No Russian gas by grace or force

It was known that the winter in Europe due to the energy crisis would be difficult, but after the explosions on the Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic - built to supply Russian gas to Germany and neighboring countries - it is certain that it will be even more difficult. Those who secretly hoped that in the event of an end to the war in Ukraine and the opening of negotiations between the interested parties, the flow of Russian gas to Europe might be restored, were left disappointed. The war is on the path of escalation, with one less gas pipeline, and the main one at that.

The sabotage appears to have condemned Nord Stream to permanent closure. Now that the gas has run out of the pipe, salt water is seeping into it, which, according to the German press, will cause "irreparable damage" to the pipeline. The era of German and Russian political orientation towards cooperation with energy and economic connection, which lasted for half a century, has ended.

The answer to the question of who carried out the sabotage will probably remain unclear and overshadowed by political infighting for a long time. As the conflict between the West and Russia takes on Cold War characteristics, the answer depends largely on which side of the new Iron Curtain one lives on. Moscow accuses "Anglo-Saxon countries" of sabotage. EU members, along with the United States, tend to blame Russia. It is different in the rest of the world, so the Chinese and Indian media are primarily looking for the culprit in the USA. The commentator of the American (oppositional) television Fox and the former president Donald Trump at the same time attributed the responsibility for the sabotage to the administration in Washington, directly or indirectly.

Be that as it may, the gas pipeline, which was a thorn in the side of the USA for a long time, because it made the most important American ally in Europe dependent on Russian energy, is going down in history. In addition to the fact that sabotage will push EU members to increase infrastructure security, their governments will now have to activate the most severe scenarios of the energy crisis, those that include a complete, and not just a partial, cut-off of Russian gas flows. This is taking place in the conditions of a sudden deterioration in the economy, record inflation, rising interest rates and turmoil on the financial markets, while the US stock market has been falling for three quarters in a row, which last happened at the beginning of the 2008 crisis. Numerous analysts announce that the new crisis will hit Europe the hardest, because energy prices, and thus inflation, will be among the highest there.

After the sabotage on the Nord Stream, the German government last week approved an additional, record package of aid to households and companies, as much as 200 billion euros. That amount will be offset by borrowing. Since it had already secured a package of 100 billion euros by the beginning of September, it is obvious that Berlin is hastily preparing for the most severe consequences of the energy crisis.

Germany and the European Union have already found new sellers of gas and oil in exchange for the Russian ones, which they give up by grace or force. Liquefied gas is imported in large quantities from the USA, Norway, Algeria and other countries. However, all the shortage of gas from Russia - which until recently came from about 20 percent of that energy source on the world market - will not be able to be compensated in the short term. Gas will be in short supply for years, and prices will remain very high - to the detriment of the economy and citizens of Europe, which is threatened by crisis in the short term, and economic stagnation in the long term.

Europe is also threatened by a financial crisis, because if the other EU members have to borrow like Germany to cover the difference between the galloping market prices of energy and fixed prices for households and others, state debts will rise dramatically. The energy crisis, namely, will not last only this winter, but several years in a row, judging by the estimates of German officials. For state budgets, it can be a bottomless well.

These days, EU members are painstakingly looking for ways to limit the growth of energy prices on the market, and thereby mitigate inflation. They don't seem to have much of a chance there. Gas from Russia will slow down, but there will not be enough of it either from the USA or from the rest of the world. Europe will be left to the energy shortage and the uncertain development of events, which became even more uncertain with the sabotage in the Nord Stream. Bad forecasts for winter, unfortunately, are being replaced by even worse ones.

(novilist.hr)