Being born in 1948, the risk of a nuclear third world war was a very real part of my childhood. That threat - or at least the threat of the destruction of East and West Germany - lasted until the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Since then, the risk of superpowers having atomic weapons launching Armageddon has been significantly reduced, it can even be said that it has almost disappeared. Today, the great danger lies in the fact that an increasing number of small countries, with unstable or dictatorial regimes, are trying to acquire nuclear weapons. By obtaining the status of a nuclear power, such regimes can ensure their own survival, expand their local or regional geopolitical interests, and even have an expansionist agenda.
In these new circumstances, the "rational nuclear deterrence" that was supported by the USA and the USSR during the Cold War disappeared. And today, in the case of the proliferation of nuclear weapons, the threshold for using those weapons will most likely be lower.
The current situation in North Korea shows that the nuclearization of East Asia or the Persian Gulf can pose a direct threat to peace in the entire world. We will analyze the recent verbal confrontation between North Korean dictator Kim and US President Trump, in which Trump promised to respond with "fire and fury" to any further provocations by North Korea. It shows that Trump does not rely on rational deterrence, as one might expect from the leader of the last superpower. Instead, he gives free rein to his emotions.
Of course, Trump did not start the escalating crisis on the Korean Peninsula. It has been brewing for some time, thanks to the willingness of the North Korean regime to pay any price to become a nuclear power, seeing it as a way to ensure its own security. In addition, the regime is developing intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads and reaching the US West Coast or beyond. This is what will be a serious security problem for any US administration.
Overall, there is no good response to the North Korean threat. For example, a preemptive war on the Korean peninsula under the leadership of the US could lead to a direct confrontation with China and the destruction of South Korea, and would have unpredictable consequences for Japan. And since the China-South Korea-Japan triangle has become a new center of power in the global economy of the XNUMXst century, no country would escape the economic consequences. Even if the US continues to rely on the possibility of war, US military leaders know that the use of military force is in fact an unacceptable option, given the extremely high costs and risks.
When North Korea becomes a nuclear power, America's security guarantee will no longer be so strong. North Korea, which has nuclear weapons and the ability to use them, will put South Korea and Japan under additional pressure to develop their own nuclear potential, and they can easily do so. But that is exactly the last thing China wants.
The situation in Asia today has nuclear attributes of the XX and national power dynamics of the XIX century. It can prove to be an extremely flammable cocktail. At the same time, the international system is increasingly unstable, political structures, institutions and alliances all over the world are subject to criticism or doubt.
However, much will depend on what happens in the US under the leadership of President Trump. The investigation into collusion with Russia in the pre-election campaign ahead of the 2016 presidential election and the rejection of changes to the Health Care Act (Obamacare) showed that the US administration is unstable and ineffective. And agenda items such as tax cuts, a wall on the border with Mexico and a review of the North American Free Trade Agreement, not to mention the emotional outbursts of Trump himself, only fuel the American radical right.
That instability in the US is causing global concern. If the USA can no longer be counted on to ensure peace and stability, it is clear that no country is capable of this. We will remain in a leadership vacuum, and nowhere is this more dangerous than in the area of nuclear proliferation.
And this fall, another nuclear threat awaits us. If the US Congress imposes new sanctions on Iran, the nuclear agreement between that country and the P5 + 1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) may fail. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani recently said that in response to new sanctions, Iran could reject the deal "within hours."
In light of the North Korean crisis, the height of irresponsibility would be to initiate an unjustified nuclear crisis - and, possibly, war - in the Middle East. And the return of the US to the regime change strategy in Iran will most likely be doomed because it will only strengthen the positions of the hardliners in that country.
All this will happen in a region that is already affected by crises and wars. And since Russia, China and Europe will abide by the nuclear deal, the US will remain isolated and at odds with even its closest allies.
Today's nuclear threats require the very opposite of "fire and fury." What is needed is balance, rationality and patient diplomacy that does not rely on dangerous and capricious threats to use force. If the last superpower renounces those virtues, the world - and all of us - will face the consequences.
The author was the German Minister of Foreign Affairs and Vice-Chancellor from 1998-2005; he played a key role in the founding of the German Green Party, which he led for almost 20 years
Bonus video:
