More than 300 days have passed since the start of the war in Gaza and not only is there no end in sight, but we are watching the danger of the conflicts escalating on the fronts that have been activated in response to the suffering of the Palestinians. Although it has applied all its military knowledge, Israel has not achieved the goals it announced in October. The kidnapped were not returned, Hamas was not defeated. But the absence of results did not affect the attitude of the regime that only the language of force is understood and spoken in the Middle East. This position manifests itself as a determination to (almost) never give in and never back down, a willingness to ensure that no generation in the country lives in peace and that the usual life cycle consists of going to the army and serving in the reserve. The Israelis seem to have accepted that armed conflicts are inevitable and that they must be dealt with somehow.
It is becoming more and more obvious that this is a war that Israel was not allowed to enter, but someone has to say it officially. Instead of an immediate attack on Gaza, it was necessary to think with a cool head and set as the most important priority the achievement of an agreement on the return of the kidnapped Israelis, which would begin the process of healing the trauma caused by the attack on October 7. The second priority of any responsible government had to be to take the necessary steps to ensure a secure future for the country and the region, which cannot be achieved by mere military force, as the past decades of the existence of the Israeli state have shown. Neither were priorities, and the lack of a real long-term strategy is being covered up by Netanyahu's government by making dangerous tactical moves such as this week's liquidation of the leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas.
Since the beginning of the war, the political and military leadership has planned to eliminate all those behind the October attack, just as it was done after the murders of Israeli athletes at the 1972 Olympics in Munich. The hunt for members of the Palestinian organization who prepared the attack lasted for 20 years, until 1992, when an agreement was signed that implied mutual recognition of Israel and the PLO. Time and the events that followed have shown that the concept that replaces political means with vengeful military operations that have no long-term benefits is wrong.
The last two liquidations of the leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah in Beirut and Tehran (although Israel only accepted responsibility for one) are presented to the public as a necessity to send a warning message to the enemy, lest it deter him from new actions. Instead of a thoughtful and responsible policy, the citizens were once again offered a performance that was supposed to awaken national pride ("no one can hide from Israeli intelligence") and a sense of uniqueness ("no one like us").
But what we have seen is only a demonstration of the technical and operational capabilities of the intelligence services and the military. No one really believes that Hamas and Hezbollah will admit defeat and give up after such actions. Uncertainty and fear of backlash and new war operations reign in the country. Everyone is on high alert as they wait and imagine retaliation, wondering when it will happen and who the target will be. If we ignore the victory ecstasy of part of the Israeli public (journalists immediately made comparisons with the famous Entebbe operation due to the complex planning and execution), these steps do not mean much because the vacant places will soon be filled, probably by more radical people who will want to prove themselves as strong leaders .* The cycle of violence will continue, the country and the region have come closer to new war sufferings with these murders.
Israel's military supremacy has never been in doubt, and the October 7 attack did not question it. But the adversary has developed capabilities and capacities in weapons and equipment, and Israeli citizens feel this very much. At one time, Israeli territories were inaccessible, except to small groups and individuals who infiltrated to carry out terrorist attacks. But about fifteen years ago, the situation began to change when Hamas acquired weapons with which it managed to hit the southern cities and thus heralded a period of alarms, sirens, disruption of normal life and fleeing to shelters. The citizens of Ashkelon and Sderot angrily said that the government would have acted differently and been more effective in preventing Hamas attacks if Tel Aviv had been targeted. However, the problem is not in the choice of targets, but in the absence of strategic goals from the Israeli side: what after the military operations? Israeli governments have never seen a complete end to the conflict as a realistic possibility. And to the recent drone attack on one of Tel Aviv's main streets by the Houthis, the regime responded again with force, after which it did not offer the citizens any plan for the future.
History shows that no amount of "warning and deterrence" is effective in the long run, even though they are studied as useful in modern military strategy courses. The only thing that works are agreements with neighbors, such as the agreements with Egypt and Jordan. Two years ago, the Lapid-Bennet government boldly signed one such agreement, on the delimitation of territorial waters in the Mediterranean Sea, with the government of Lebanon. That path was worth continuing in the name of peace and security of the country and the region.
While it is not certain what the Israeli government is aiming for in these times of war, it is clear what certain ministers in it want. From the powerful post of finance minister, Smotrich is thoroughly removing legal barriers related to military administration in the occupied territories and is in a hurry to complete the annexation by December, when according to the coalition agreement, he should rotate with his colleague from the ultra-orthodox Shas party. But what was Netanyahu thinking when he authorized the liquidations while the negotiations for the release of the abductees are ongoing and only a day after the inauguration of the new Iranian president?
The Prime Minister, despite being threatened with an arrest warrant for war crimes, embarked on an American tour a few days after the publication of the International Court's opinion on the Israeli occupation. His appearance at the Congress made a strong impression on the domestic audience. Netanyahu's speech was interrupted by applause from American senators, and he was greeted at home by new results of public opinion polls. For the largest percentage of citizens, he is still the best candidate for the position of Prime Minister, ahead of Lapid and Ganc. Despite the killed Palestinians and sacrificed Israelis, the prime minister's popularity is not threatened. American support is still there and Israel feels no real pressure to force it to change its position.
There is no doubt that Netanyahu's government is leading Israel to ruin, but it is not the only one to blame for the current situation. It is about the outcome of bad political decisions by the citizens themselves, who often trusted politicians who advocated military solutions, despite the price that was paid in human lives. It is difficult to say what will be and when the final act of this government will happen. Perhaps, in order to stay in power, she is ready for an apocalyptic scenario of a scorched earth.** It is obvious that none of them have mercy and that there is no future with them.
* There are many such examples. In a joint operation with the CIA, Israel liquidated Imad Mughniyeh in 2008, who was considered the second man in Hezbollah. His death did not threaten the organization.
** Haaretz reported that as a result of firefights between the army and Hezbollah on both sides of the border, 21.000 hectares of land were burned, which is three times the area of the two largest fires in the country's history.
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