Russia is trying to strengthen its influence in the Balkans

Victory and change of power is possible only with one common candidate - this message to the opposition in Montenegro by Sergej Zelezniak, who is a representative of "United Russia", the Kremlin's party in the Foreign Policy Committee of the Duma, is also a message for Russian voters. If President Vladimir Putin wants to move his tired voters to legitimize him with new record support in his most likely last election battle, then, due to economic and social problems, he must show success in foreign policy.

When the Russian president is elected in 2018, the annexation of Crimea and the de facto "sovereignization" of Eastern Ukraine will already be four years in the past. And the war in Syria is not very suitable for electoral victory either, even if the reconstruction and construction of Syria is led by the Russian hand. The Middle East is quite far away for the collective consciousness of Russians, especially since there have been almost no Russian victims there so far.

For the Balkans and on it, on the other hand, a lot of Russian blood has been spilled in recent centuries. Now, as interpreted by critical experts in Russia and the Western Balkans, Moscow is once again waging war on multiple fronts in the region - with "soft power". The strategic goal is to correct the development of events after the wars for the division of the Yugoslav heritage in the 1990s. At that time, the weak Russia played only a secondary role in the creation of a new order in the Balkans. Artjom Ulunjan, an expert on the Balkans, says that Putin wants to erase that humiliation from the face of Russia. And the basic pro-Russian mood of parts of the public as well as the establishment in Serbia, the Bosnian Republika Srpska, Macedonia and Montenegro suits him.

In Montenegro, even after this small country joined NATO in June, the Kremlin does not consider that the game is over at all. The opposition "Democratic Front" wants to organize a referendum on leaving the Alliance when it takes power. Although the Special State Prosecutor's Office is conducting an investigation against the leadership of this party and its patrons from the Russian military intelligence service GRU for the coup attempt in the 2016 parliamentary elections, and the British channel Sky News is showing photos that should strengthen the accusation of conspiracy, the Russian embassy in Montenegro despite this maintains close contact with "Front" and is otherwise very active.

In Montenegro, meanwhile, there is also a Balkan Cossack brigade, tightly and paramilitary organized like their brothers in Russia and with the same super-conservative canon of values. Many members of this brigade are Russian real estate owners in Montenegro. More than 12.000 Russians own real estate and have a permanent residence permit in Montenegro, which has only 623.000 inhabitants. They do not hide their anger at all about the sliding towards the West of the country where they are guests. Behind that lies the fear that membership in NATO will also be a catalyst for joining the EU. Which could then be critical for both residence permits and jobs.

Neighbors also do good business with Moscow. Unlike Montenegro, Bosnia canceled its solidarity with the European Union in 2014 when Moscow countered Western sanctions due to the Ukrainian crisis with an embargo on foodstuffs from the EU. The peasants from Herzegovina therefore continued to fill the shelves of Russian supermarkets with tangerines, wine and vegetables. Moscow returned the favor and recently paid off old Soviet debts. In cash, although it is common for such debts to be repaid with oil or gas, as currency.

Serbia has an agreement with Russia, as well as China, on strategic cooperation, and it has also installed a "National Council", which coordinates the cooperation. A third of the ministers of the Serbian government sit in this body. Its president is the old head of state Tomislav Nikolić. As Alexander Novikov, director for international cooperation in the Moscow Ministry of Defense, told the official Russian news agency TASS, Serbia will even join Russia's Syrian mission.

Although formally it is only about removing mines, this undertaking is still extremely exciting due to its highly symbolic content, warns Belgrade military expert Aleksandar Radić. Moscow imposed it on Serbia, and in case Belgrade refused, Russia threatened to change its policy towards Kosovo.

The West will nevertheless feel provoked, with all the resulting consequences for Serbia's negotiations on joining the EU. Great powers - this applies to both Russia and the USA - demand unconditional loyalty from their allies, even if they are only potential - like Serbia.

(Neues Deutschland) Translation: Mirko Vuletić