Wars of the new world order

The crises, conflicts and wars raging today show how much the geopolitical landscape has changed in recent years: the rivalry of great powers is once again taking center stage in international relations. As the wars in Gaza and Ukraine deepen global divisions, an even deeper geopolitical reconfiguration is entirely possible, including the transition to a new world order.

These two wars highlight the risk of a third - over Taiwan. No one (especially not Chinese President Xi Jinping) can help but think that by transferring huge amounts of artillery ammunition, smart bombs, missiles and other weapons to Ukraine and Israel, America is depleting its arsenal. From the perspective of Xi, who has called the incorporation of Taiwan into the People's Republic of China his "historic mission," that would mean - the longer these wars go on, the better.

US President Joe Biden realizes that the stakes are high and is trying to reduce tensions with China. It is worth noting that Biden first sent a number of officials from his cabinet to visit Beijing, and then planned a summit with Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum in San Francisco in mid-November. In addition, Biden and his partners from the G7 emphasized that they seek to "reduce the risks" in relations with China, and not to "sever ties" with this country, which has the second largest economy in the world.

This process, whatever it is called, will change the global financial order, as well as the structure of investment and trade. Trade and investment flows are already changing, so it can be concluded that the world economy will probably split into two blocs. For example, China today trades more with the countries of the Global South than with the West. Despite the high costs of such economic fragmentation, China is trying to mitigate its vulnerability to possible future pressures and is quietly reducing its economic ties with the West.

To a large extent, America has itself to blame for the current situation. By actively promoting China's economic rise for forty years, America has helped create the greatest enemy it has ever faced. Today, China boasts the largest navy and coast guard in the world; openly challenges Western dominance in the global financial system and international organizations. In addition, China is actively engaged in the creation of an alternative world order, at the center of which it is itself.

Although the current system is often referred to in neutral-sounding terms (for example, a "rules-based global order"), there is no doubt that the United States is at its center. And the point is not only that it is mainly the United States that sets the rules on which that order is based. America apparently believes that it is exempt from key rules and regulations, including the ban on interfering in the internal affairs of other countries. International law is strong against the weak, but weak against powerful countries.

The current situation in the conflict-torn world can greatly assist China in creating an alternative world order. It was the war that led to the emergence of a world order led by the United States, including the international organizations that underpin it - the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the UN. Reforming these organizations in any meaningful way in peacetime has proven extremely difficult.

This certainly applies to the UN, which seems to be in irreversible decline, and its role in international affairs is becoming more and more marginal. The hopeless impasse in the UN Security Council has led to more responsibility being placed on the UN General Assembly. For example, it was forced to pass a resolution on the Gaza war calling for a "humanitarian ceasefire" and an end to the Israeli siege. But the General Assembly is fundamentally weak and, unlike the Security Council, its resolutions are not legally binding.

As the organizations in which the USA is the leader weaken, so does the authority of America itself outside its borders. Even Israel and Ukraine, which depend on America for its main source of military, political and economic aid, periodically reject American advice. Israel ignored US advice to scale back military strikes and try to minimize civilian casualties in Gaza, where the humanitarian situation was already grim. In addition, the US authorities blame Ukraine for the excessive expansion of its forces, which led to the halt of the counteroffensive.

In addition to the changes in the world order caused by the Sino-American rivalry, there may also be significant shifts at the regional level. If the Gaza conflict drags on, there could be a geopolitical reorganization in the Greater Middle East. Almost all the great powers in this region (with the exception of Egypt, Iran and Turkey) are creations of the 20th century created by the West, primarily the British and the French. Israel's war is already strengthening the geopolitical role of gas-rich Qatar, a regional bully that has now grown into an international outlaw that funds armed jihadists, including Hamas.

If the conflict spreads beyond Gaza, the geopolitical consequences could be very serious. Whatever happens, Ukraine could be among those with the most to lose. As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky admits, the war in Gaza is already a "distraction" from his country's struggle with Russia, and this is precisely at the moment when Ukraine cannot afford to reduce the volume of Western aid.

However, there are other forces and trends (including the growing militarization of the Russian economy, slowing economic growth in China, increasing economic weight of countries in the Global South) that increase the likelihood of fundamental changes in the international order. Meanwhile, the world is struggling to cope with growing inequality and growing authoritarianism, the rapid development of transformative technologies (such as artificial intelligence), environmental degradation and climate change.

Although it is impossible to predict all the details, a fundamental global geopolitical realignment now seems almost inevitable. The specter of a long-term conflict between the West and its rivals (primarily China, Russia and the Islamic world) looms very clearly.

The author is a professor of strategic studies at the Center for Political Research in New Delhi and a fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2023. (translation: NR)