NATO began its largest military exercise since the end of the Cold War, Steadfast Defender on the 24th.
90.000 soldiers from each of the 31 members of the Alliance, as well as Sweden, which has been invited to NATO, will participate in various maneuvers - on land, at sea and in the air - lasting four months.
Although the official NATO documents do not directly state that the exercise is for the needs of a potential offensive by Russia on the allied territory, it is quite obvious that the members of the Alliance want to test how to deal with "a close adversary in a simulated emerging conflict scenario".
Privately, NATO sources admit without hesitation "that, of course, we are talking about Russia."
But if you look at the geography and what the alliance will try, the matter becomes more than obvious.
In short, the Steadfast Defender 24 exercise involves two phases.
The first, which began at the end of January, involves a transatlantic force buildup.
It is, in fact, crucial because then it would be determined whether the United States could deploy numerous soldiers and equipment to continental Europe in order to establish a defense.
Do not underestimate the symbolism itself, since the United States is entering the pre-election presidential campaign, which will culminate in November.
In addition, of course, there is a good chance that American voters will return to the White House a president who has questioned the purpose of NATO, especially its key fifth article, which says that an attack on one member is an attack on all.
Without American commitment, the question is whether the military alliance is dead.
And that's a question that won't go away just yet.
So while images of US troops - training with other member militaries for various amphibious assaults in the Atlantic and off the coasts of the UK, Norway and Spain over the next two months - may not entirely assuage European fears of less commitment from the United States in the near future, it will be an impressive sight with more than 50 naval ships such as aircraft carriers, frigates and destroyers.
The second phase of the exercise is just as important and is likely to be the one that will really show whether NATO can defend its vulnerable eastern flank.
The purpose, according to the Alliance, is to see if the alliance can "conduct and sustain complex multi-domain operations over several months, over thousands of kilometers, from the Far North to Central and Eastern Europe, and in any conditions."
I remind you, the war that can be expected if Russia attacks.
Starting in mid-February until the end of May, you will have numerous elements of exercises mainly on land and in the sky that include up to 80 aerial scenes such as F-35 fighter jets, helicopters and drones, and more than a thousand combat vehicles, including 166 tanks.
The center of the exercises should be in Poland and the Baltic states, as well as Germany, which will act as a reinforcement and coordination center.
Expect elements of exercises in the entire Nordic region, including Sweden, as well as the Czech Republic, Hungary, North Macedonia, Romania, and in non-NATO and constitutionally neutral Moldova.
For obvious reasons, the exercises will not take place in Ukraine, nor will Ukrainian troops participate in the training.
This is also NATO's first real opportunity to test aspects of its new defense plans, which were agreed at the alliance's summit in Vilnius last July, in a document of around 4.000 pages, in which each ally knows exactly which part of the country needs to be defended in the event of an attack on Alliance.
An additional test is to check how well the Joint Task Force (JTF), which was formed in response to the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, really functions.
That group consists of about 6.000 soldiers, who should be deployed within a few days to any area of the Alliance, which is one of the key components of any possible attack.
Although the exercise has been planned for years, it comes at an important moment.
Today, two years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it should act as a guarantee that the Alliance is ready in case war approaches or crosses NATO's borders.
The last exercise, which was larger in scope than this one, was held in 1988 with 125.000 soldiers. Only "Trident Juncture" in 2018 came somewhat close with the participation of 50.000 people.
So both the scale and the numbers are impressive and symbolic.
However, the question is whether the exercise will actually allay fears in Europe.
Arms shipments to Ukraine have fallen alarmingly in recent months, with NATO military committee chief Rob Bauer saying last fall that the Western arms industry needed to step up because "the bottom of the barrel is already in sight."
Recently, there have been many official warnings that European allies must step up and prepare in case the ongoing war is not only about Ukraine.
Warnings also come from countries that are not close to the front.
The head of the Belgian army, Michel Hofmann, recently noted that it is not excluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin opens a second front in Moldova or the Baltic states.
His Swedish colleague Micael Byden, on the other hand, recently warned that everyone in his country "must mentally prepare for war", which caused panic in this Scandinavian country, so some people rushed to stores to buy extra fuel and survival equipment.
What effect Steadfast Defender will ultimately have remains to be seen.
This spring we will see scenes that, perhaps, will equally frighten and reassure Europeans.
Bonus video:
