A good part of the members of the European Union, including the most important France and Germany, as well as the European Commission, want Montenegro to be an example for other Western Balkan countries, i.e. to be proof that there has been a change in EU policy towards enlargement by ending the negotiations in 2027. or 2028 and enter the Union in 2030 - diplomatic sources in key European capitals told "Vijesta".
In Brussels, but also in Berlin and Paris, there is a fear that the Western Balkans will not be sufficiently ready to join the EU, despite the fact that the Union will be organized and prepared for the reception of new members. In this context, Montenegro is the only candidate that has all the regular cards to, with the help of the EU and the USA, be the first and an example that the EU is serious when it mentions the year 2030.
"The pressure on Montenegro to form a competent government for the most important state task is the result of the desire of European and American partners to push Podgorica towards EU membership. If a good government is formed and the ruling majority is able to adopt and implement the reforms necessary for EU membership, Brussels' idea is to finish the negotiations in the next four to five years, so that Podgorica can enter the Union in 2030. In this way, Brussels would send a concrete message through Montenegro to other Western Balkan countries that it is possible to successfully complete the European path, provided that it is really desired", says the interlocutor of "Vijesti" in the EU institutions.
How achievable this plan will be will be seen, on the one hand, through the formation of a new government in Podgorica, and on the other through the conclusions of the European Council in December. They will not only mention the year 2030, but also a number of other things that are essentially more important than the date itself, which remains tentative and not imperative. The sloppy conduct of negotiations regarding the formation of the ruling majority and the new government is already costing Montenegro a lot, and the price could be even higher if it is not acted quickly and pragmatically. In other words, there is little time left for Montenegro to meet the conclusions for the December European Council, if this continues, it will not meet, and that will be a colossal missed opportunity.
Where is the problem on the Montenegrin side? Everything revolves around the adoption and implementation of the necessary reforms, which require decisions by a qualified majority of 49 deputies. It is not necessary for the new government to be supported by 49 or more MPs, but it is necessary to pass a set of laws. Mandate Milojko Spajić made a tactical mistake in the negotiations on the composition of the new executive power because he did not take this into account.
In order for the negotiations to be completed by 2028, which would put Montenegro in a position to enter the EU in 2030, it must do two things: the first is to complete the judicial reform, which requires 49 deputies, and the second is to effectively fight against organized crime and corruption. with pronounced final judgments. Investigations, arrests, confiscations are not enough, final judgments are needed to enter the EU.
The entry of the Coalition for the Future of Montenegro (ZBCG) into the new ruling majority is a very complex issue, and the answers depend on who your interlocutor is in the EU and the USA. In general, there are two currents, one, conditionally speaking, dogmatic, and the other pragmatic.
The Germans are fiercely against the entry of ZBCG into the new government. Washington is in Berlin's position, although there are people within the State Department who have somewhat more nuanced views, but we are far from being opposed to the official one. In most of the EU member states, there is a pragmatic approach based on the fact that there is a government that implements reforms and determines the tasks for joining the EU and has a sufficiently large support in the parliament. In the style of the Eastern proverb that it doesn't matter what color the cat is, but whether it catches mice.
Americans and Germans do not forgive ZBCG (when it was called DF), an attempt to change the international course of Montenegro and to stop it on its way to NATO with the help of Moscow. Then, in the meantime, the belief spread that ZBCG could be Belgrade's Trojan horse in the Montenegrin government to sabotage Podgorica's path to EU membership.
With the change in the EU's policy towards enlargement, official Belgrade can no longer pretend that it wants to join the EU, and in essence it is working to prevent this from happening. The biggest Balkan ally of the restrictive policy of Paris and Berlin towards expansion into the Western Balkans was Serbia under the leadership of Aleksandar Vučić. The change in the political wind in Berlin and Paris towards enlargement has brought official Belgrade to a situation where it must clearly decide whether it really wants to enter the European family or to remain a small hole in Euro-Atlantic Europe.
The fight against organized crime and corruption is another important task for the future government. If he excludes ZBCG and turns to DPS, then it is more than certain that the former multi-decade ruling party will seek support in the Assembly for some kind of amnesty and immunity for its prominent members or deserving people who are involved (in)directly in organized crime and cases corruption. The consequence of that compromise would be an ineffective fight against organized crime and corruption, and thus would call into question Montenegro's approach to EU membership.
Therefore, a Government that would not have the support of 49 or more MPs for a set of necessary laws would be at the will of Berlin and Washington, but would not be able to do the work expected of it and would not take the necessary steps towards EU membership in 2030. . years. Berlin and Washington in Brussels are warning about this very scenario due to their insistence on a dogmatic attitude towards the ZBCG. That stubbornness, along with the sloppy formation of the ruling majority and the government, can torpedo Podgorica's chances of joining the EU in 2030.
Robert Fitz's victory in Slovakia reminded many of Miroslav Lajček's inappropriate statements about who is a partner for the EU and who is not. Fico is much more pro-Russian and anti-European politician than Andrija Mandić and Milan Knežević combined, but neither Lajčak, who is a Slovak, nor others think of saying that Fico cannot form the Slovak government or be in it. That's the difference when you're a member of the club and when you're in front of the club door. Paradoxically, ZBCG should be the biggest supporter of Montenegro joining the EU because only then will they be able to enter the government or even form one.
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