In 2024, seven of the world's ten most populous countries face crucial national elections that will have a profound and long-term impact on the political landscape of the global community. These elections will not only shape the internal political currents of these countries, but will also have wider consequences for international relations, economy and geopolitical stability.
In India, the most populous country in the world, elections represent an opportunity to define the country's course in terms of economic development, social justice, international relations and solving environmental problems. Elections will be held in April and May, and 543 members of parliament will be elected.
The United States, a global superpower, faces issues of political polarization, economic imbalances, and its role in geopolitical solutions. The US elections will be held on November 5, and it is increasingly likely that we will have a repeat of the 2020 elections and a Trump-Biden showdown again. American society is very polarized and has a lot of internal problems. If Trump were to win the elections, there would probably be a protectionist policy that would disrupt many economic flows, and it would also affect the conflict in Ukraine because Trump's policy would be to keep the huge amount of money that finances Ukraine at the disposal of the US. In addition, Trump's victory would also mean a change in migration policy. It would be one of the largest illegal repatriation projects ever. It is about 3,5 million migrants who entered across the border in the last 3 years. If Biden wins the election, we can expect even more support for Ukraine in the war and the continuation of the liberal migration policy and, very likely, amnesty for millions of newly arrived in the USA. These elections represent a confrontation between two systems. Trump represents the America First movement, while Biden represents the liberal-left forces. Trump represents the ideology of the America First movement, which advocates nationalism and isolationism. One of the main creators of this movement is the late Andrew Breibart through the Tea Party and Citizen United led by David Bossi.
Indonesia and Pakistan, with their huge populations, will face development, rule of law and resource management challenges. The vote in Bangladesh, the eighth most populous country in the world, was boycotted by the opposition and the victory of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Taiwan's election was hotly contested against a backdrop of increasing pressure from Beijing. The elections were held on January 13, the victory was won by Lai Ching-te from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which indicates not strong inclinations towards independence within the society itself, but also heralds the continuation of tensions between China and the USA.
Russia, often the subject of controversy in international relations, is passing through an important moment in domestic politics and foreign relations. Compared to the USA, in Russia the winner of the election is already known. Vladimir Putin will secure a new mandate. This can be Russia's advantage, because there will not be a period of transition of power and this creates the possibility that they can already influence geopolitical relations. Trump's victory would possibly mean a thaw in relations with the US for Russia. Also, the center of gravity of American geopolitics would shift towards the South China Sea and China itself. The reason for the thaw would be of an ideological nature because Trump, as a representative of the America First movement, focuses on solving internal problems and distributing funds for domestic needs. With less US support, Ukraine would not have the means to continue the war. And that would lead to the end of the war in Ukraine with certain peace negotiations. The question that arises is whether it is better to leave Russia in an alliance with China or to thaw relations in order to prioritize dialogue and the continuation of economic projects of Western countries with Russia in the future. Would the mere thawing of relations present Russia as the victor and the US as the vanquished, or would it be a victory for world peace? We can find out the answers to these questions after 2024, which will create the geopolitical direction.
Mexico, a country with a rich history and complex social structures, struggles with issues of immigration, security and economic development. The elections will be held on June 2 and these elections are historic because, as it is now assumed, a woman will most likely be elected president. Claudia Scheinbaum from the left-wing party Morena, the chosen successor of the current president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, from the same party, and Xochitl Galvez from the conservative party PAN have a chance to win.
In addition, the European Parliament elections bring additional challenges, given the growing popularity of populist parties and the increased fragmentation of the political scene in Europe. Future EU institutions must show readiness for expansion and implementation of concrete moves. After the exit of Great Britain from the Union, one seat remained vacant, so there is an opinion that it is time for the EU institutions to make certain efforts so that, based on the principle of the regatta, that seat deservedly belongs to Montenegro, which is a member of NATO and has harmonized its foreign policy with political EU. The period of transition of power passed peacefully, and now the closing of the negotiation chapters is in sight. In addition, future EU politicians must have more influence in their own backyard. This refers to Republika Srpska, Kosovo and Serbia.
In addition to the mentioned countries, elections will be held in Austria, Portugal, Croatia, Great Britain, the Republic of South Africa, Tunisia, Taiwan, Venezuela...
All these elections have the potential to shape the future not only of these countries, but also of global political dynamics and international cooperation. That's why a fight is expected on all possible fronts, from classic political debates to internet campaigns and the use of artificial intelligence in informing, and very often misinforming, the population in order to instill certain attitudes in citizens that are closer to one or another political option. Expectations regarding the upcoming elections are high, as the world community faces numerous challenges and changes that require meaningful and responsible political decisions.
Citizens around the world expect their elected leaders to be able to tackle complex issues such as economic inequality, climate change, migration, security and health. In this context, it is important that the elections are not seen only as a means of coming to power, but as an opportunity for citizens to express their views, hopes and expectations regarding the future of their societies. Regardless of the election results, it is critical that political leaders serve their citizens with respect, responsibility and commitment. Only such an approach guarantees a prosperous and peaceful life.
The author is an economist
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