There are different assessments of the peace summit on Ukraine, the so-called "peace formula" plan of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy held in Switzerland, but certain categorical theses can be drawn that will determine the course of future peace negotiations.
The summit managed to bring together almost half of the sovereign states of the world, members of the UN, with the fact that some influential states such as India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Brazil, and even the Vatican did not sign the joint communique.
Russia was not invited to the summit, and that is the reason why China did not participate either.
The summit in Switzerland can be considered not only as a test of international support for the Ukrainian "peace formula", but also as the first global gathering on ending the war in Ukraine. It is important that it was led by Kiev.
Peace plans and upheavals at the front
In order to reduce support for Ukraine's plan to end the war, Putin outlined his terms for a ceasefire ahead of the summit in Switzerland. The bottom line is that Moscow stops its aggression, if Ukraine withdraws from the newly annexed territories - Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.
None of the mentioned areas, due to which Putin changed the Constitution of the Russian Federation, is fully controlled by Russia, and the mass deaths of Russian soldiers on the front are now considered by Moscow as a war of liberation.
What is Zelenski's "peace formula"? It was proposed in the fall of 2022, in the midst of the euphoria of the Ukrainian liberation of the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, while the Russian army was running headfirst into the fields.
Zelensky's peace formula was in fact a maximalist 10-point plan to defeat Russia. He predicted the withdrawal of Russia from Ukrainian territories, the trial of the Russian army for war crimes, the payment of compensation to Ukraine. Even when the defeat of Russia in the Ukraine was not impossible, the primary plan foresaw the near capitulation of Imperial Russia.
After the Ukrainian formula, various plans for the resolution of the war came to the table - Chinese, South American, Vatican, Turkish...
Over time, the situation at the front changed. The Ukrainians unsuccessfully attempted a counter-offensive, and Russia took the initiative and launched a new attack since the autumn of last year.
As the USA and the EU got closer to the elections, the mood towards the war in Ukraine changed again in the West. Washington created a stalemate in the delivery of weapons, which directly caused the advance of the Russian army and the decline of morale among the Ukrainians. Many wondered if this was pressure on Kiev to sit down at the negotiating table?
Lowering the bar
Wanting to preserve his "peace formula", Zelenski decides to lower the bar in unfavorable circumstances. China initially participated in the discussion on Zelensky's "peace formula", only to leave it later, providing equally intensive economic and political support to Russia.
Kiev does not give up its formula, it significantly changes it in order to gain the widest possible support and agrees to compromises to leave only three of the 10 points, which were included in the final communique, namely: nuclear security, the exchange of prisoners (and the return of children) and humanitarian food corridor in the Black Sea.
That is why the cynical assessment of Zelenskiy's formula is that Russia's capitulation was demanded, and the communique was agreed to, which does not even mention the withdrawal of the Russian army from Ukraine. Nevertheless, Kyiv received the support of a large number of countries, which it can probably count on in the future.
The biggest weakness of the summit in Switzerland was the absence of US President Biden. He saved himself not only for the presidential elections, but also for the peace processes on Ukraine, which are yet to come.
Beijing could influence a faster end to the war in Ukraine, but the conflict does not harm it. Moreover, he got a huge, stuck-up and useful vassal from the Kremlin. The war in Ukraine affects the poorest countries of the Global South the most, but it is also a way of establishing a vertical between them.
Europe is also affected by this war, just like the Western Balkans and the countries of the former Yugoslavia, which surprisingly rarely unanimously supported Zelenski's formula.
Although the war in Ukraine would ideally end before the presidential elections in the USA, their favorite is waiting for a more serious peace process, with the assumption of Trump's victory. Until autumn, it is important to position yourself well, present all the peace plans and count the countries who are on whose side.
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