Why do certain countries dominate the Olympics? The answer may be in the correlation between sports success and GDP. The 2024 Olympics in Paris were a case in point: the seven countries that won the most medals - the United States, China, Japan, Australia, France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom - are among the world's 20 largest economies.
This can partly be explained by demographics: the larger the population, the larger the number of sports talents from which selection can be made. The more numerous and developed a country is, the more likely it is to win Olympic medals.
This conclusion can be supported empirically. By weighting the total number of medals won by each country by value - three points for gold, two for silver and one for bronze - it becomes obvious that all 12 countries with the highest number of medals won in Paris - are from developed economies. G7 countries, which account for 43,5% of global GDP, won 33,8% of all medals. Africa, with a share of 3% in the world economy, won 3,7% of the total number of medals. And Latin America, which represents 7,3% of global GDP, took just under 6% of the medals, almost a third of which went to its largest economy, Brazil.
Although the correlation between GDP and Olympic results is strong, it is not absolute. Take, for example, the European Union: although they account for 17,5% of global GDP, EU countries won almost 30% of the medals in Paris. This suggests that the dominance of European countries stems in part from their effective national sports policies and deep-rooted sporting traditions. Of course, Europe also benefits because many Olympic sports were invented there.
Asia, for its part, is too politically and culturally heterogeneous for its Olympic performance to be reduced to a single explanation. While China, Japan and Australia are the three major sporting powers in Asia and Oceania, the Indian subcontinent has a relatively modest Olympic output.
In fact, India is perhaps the most striking example of how GDP can be a poor indicator of Olympic success. Despite a population of 1,4 billion people and an economy that accounts for 7,9% of global GDP (in terms of purchasing power parity), India ranked 2024st in the list of medal winners at the 71 Olympics. And Australia, which has only 26 million inhabitants, won 5% of the medals and took 4th place.
As expected, the United States and China led the race at the 2024 Olympics, winning 12% and 10% of all medals, respectively. This can largely be explained by their economic strength and population size. However, the number of medals won in America was significantly lower than would be expected given its economic power - about 20% of global GDP.
True, economic development and demographics alone are not enough to guarantee Olympic success. "Unlocking" the sporting potential of a country requires effective policies and adequate infrastructure. This is precisely why sparsely populated but highly developed countries, such as Australia, often exceed expectations, while densely populated ones, such as Nigeria, practically do not win medals.
Sports culture also plays an important role. African countries, for example, excel in athletics, especially middle and long-distance running, largely due to the high-altitude training tradition in East Africa. It should also be said that long-distance running does not require sophisticated infrastructure or access to high-level sports facilities, as is the case with other Olympic sports such as swimming, fencing and gymnastics, which are still dominated by wealthy Western countries and China. For example, French swimming sensation Leon Marchand, who won four gold medals in Paris, trains in the United States. Also, the gold winner, the Algerian gymnast Kajlija Nemur trains in France.
Differences in the number of Olympic medals won offer valuable, if nuanced, geopolitical insights. At first glance, the number of medals won at the 2024 Olympics seems like a reflection of our increasingly multipolar world. Of the 206 countries and territories that participated in the games, 92 won medals, and the Paris Olympics are therefore proof that the global landscape is becoming more open and competitive.
But the fact that 50% of the medals are concentrated among the G7 countries and China, which together account for 60% of global GDP, shows that the way forward is still long. Although both sports and the world economy are moving towards greater multipolarity, the pace of those changes could be slower and more limited than many expect.
The author is a professor at Sciences Po; he was a special adviser to the EU High Representative for foreign policy and security
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024. (translation: NR)
Bonus video:
