Ukraine's candidacy forces the EU to be far-sighted

By February 24, 2022, it was a no-brainer to conclude that it was best for Ukraine to declare itself neutral, given the general geopolitical climate. Or at least to position itself as non-aligned, non-bloc, between the spheres of influence of the EU and Russia. Putin nullified both possibilities with his invasion of Ukraine. And with that, he no longer left Ukraine with a choice. And neither is the European Union.

With the outbreak of war, Ukraine, the largest country on the European continent, became a member of the European destiny community. Ukraine and the EU are now dependent on each other. The Union reacted to the new situation with great speed and amazing unity: the member states are in the process of freeing themselves from energy dependence on Russia. Brussels is putting together one package of sanctions after another, and eight million Ukrainians have been admitted to EU countries.

After a short period of deliberation, the EU declared Ukraine a candidate for membership in June. It is a complete novelty: no country at war has ever received this status. Moreover: Ukraine was declared a candidate precisely because it is at war. Until now, the rule was that difficult countries, such as those in the Western Balkans, should be held at the door of the Union as long as possible.

With the candidacy for Ukraine, the Union also tackled the problem of identity. A well-known bureaucratic regulator is now suddenly emerging as a bold geopolitical player. This dilemma between different, sometimes contradictory roles will continue to give headaches to the alliance of European states for some time to come.

Brussels must manage expectations

The European Union has caused great expectations in Kyiv. President Zelenski hopes that his country will be able to open accession negotiations this year. His head of government, Denis Schmihal, even believes that they can be ended in just two years. The Union would then have 2025 members again in 28.

For the sake of comparison: the EU has been negotiating with Montenegro for 11 years. The country on the Adriatic has 600.000 inhabitants. Ukraine has 44 million. As sensible as Kyiv's rapid accession may seem from a geopolitical perspective, it will be impossible if the EU continues to negotiate under its current rules.

The Union sees the so-called "Copenhagen Criteria", agreed upon in 1993, as the core of its identity. A country that wants to become a member of the EU must first be a stable democracy, secondly it must have a functional legal state and thirdly it must have a competitive market economy.

Of these three criteria, Ukraine fulfills the first one the most. For many years - as part of its neighborhood policy - Brussels has struggled with the rule of law problems there: without any significant changes. And how Ukraine, with its huge agricultural sector, can integrate into the EU's agricultural policy: that remains a huge mystery for now.

The Western Balkans as a frightening example

But hopes have now been raised. The Balkans show how the accession process can easily get lost in bureaucratic chaos. The reluctance of the candidates to make reforms along with the fatigue of enlargement by the member states have led to so much frustration on both sides that hardly anyone believes anymore that the Balkans will ever enter the EU.

If the EU is serious about Ukraine, it must show geopolitical foresight without betraying its accession criteria. This is only possible if the integration process takes place in stages. The integration of Ukraine now makes mandatory what has long been necessary for countries in the Balkans: differentiated membership, i.e. Europe of different speeds.

(Neue Zürcher Zeitung - NZZ)

Translation: Mirko Vuletić