build a more just global order and solve the climate crisis. If they are to win, Western democracies will have to offer something that will truly benefit everyone. Although military armaments will remain important as a means of deterring potential adversaries, key decisions will be made in other domains.
It is important to keep in mind, when talking about the climate crisis, that it is not typical in the historical development of human societies. While most crises occur within the existing system and eventually return to normality, we are now facing a crisis of the system itself. Whether we like it or not, the new reality is presenting itself and showing that there will be no going back to the old. Human destruction of the environment and climate change preclude the continuity of any of the existing models.
A new hot age is upon us
Russian aggression is indeed a threat, but a known one, with which we know how to deal. Rising temperatures, dry riverbeds, devastated environment, dried crops, acute energy shortages and industrial production disruptions are something else. We have known for a long time how these problems are coming, but we have done nothing, because an effective response requires parting with the past and systemic changes in our policies, economies and societies.
Most countries do not want to work on such a project. But we have to ask ourselves: when the consequences of the climate crisis become so painfully obvious, will we still have time for changes? Or has the climate already passed the point of no return and ushered in a new hot age, which makes life worse for almost all of us?
(Project Syndicate/Al Jazeera)
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