Connections of the unconnected

Among the reasons for the latest war in the Middle East, there are also political elections. Both when they are and when they are absent.

Their results brought the most aggressive right wing to power in democratic Israel. And at the same time, their absence, for a full 17 years, was replaced by the autocratic Hamas with a fatal choice - to invade Israel from Gaza and cause a far-reaching war.

Now both sides defend that they had no other choice. Hamas in order to respond with arms to the Israeli occupation and thereby win the solidarity of Islamic countries, and Israel in order to destroy it as a terrorist organization that preaches the destruction of its state...

For this occasion, I cite their case as the most drastic example of the increasingly frequent linking of disconnections. Elections and wars turn out to be extremes that intertwine as if they play two main roles in the same drama where, in one way or another, our lives are decided.

In a world of ever-increasing deviations and detours, we just lacked a series of elections that could make it even more unpredictable - suggests the Bloomberg agency. According to her calculation, next year, citizens will declare their authority in about 40 countries, which make up 41 percent of the planet's population and create 42 percent of the gross global product, which, she adds, is too much of a challenge even for calmer strategic times.

Relations within and between states are so polarized that even pre-election campaigns increase uncertainties that can cause major upheavals both in strategic positioning and in markets and stock exchanges. There was also room for American billionaire Paul Singer's malignancy that now "the world is completely dependent on the skill of leaders to avoid Armageddon".

But how many are there? In the magazine Foreign Affairs, under the title "Why smart leaders make stupid moves", a polemic started about their characters and the way they act under pressure. According to some, the higher the stake, the more rational they will be, while others claim that in delicate circumstances they more often experience an emotional shock and act irrationally.

Both reactions can be sensed in the local leader. She simply freaks out because of Pristina's "anti-Serb actions" and even threatens her, but she rationally succeeds in withdrawing the Serbs from the police and judiciary there, as well as their non-participation in the elections in the north. So all that, and a little more, intersect with his "ignorance" of how there was an armed incursion by a team of his close associates in Banjska, which worsened the position of Belgrade, so that now he agrees to everything except to recognize Kosovo's independence and support its membership in UN. And yet, with early parliamentary elections, he postponed his unpleasant inevitability a little, and that with the cry "Serbia must not stop", although it is still not clear where he is heading.

The world's attention is, of course, much more focused on the 2024 elections for the European Parliament, as well as those in America, Russia, Belgium, Romania, India, Pakistan, South Korea, South Africa, Taiwan, and certainly in Ukraine - if they take place . The connection with war or potential conflicts will be very significant in places.

Volodymyr Zelensky is in favor of postponing the elections because Ukraine is committed to the fight against Russian aggressors. This circumstance will not prevent Vladimir Putin, as is heard, from seeking another term in the middle of a war in which he did not achieve his initial goals.

Polls in the US show that the challenger Donald Trump has a better chance of returning to the White House than Joe Biden, who, among other things, complains that he is fighting a bad war and that he would stop all wars in an instant. New Delhi and Islamabad are not at war, but between the two nuclear powers there is a chronic armed conflict over Kashmir. And Seoul is in a frenzy because of Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal. China, on the other hand, has frequent and massive military exercises around Taiwan, in order to warn it not to vote for formal independence from it...

It is a widely held opinion that armed conflicts are best managed by non-democratic countries. Two American political scientists refute this with the finding that in the period 1816-1987. they won only 46 percent of their wars, while democracies were successful in 76 percent of their military ventures.

The Pew research agency recently came to some interesting conclusions. She found governments changing rapidly in the EU, even though she enjoys peace and high standards. On average, there are changes every other year, and the record holders in that short term are Belgium, Finland and Italy, where mandates lasted less than 365 days.

At least in this respect, Serbia is keeping up with Europe, with one big difference - here the governments function as autocracies. Similar to Russia and China, which the local authorities call "brothers" and "friends", which are compliments that are not heard at meetings with representatives of the EU, although we formally aspire to its membership.

We are also familiar with the connection between war and elections. Here, only after the defeat by NATO, the opposition, which had previously been significantly suppressed, experienced an electoral victory.

And the just-announced early parliamentary elections resulted, for the most part, from a situation of neither war nor peace, which is characterized as both "frozen conflict" and "unfinished business". In that status, Serbia has almost buried itself, although "it must not stop", which is all, also, the binding of disconnection.

(novimagazin.rs)