Jean-Pierre Schevenman, a prominent French statesman and politician, former Minister of Justice, titled his book in which he recapitulates Europe's historical duration over the period of a century with this question: "Is Europe emerging from history?".
Observations on the same and similar topics continued, in fact reinforced by the coming anarchies in the world, which are largely caused by disrespecting or relativizing basic international rules and rights. The European Union found itself, without clear answers to the end, in that increasingly chaotic international life, of which wars are an integral part, even on European soil, with consequences that are still unfathomable.
Recently, the French President Macron, during his speech at the Sorbonne, warned, and in an even more dramatic way, that Europe could die. At the same time, they tie Europe's destiny to previous issues, first of all, its functionality and geopolitical independence.
However, Europe, and its impressively successful Union in many respects, were not without compasses in their navigation that help guide the direction. Thus, the legacy of Jean Monet, above all the spirit of rationality and pragmatism, remains a fundamental method. Even at this moment, probably the most complex in the history of the European Union.
A potentially new European Union exam is expected already in the second half of this year. It is about European exams that the Union continuously goes through and that mean encounters with the truth about oneself. Monet's approach implies that every crisis should be turned into a chance for new progress.
If the European crisis is deep - due to insufficiently efficient functioning, hazy visions of the way forward, irrelevance on a turbulent international level - then Monet's formula should lead to a qualitatively new and therefore breakthrough period. The stakes are high.
The status quo is considered, not without reason, the worst option. In that case, Schevenman's question becomes relevant again.
It should be said that the current complicated moment with many risks comes after several successful phases when the European Union launched its great resources. Even for the first time in its history, a joint EU loan was implemented, in the context of the successful and solidary fight against Covid-19, when the Next Generation (and RRF) projects were implemented. Exemplary results were also achieved in industrial-technological and transition ecological, trade, finally and strategic competitions, including those with the great economic rivals USA and China. Finally, the policy of sanctions towards Russia was harmonized relatively quickly, even though some member countries then interpreted the nature of the sanctions differently, retaining in some, often indirect way, the cooperation of their companies with the Russian economy.
In a programmatic manner, large discussions on the topic of "The Future of Europe" were started, which were supposed to lead to the formulation of "Strategic Autonomy".
It has been shown that accelerated negative trends on the international level, increasingly frequent defeats of multilateralism, new contexts of challenging previous international systems and rules, and finally new wars - have weakened the position of the European Union, apparently with great difficulty in positioning itself and acting on a turbulent international level.
The European Union paid less attention to newly emerging and increasingly risky entanglements in the world, becoming their victim in a specific way.
On the one hand, it is a victim of insufficient relevance with its exclusively soft power, and on the other, increased differences between the members of the European Union regarding important and even strategic issues on the international level. Is international politics in times of crisis the Achilles heel of the European Union?
A special place, even in the differences, is the current and future relationship of the EU with the USA, which Macron sees as important in the aforementioned presentation, stating that Europe will disappear if it remains an "American vassal".
While this topic is viewed cautiously among Europeans at this stage, mostly with "closed cards", in the USA, the country of open and democratic debates, this issue is being elaborated over a longer period of time.
I remind you of a slightly earlier period and three prominent American political thinkers of international relations, who synthesized the future relations between the EU and the US in the following way.
While Robert Kagan in his essay on power and weakness treats "Hobbesian" America and "Kantian" Europe, reducing its importance, Charles Kupchan believes that over time American aggressiveness will force Europe to federalize and become a separate power, opposite the USA.
Among the above-mentioned views, David Kaleo, also an established expert on diplomacy and international relations, argued in his works on the future of Europe that the dissolution of the Euro-Atlantic alliance would be harmful not only for the USA and Europe, but for the whole world, bringing new instability that would restrained even harder.
The discussion, as a form of permanent EU conference on the future of Europe, was stopped by the war in Ukraine. The search for a strategic compass is no longer talked about, nor about similar European topics from a few years ago.
All the geopolitical and war experiences in Ukraine and Palestine, the shaken state of the rules of multilateralism that arose after the Second World War, will surely help when designing the further European path. Somewhere in the rapprochement of the member states, somewhere in possible new differences.
And while the Old European continent, with its great civilizational tradition, occasionally with "ghosts" in it, is going through its new trials, now with a war on its territory, the elections for the European Parliament are being held on Sunday.
The word elections should be used in the plural, because they are held in 27 countries. And that moment reminds of the important fact that the center of gravity of the sovereignty of the European Union is in the member states. The new European delegates will represent their countries and political families to which they belong. Bearing in mind that the "spook" of right-wing national-sovereign populism is "circling Europe", expectations are that the new EPP will also be majority right-centered, therefore - more nationally selfish, less European reformist and visionary.
It remains to be seen, although we can already conclude that the upcoming elections will not be historic. Nor "The Longest Day" as the film about the landing of the Allies in Normandy on June 6, 1944 is titled, so exactly before the 80s when the horror of Nazism was defeated militarily on the territory of Europe.
For many, many reasons, its past and its future, Europe remains the protagonist of history.
That's how it seems to us, here in the European enclave, in the Western Balkans, which is surrounded on all sides by the member countries of the European Union.
All in a strong, sincere desire to deservedly share the European reality and future together.
Bonus video:
