The year 2023 ended on a bitter, dark note. The upcoming elections in 2024 heighten fears for the fate of democracy and the world order. In addition to the Russian presidential "election" in March, there will also be elections for the European Parliament in June, US presidential and congressional elections in November, and a general election in the UK that will be held before January 2025. There are many reasons to worry about the future of democracy, from the guaranteed re-election of the Russian autocrat to the possibility of a populist wave growing on both sides of the Atlantic.
Yes, populists don't always win elections, and even if they end up being the largest party in parliament (as happened, for example, in Poland and the Netherlands this fall), that doesn't necessarily mean they'll control the government. But there is a scenario that really keeps people awake: the fact that Donald Trump is leading US President Joe Biden in polls in states where Biden must win. However, it is possible that a Trump victory will be less likely than both Trumpists and anti-Trumpists believe.
Such polls - conducted a year before the election - increase fears, and infuse Trumpists with optimism. But if we take a step back, we can find that the picture is much more complex. The current political dynamic in the United States is a "coward's game." It is a classic element in game theory. The template comes from James Dean's test of courage ("Chicken Run") in the film Rebel Without a Cause, in which two gang leaders race in stolen cars towards a cliff to see who can jump out of the car first to escape danger. American democracy and the world are undergoing the same terrifying experience.
Both major American parties will nominate weak presidential candidates who have one thing in common - age. If they are re-elected, Biden will be 82 and Trump 78 on the day of the inauguration. Trump promises to be even more radical than during his first term as president. His goal is "revenge" and he plans to rule as a dictator to purge the American state of anyone who opposes him. But at the same time, he is increasingly unable to formulate a coherent speech and, as before, shows complete ignorance of elementary political facts.
Senility in people in high office has been catastrophic at key moments in history. German President Paul von Hindenburg was 84 (and suffering from advanced dementia) at the time of the 1932 election that brought Hitler to power. And British Prime Minister Ramsay MacDonald suffered from early stages of Alzheimer's disease during the Great Depression.
Yes, it is Biden who is (wrongly and unfairly) most often portrayed as a feeble-minded old man. In reality, he still has a very sharp mind; however, it is being slowed by the burden of the pandemic's fiscal and economic legacy. Inflation has subsided, but it has left many voters dissatisfied, even though the country's economy is strong. Since Biden is the current president, he will be blamed for these problems, regardless of whether he is actually responsible for them. In addition, Biden needs to lower the temperature in America's strained relations with China, although both Democrats and Republicans consider the country a dangerous enemy.
The key to the election will be mutual recognition that the other party's candidate is weak. Biden's early appeal to Democrats was largely due to the fact that he beat Trump in 2020, when many other members of the party might have lost. And now they have to ask whether a younger leader might be more effective in attracting voters, especially young Americans who may not turn out at all.
Here begins the game of who will back down first: two old men race to the edge of a cliff, and each side must keep their weak candidate in the race to convince the other side not to trade their weak candidate. If a smarter candidate with less negative baggage enters the game at the last minute, he or she will have a strong chance of winning; if, however, the other party also has time to replace the candidate, then it is not yet known which of them will win.
In an odd way, Trump's strong poll results could potentially change this dynamic. If the Republican Party decides that Trump will be the winner, it is more likely that he will continue the race and fall off the cliff. Under such circumstances, it makes sense for Republican supporters to break away from the disastrous Trump camp. And that's exactly what we're already seeing: Nikki Haley is gradually turning into a convincing alternative to Trump. The changes in the Republican camp will be a strong signal to the Democrats: they should choose a younger candidate.
This American electoral logic is important because it relates to another game of who will drop out first. Russia is now experiencing economic and military exhaustion, rising inflation, and we are even seeing signs of protest from the families of soldiers sent to fight a suicidal war. President Putin, however, is betting that if he holds out long enough, the other side will back down and cut off aid to Ukraine. If Americans are disappointed and Europeans are even more divided, then the populist electoral tsunami that Putin needs in Europe and the United States could grow. A Trump victory in November would mean that Putin's gamble has paid off; he will win this international game who backs down first.
However, the second game depends on the first. If a second Trump presidency becomes impossible due to the complex interplay of Republican and Democratic electoral calculations, then the prospect of Ukraine being abandoned will disappear. Moreover, a general understanding that reckless best games should be left to Hollywood would usher in a new era of political sanity.
The author is a professor of history and international relations at Princeton University
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024. (NR)
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