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The Greatness and Fall of America

If Trump wins the presidential election in November, then this year could prove to be a turning point for American power. The feeling of weakness could finally be justified

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Photo: Reuters
Photo: Reuters
Disclaimer: The translations are mostly done through AI translator and might not be 100% accurate.

Most Americans believe the US is in decline, and Donald Trump claims he can "make America great again." However, Trump's original idea is simply wrong, and the "cures" he proposes represent the greatest threat to the US.

Americans have a long history of worrying about possible weakening of the country. Very soon after the founding of the Massachusetts Bay Colony in the 17th century, some Puritans began to lament the loss of their former virtues. In the 18th century, the founders studied the history of ancient Rome to consider how they could preserve the new American republic. In the 19th century, Charles Dickens noted that, if Americans are to be believed, their country is "always depressed, always stagnant, always in dire straits, and always has been." In 1979, a drawing of the Statue of Liberty with a tear rolling down its cheek was published on the front page of a magazine devoted to the theme of national decline.

I call it the "golden glow of the past" that has long attracted Americans, but in reality America has never had the power and strength that many ascribe to it. Even with superior resources, America often failed to get what it wanted. Those who believe that the world today has become more complex and disordered than in the past should recall, for example, the events of 1956, when the US was unable to prevent the Soviet Union from suppressing an uprising in Hungary, and our allies - Britain, France and Israel - invaded the Suez Canal Zone. To paraphrase comedian Will Rogers, "hegemony ain't what it used to be, and never has been." Periods of "decadent mood" tell us more about the psychology of the population than about geopolitics.

Still, it's clear that the idea of ​​decline is touching a bare nerve in American politics, turning it into reliable fuel for partisan agitation. Sometimes concern about decline leads to protectionist measures that do more harm than good. And sometimes periods of arrogant confidence lead to overexertion, as in the case of the Iraq war. There is nothing good in either overestimating American strength or underestimating it.

In geopolitics, it is important to distinguish between absolute and relative decline. If we compare, it turns out that America entered a state of decline immediately after the end of the Second World War. Its share in the world economy was never equal to half again, and it lost its monopoly on nuclear weapons (which the USSR acquired in 1949). The war strengthened the American economy and weakened all others. But the rest of the world's economies recovered, and by 1970 America's share of global GDP had fallen to one-third (about the same as before World War II).

President Richard Nixon saw this as a sign of decline and separated the dollar from the gold standard. But half a century has passed, the dominance of the dollar remains, and the US share of global GDP is still equal to a quarter. Besides, America's "weakening" did not prevent it from winning the Cold War.

Today, China's rise is often cited as evidence of America's decline. Looking exclusively at the balance of power between the US and China, one can indeed see a shift in favor of China, which in comparative terms can be considered an American decline. But in absolute numbers, the US is still much stronger and will remain so. China is a very impressive competitor, but it has serious weaknesses. And in the overall balance of power, the US has at least six long-term advantages.

First, the geography. The US is surrounded by two oceans and borders two friendly countries, while China borders 14 countries, some of which it has territorial disputes with, including India. Second, the US has relative energy independence, while China is dependent on imports.

Third, America's strength comes from large, transnational financial institutions and the international role of the dollar. A trusted reserve currency must be freely convertible and rely on deep capital markets and the rule of law. China has none of this. Fourth, the United States has a comparative demographic advantage. It is the only major developed country projected to retain its position (third) in the world population rankings. Over the next decade, seven of the 15 largest economies will have a shrinking workforce; in the US, however, the labor force is expected to increase, while in China it reached its peak as early as 2014.

Fifth, America has long been a leader in key technologies (biotechnology, nanotechnology, information technology). China invests heavily in research and development (and has a good record on patents), but according to Chinese rankings, the country's scientific and educational institutions still lag behind those in the United States. Finally, according to international polls, the US is ahead of China when it comes to the country's soft power and attractiveness.

In other words, in the competition between the great powers of the 21st century, the United States holds strong cards. However, if Americans succumb to hysteria over China's rise, or relax into thinking that that rise has passed its peak, then America could be playing its cards badly. A serious mistake would be to give up assets, such as strong alliances and influence in international organizations. Not only would this not make America great, it would also make America very weak.

Americans should fear the rise of populist nationalism in their own country more than the rise of China. Populist measures, such as leaving NATO or refusing to support Ukraine, would greatly damage American soft power. If Trump wins the presidential election in November, then this year could prove to be a turning point for American power. The feeling of weakness could finally be justified.

Even if a country retains a dominant external power, it may lose its internal values ​​and attractiveness to others. The Roman Empire continued to exist long after the loss of the republican form of government. Representing the American form of government chosen by the founders, Benjamin Franklin declared, "A republic, if you can preserve it." Given the growing polarization and fragility of American democracy, it is precisely this development that could cause the downfall of America.

The author is a professor emeritus at Harvard University

Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024. (translation: NR)

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