Montenegro is the smallest of the six Western Balkan countries that want to join the EU. With slightly more than 600.000 inhabitants and an area of 13.800 square km, it would reach, among the 27 EU countries, the size of Luxembourg - relatively the richest member of the Union. However, Montenegro could play a key role in the next five years of the mandate of the new EU Commission and give a new impetus to the expansion of the Union. At least Montenegrin President Jakov Milatović is convinced of that. In a statement he gave to the Standard on Monday, on the sidelines of a forum on strategic perspectives for enlargement in Alpbach, he said he believed his country could become a member of the EU in 2028. For this, he received specific signals from Brussels and governments in EU capitals. Unlike the other five candidates in the Western Balkans, all 35 negotiating chapters of Montenegro with the Commission have already been opened, and three have already been closed.
A change in mood?
The Government of Montenegro could achieve further concrete progress this year. The president sees the reason for his optimism in the fact that the mood in Brussels has somewhat changed in the enlargement policy, which had been practically paralyzed for years.
The war in Ukraine, as well as the possibility of Russia and China gaining increasing influence in Eastern Europe and the Balkans, are sharpening the awareness of many EU countries on how to strategically tie this region to themselves, said Austrian Minister for Europe Karoline Edtstadler (ÖVP). Because, after Brexit, due to the pandemic, war and other crises, the enlargement - which Austria has always stood for - has been stalled. But now it is slowly becoming clear that the EU will not be able to give comforting reports forever to the countries that want to join it. And it becomes clear that signals are needed that countries that are really willing to join the EU belong to Europe.
That's exactly what Milatović is counting on. Eleven years have passed since Croatia became the last member of the EU. However, Serbia, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Kosovo have been failing in this intention for a long time: due to their own inability to reform and only comfort from the EU, even though the Union has definitely increased its aid. In addition, there are many states within the EU - France in particular - who are skeptical about any further admission of members until the Union itself is ready for enlargement and adapts its decision-making structures.
A possible icebreaker
But by doing nothing, the discussants at several forum formats in Alpbach agreed, the EU will not make any progress and will end up on the defensive. Montenegro could therefore serve as an ice-breaker by quickly joining, if possible already in the mandate of the new Commission until 2029. The new-old President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, included progress in this project in her program. The accession of Montenegro could be realized even without internal reforms of the EU. Such a small country would hardly disrupt the existing structure of the EU. One could even jokingly say that before Brexit, the Union had 28 members. When such a small country "replaces" Great Britain, the old order is restored.
Things are quite different for all the other candidate countries, which are far from fulfilling any criteria for "full membership", mainly due to deficiencies in the rule of law, corruption or bad administration. Minister Edtstadler believes that (after Montenegro) Albania can be the next candidate that will come close to joining the EU. But she is convinced that something in this direction must be done by 2029 and wants to fight for this goal.
Moldovan Vice Prime Minister for European Integration Kristina Gerasimov showed in Alpbach how important a clear perspective of EU accession is for neighboring countries and EU candidate countries that strive for freedom and democracy. People need to believe that the efforts and reforms are worth it, she said. Since the escalation of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, it is clearer than ever that "we share the same values and belong to Europe".
(Standard, Vienna)
Translation: Mirko Vuletić
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