The American administration still does not want to see representatives of the Democratic Front in the new government of Montenegro that would be formed after the parliamentary elections next month. Officials in Washington unequivocally communicated this to the leader of the Europe Now Movement (PES) Milojko Spajić during his recent visit to the capital of the USA, sources close to the US administration told the "News" about the content of the talks that the candidate for the future Prime Minister of Montenegro had in the US capital. .
Our interlocutors say that Spajić tried to convince the American partners to lift the "embargo" from the Democratic Front when it comes to their participation in the possible future parliamentary majority and executive power, but he did not succeed. The State Department believes that the DF has not changed enough and has not experienced a catharsis to become acceptable to NATO partners.
According to our knowledge, the Montenegrin side tried to get support from the USA for the idea that DF would not have the so-called the ministries of force and foreign affairs, as well as control over the intelligence services, but could be part of the ruling coalition and represented in the government with ministers in other departments.
A good part of the European members of NATO, as well as the EU itself, made it known that for them, conditionally speaking, the Italian recipe would be a good solution. Let us remind you that under pressure from Washington, League leader Matteo Salvini could not get the Ministry of Interior, just as prominent members of the former Northern League could not get the ministries of force and control over the intelligence services. The motive is obvious, Salvini and the League had, and still have, too Russophile and even "Putinophile" views, as well as connections, to be acceptable in a government that pleads to have good and fruitful relations with Washington.
Despite the hopes that Washington, after certain changes in the DF, could give the green light, it seems that there are still great reservations about the tripartite coalition of the New Serbian Democracy, the Democratic People's Party and the Movement for Change. Since NATO is essentially an organization that represents the sum of US bilateral relations with its European partners and Canada, it is clear that no one can ignore Washington's position.
The difference in attitude between some Europeans and Americans is in the perception of Russian influence and its potential danger for Montenegro and the area of the former Yugoslavia. Unlike the State Department, in the key EU member states, they believe that the story about Russian interest, influence, as well as Moscow's geopolitical goals in the Western Balkans, is much more the product of prejudices, hunting in the dark of certain political parties and organizations that would profit from spreading beliefs. that the "Russian bear" almost embraced the area from the Pannonian plain to the Aegean and Adriatic seas.
"Russia's influence on the countries of the Western Balkans is much smaller today than it was ten or 15 years ago, this is especially true for Montenegro and Serbia, but also for Bosnia and Herzegovina," a diplomatic source in one of the EU member states familiar with the Western Balkans file and adds:
"If we put aside the policy of disinformation and the spread of fake news from the Russian media based in Belgrade, there is no other serious sign that Moscow is interested in this space or that it plays an important role, economically, militarily, strategically. The most that Russia can achieve in this region is to undermine efforts to bind the area more strongly to the EU. Unfortunately, this is also done by some EU members, of course for different reasons compared to Russia. In Serbia, Montenegro and BiH, local media spread more disinformation than Spuntjik and RT, that is, local journalists and analysts who, for ideological reasons known to them, support Russia and spread anti-Western sentiment. Moscow is out of the game in all crisis situations in the Western Balkans, from Bosnia and Herzegovina, through Serbia and Montenegro to North Macedonia. Another pair of gloves is the Russophilism of certain politicians and members of civil society or narrow party or personal interests such as Milorad Dodik in BiH and parts of the social milieu in Serbia and Montenegro. And if it weren't for Russia, they would find some other motive to be against the pro-Western course of their countries".
All in all, it would be seen as a "necessary evil" in the EU, if it were necessary for the creation of a stable government in Podgorica after the parliamentary elections, the entry of the DF into the ruling majority and the entrustment of ministries that are not related to the army, police, foreign affairs and intelligence. services. The ideal solution would be for the first time since the independence of Montenegro to have a majority in the parliamentary elections that would not need the support of either the DF or the DPS. For the realization of that scenario, it would be necessary to definitively separate the Bosniak Party and the two parties that represent the interests of the Albanian national minority, Albanian Alternative and Force, from the DPS. The practice in the democratic world is that the parties of national minorities go into a coalition with the parties that win the majority in the elections, without the idea of canceling the will of the majority or majority peoples with their votes.
The European Union and the USA agree on the fact that the problem of organized crime and the functioning of the rule of law is the first problem of Montenegro. The strength of the criminal clans, which is reflected in the amount of money at their disposal, their deep roots in all the pores of the government and society, as well as the fabric of Montenegrin society, which is still based more on collectivity than individualism, represent a very difficult and challenging obstacle.
Unfortunately, there are no good signals coming from Brussels and the most important European capitals for Montenegro and the Western Balkans. No spectacular acceleration of integration is foreseen for Montenegro even after the elections and the formation of a stable government. Serbia, in all likelihood, will not open the third cluster in June or later, that is, until it imposes sanctions on Russia. North Macedonia and Albania are also in a phase of stagnation and a new slowdown in integration, granting candidate status to Bosnia and Herzegovina did not produce the desired change in dynamics in the political processes in the former central Yugoslav republic.
It is very likely that, under strong pressure from certain power centers, the EU will make a decision to start negotiations for Ukraine's membership in the Union, which would have a devastating effect on the countries of the Western Balkans and destroy the last bastions of euro-enthusiasm in the region. This does not mean that Ukraine will be accepted in due time, on the contrary, but it is not a great consolation for the countries of our region. The new negotiation methodology is such that there will be no new enlargements in the next ten or maybe 15 years, unless in the next couple of years there are epoch-making changes in the EU itself and a reform is voted on the abolition of consensus for decision-making, which is a conditio sine qua non. for the new EU enlargement.
Therefore, the Eastern European bloc of the Union will be satisfied by the opening of negotiations with Ukraine, and then everything will be stopped or slowed down to the limit, because it is precisely the biggest sponsors of Ukraine in the EU who are the biggest and insurmountable obstacles for the EU to reform, and they will not give up their veto rights because of Kiev.
The Western Balkan countries only have the Open Balkans as an instrument for better connectivity and economic progress, but also a means of forcing the EU to open its doors to the region. The open Balkans, as a success story in which all countries participate, would put the EU before the fait accompli to revise its relationship with the six. It is not the same if one country knocks on the door or when all six knock together. It seems penalizing for Montenegro at this moment because it went further than others in the negotiation process, however in Podgorica they should keep in mind that there will be no new enlargement of the European Union without reform of the Union, major geopolitical upheavals or a strong positive impulse from the region, and it can only be through successful regional connectivity. So the choice is between never and ever. "Without a serious reform of the EU, including the way of voting and decision-making in the EU, there will be no new enlargement, and even Switzerland, let alone some other country, will be in the waiting room", is a sentence that is heard more and more frequently in European corridors.
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