Friday, July 28 - Who says that there is no luck without the third... Here is Montenegro, and with the formation of the third Government, she is getting some bribes, even though the USA has lowered the criteria so much that the door is open for DPS as well.
And not secondary to support the minority, but the main one to return to power...
Where did I get that from now? Well, of the five conditions of the USA yesterday, each party fulfills one, but only DPS fulfills them all.
Since when? Since its leader found out last week that the Berlin Wall had fallen and - like the Chetniks who joined the partisans in 1944 - began to fight for a civil state, human rights and non-governmental organizations.
Something similar was announced last night by the US Embassy... It was short, but I still couldn't understand whether the Embassy just changed the translator, or whether the United States changed its attitude towards Montenegro, or something worse than both...
We Googled messages on the eve of the President's consultation on the mandate a long time ago.
And they memorized the beginning that hasn't changed for years: that the US "looks forward to the determination of Montenegrin citizens towards integration into the European Union and support for NATO".
The third reason for joy - the fight against corruption and crime, which has been the first expectation in every press release before the election of every Government for a decade - this time there is no...
If that fight hasn't been lost in translation, that means it's no longer a priority...
What you arrested - you arrested, it's time for DPS to return to power. Or at least into power, because the USA never forgets those who were once out of their hands...
Therefore, it is not strange that yesterday's priorities of the Embassy irresistibly remind me of the aforementioned priorities of the last Balkan autocrat.
First on that list is the civil nature of the state. Which for seventeen years no one in Montenegro disputes.
Respect for human rights takes second place. Which has progressed much more in three years than in the previous thirty.
The third priority, also common to the partners so far, is - improving the conditions for the dynamic work of civil society...
And for this year, I've been amazed at the dynamics with which some grant stars overthrew an already overthrown minority government. So aggressively, as if her ministers have been entering Karađorđeva bb by force since last August, and not by force of the Constitution.
* * *
Saturday, July 29 - However, the biggest flaw of yesterday's message from the US Embassy, which was repeated by the special envoy Gabriel Escobar, is - ignoring the Montenegrin reality.
And the reality is that neither NATO nor Montenegro's membership in that organization has the support of the majority of Montenegrin citizens.
According to a survey conducted in the euphoria of victory at the beginning of May, 47 percent of citizens support Montenegro's membership in NATO.
In regular conditions, that support hardly exceeded forty percent, but there are some much more important figures for (knowing) the Montenegrin reality.
On whom should Montenegro rely - completely or to a large extent - in foreign policy?
The EU is in first place - 44,1 percent, Serbia is second with 33 percent, and the USA is in third place with 20,6 percent.
And who should not be relied on at all?
Well, the USA is in first place with 40,5 percent.
Serbia is in second place with 29,3 percent.
The European Union fared the best, with only 17,2 percent believing that they have no confidence in it.
What does that mean?
Yes, it is not possible to form a government that the USA would look forward to because all the ministers "support NATO and its unique support for Ukraine".
Neither minority nor majority...
* * *
Sunday, July 30 - And how does the European Movement now see the way to a stable government?
- The structure of the new government will be defined proportionally to the election result of its constituents - specified ten days ago the president of PES, Milojko Spajić.
And, judging by his attitude towards two members of the former Democratic Front, he gave up on that principle.
- We should not chase the majority, neither two-thirds nor three-fifths, but find a consensus in finding the best solutions. That's the only way Montenegro will win - said his deputy Jakov Milatović in the election campaign...
Only two months later, Montenegro is already at a loss.
Consensus is no longer possible, PES would now be satisfied with 41 votes of support in the parliament... But there are little chances even for that minimal majority.
Why?
First of all, because of the cowardice of the leaders, i.e. candidate for the position of mandate holder.
To make sure there is no confusion, Milojko Spajić has not (yet) fulfilled all the conditions from the CSBH dictionary - rash, impulsive, headstrong, grumpy, quarrelsome, capricious, capricious, unruly...
But it is enough that his past work is the main obstacle to the formation of a more or less stable government.
First, he removed DPS and Ura from the list of desirable ones, putting the patrons of corruption and crime on the same level as those who are the first fighters in the eradication of this evil.
These days, also unprovoked, he is provoking the New Serbian Democracy and the Democratic People's Party, trying to present them in advance as the culprits for the eventual termination of negotiations.
Despite the fact that he announced back in February that the DF could not join the government and put it in the same basket with the DPS, both parties got over Spajić's insult. Which, by the way, they consider the most difficult ever since they were founded.
He sent the same insult to them this week, after the negotiations which he himself assessed as successful.
And what did NSD and DNP do to him so terribly?
Nothing, only Andrija Mandić expressed a well-founded doubt in the claim of the candidate for the post of mandate that he "managed to convince the President that he has a majority for the composition of the 44th Government"...
In a fit of spite, Spajić then thanked only the Democrats and the Bosniak Party for their support.
* * *
Monday, July 31 - He really should be grateful to the Democrats.
- We talked, agreed and accepted the offer of a potential representative. The negotiations have been successfully completed and there is not a single disputed issue - Aleksa Bečić wisely avoided talking about details that would undermine the continuation of Milojko Spajić's negotiations with other potential partners.
Unlike the leader of PES, whose rash trust in BS will backfire not only on that movement and its leader, but also on the rest of Montenegro, he is deprived of DPS.
Already in autumn or only in spring, it's just a matter of time.
Why? First, because of the amendments that Ervin Ibrahimović submits in the sequels, and that just when there appears to be some hope for the success of the negotiations.
Second, and much more important in the long run, the Bosniak Party is very expensive to support.
Not to dwell on the riots from Monteput through Monte-Vlad to Montecargo, the most famous symbol of that coalition's expensiveness will remain BS official Alija Košut.
- It is fair that, unlike citizens, officials get affordable apartments and loans - he said when he received 40.000 euros from the state.
Despite the fact that his property record already contained three apartments of 99, 84 and 45 square meters, as well as two houses of 244 and 38 square meters...
Of those 40.000 euros, that BS official should return only 9.700 and that in - 20 years.
The Bosniak party then had two mandates.
Now there are three times more.
It has not yet been announced whether the monetary equivalent of the coalition capacity will be tripled.
From what has already happened during the negotiations, it caught my eye that the leader of the Bosniak Party instead of the official term eurointegration benefits - eurointegrations...
Slip? Possibly, but long ago the wise and experienced Freud explained that a slip is "a psychologically motivated tension between language and the subconscious".
* * *
Tuesday, August 1 - The question is why Spajić does not see this - because he is not familiar with the recent Montenegrin political history or because his stubbornness prevents him from seeing further and wider than himself and PES...
The third explanation could have something to do with his political father Zdravko Krivokapić.
In the history of Montenegrin politics, he will be remembered as the first winner who was unable to carry the burden of his own victory.
And the only one who, after the victory, did not come into confrontation with those he defeated, but with the parties that brought him to power...
Whether the same fate awaits the leader of PES will be known in a few weeks or months.
Of course, it was not realistic to expect any representative from the Movement to retain the support of each of the 221.592 voters who elected Jakov Milatović as the President of Montenegro.
But to drive away more than 60.000 sure supporters out of sheer calm - well, only Milojko Spajić can do that...
Bonus video:
