Did Russian President Vladimir Putin know what he was doing when he ordered the invasion of Ukraine on February 24 last year? That decision was a turning point for Europe. For the first time in eight decades, a major land war broke out on the continent, shattering Europe's cherished illusions of peace with a force equal to that of the Russian bombs that have been exploding in Ukrainian towns and villages ever since.
It is obvious that Putin cannot conceive of Russia in any other way than as an armed, dangerous, authoritarian world power. But achieving that status requires Russian hegemony in Eastern Europe—reviving the imperial legacy of Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union—for which Putin needs Ukraine. However, he greatly underestimated the Ukrainian willingness to fight and die for their freedom and independence. That, together with the support of NATO and the EU, prevented him from fulfilling his intention.
Three days after the start of the invasion, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz interestingly described the moment in a speech before the German Parliament. "We are living in a turning point," he said. "And that means the world after it will not be the same as it was." In fact, the war in Ukraine is far more than people - including Scholz - realized 13 months ago.
The role of the Global South
It is obvious that most of the struggles are for the survival of the Ukrainian people as well as for the future of their homeland. But it is also about the future of the international order. Will violence overcome law or can we return to a lasting peace based on law and agreements? And what are the wider geopolitical implications? The Russian invasion represents the first major overhaul of the global order in the 21st century, and now China and Russia have entered into a deeper (admittedly informal) alliance to challenge the dominance of the US and the West.
That struggle - as a renewal of Cold War power politics - is part of two major global transformations: digitization that penetrates all spheres of modern life, and the final crisis of industrial society powered by fossil fuels.
Furthermore, the Russian war revealed an increasingly complex international picture. Major developing economies - such as Brazil, India and South Africa - refused to make their position clear. It is similar with most of the Gulf states. All of them behave strictly in accordance with their national interests. When they assess the new conflict between the great powers, they see not only economic advantages (oil at a discount and gas shipments from Russia under sanctions) but also chances to improve their own geopolitical and diplomatic position.
There is no doubt that the so-called Global South will play a major role in the growing struggle for dominance in the 21st century; this is already obvious after 13 months of war in Ukraine. Unfortunately, many of these countries and regions will recall the relationship they had with the West - especially its leading power, the US, in the recent past. Their involvement in opposing powers such as China must not be assumed. It must be won.
In any case, in addition to those directly affected by the fighting, Europe will be the region with the most changes due to Russian aggression. The war is being waged in her immediate neighborhood and has been launched by an authoritarian regime that embodies values diametrically opposed to her own. With the illusion of peace shattered, Europe's task now is to overcome its internal divisions and its helplessness as soon as possible. It must become a geopolitical power capable of self-defense and deterrence, including nuclear capabilities.
Some of the worst case scenarios
It won't be easy and the road ahead is fraught with danger. Let's consider some of the worst case scenarios. What will Europe do if the new isolationist "America First" is elected to the White House next year, after the arrival of the French rightist and nationalist Marine Le Pen at the Elysee Palace? This outcome has a good chance.
Since Russia will not be able to defeat Ukraine on the front, the war will eventually have to be ended through awkward negotiations. Be that as it may, Europe will live in a different world, just as Scholz predicts. They will have to adapt their existence to the constant threat from the East, be it Putin or one of his successors.
Although the EU will gain more internal stability, its basic character will change. Security will be a major concern in the near future. The Union will have to start thinking of itself as a geopolitical power and as a defense community that works closely with NATO. Its identity will no longer be defined as an economic community, a common market or a customs union. The bloc has already accepted Ukraine as a candidate for future membership, and that decision was driven almost entirely by geopolitical considerations (as was previously the case with Turkey or the states of the Western Balkans).
A major revision of the world order is underway. If this fight is played out according to traditional power politics, everyone will be worse off. Cooperation must win if we want to have an order suitable for the great economic, security and climate challenges of the 21st century.
(Project Syndicate; Al Jazeera)
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