It has been clear for some time that two electoral processes - one on each side of the Atlantic - are crucial to the fate of liberal democracy in 2024: the European Parliament elections in June and the US presidential elections in November. Although predictions that the European elections would bring a landslide victory to far-right anti-European parties did not materialize, liberal democracy is far from safe, both in Europe and in the United States.
Although the European Union was spared the worst in recent elections, far-right parties achieved significant success, especially in the two largest (economically) and most important (politically) members, France and Germany. In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany took second place, while the center-right Christian Democrats remained the strongest force. In France, the far-right National Rally came out on top, forcing President Emmanuel Macron to dissolve parliament and call snap elections.
That decision brought the National Gathering one step away from power, although disaster was avoided in the second round of elections. The left, united under the umbrella of the New People's Front, won first place, but did not reach the majority. With such a parliament, France will be paralyzed, and this could have fatal consequences for Europe. Germany cannot advance alone towards the goal of guaranteeing security to the European bloc in an increasingly dangerous world.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the Atlantic, a political hurricane is brewing. After a poor performance in the June debate, President Joe Biden finally decided to drop out of the race and endorse his running mate, Kamala Harris. And Donald Trump is on the verge of victory. If the polls are confirmed, he could return to the White House in January. And that would have far-reaching consequences for Europe (and for the rest of the West).
Such an outcome would not only affect Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, the fundamentally changed security situation in Europe, or the uncertain future of NATO. It is, in fact, about the basic values and institutions that support Western democracy. If the US transforms from a liberal democracy to an "illiberal" one, there will be many in Europe who will celebrate its new identity. The degree to which America can influence European affairs should never be underestimated.
The new Trump mandate would not be like the previous one. Trump 2.0 would do everything he could to permanently transform America from a liberal democracy to one where his autocratic, authoritarian impulses would have free rein. He would show zero tolerance towards his enemies and rivals and would not care at all about the separation of powers or the constitution. He already demonstrated how far he is willing to go on January 6, 2021, when he encouraged his supporters to storm the Capitol after weeks of attempts to overturn the results of free and fair elections.
That is why Russian President Vladimir Putin is not the only one hoping for Trump's victory. All the right-wing nationalist and far-right parties are hoping for it because they want to make the same changes at home.
Our current understanding of Western liberal democracy - with the separation of powers, free and fair elections, the rule of law, constitutional protection of minorities, freedom of speech and other basic rights - is the result of America's victories in World War II and later in the Cold War. If the United States were to abandon its role as the driving force and leading example of this liberal form of democracy, the liberal West as a whole would be in danger, and liberal Europe even more so.
A Trump victory would strengthen and embolden far-right nationalist parties across the continent, and empower Russia through the end of US support for Ukraine. With the current state of affairs in France, the European project would be completely at the mercy of those who want to end it. For those who value the European Union, this would be a nightmare.
As the Ukraine crisis has shown, the transatlantic West cannot be defeated from without, but it can be weakened and broken from within. If Europeans slide back into nationalism, we will miss our last chance to shape our own destiny and provide peace and freedom for our children and grandchildren.
When one considers the changing geopolitical environment - rivalry between great powers, the rise of the global south, the demographic weakness of advanced economies and new technological revolutions - one can conclude that Europe will not get another chance to shape the world of tomorrow. Much will be at stake on November 5, 2024, when Americans go to the polls. The world as we know it here, in liberal Europe, could cease to exist on the morning of November 6.
The author was the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Vice Chancellor of Germany from 1998 to 2005; he led the German Green Party for almost 20 years
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024. (translation: NR)
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