In recent years, there have been many electoral successes of far-right populists in Europe with parties that not so long ago were considered unacceptable to most voters, finishing first in many countries, entering government, and sometimes even leading it.
However, the question is whether the success of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) on Sunday was one of the more symbolic.
For the first time in Germany's post-World War II history, a far-right populist party finished first in the national elections. And the fact that it happened on September 1, on the 85th anniversary since Nazi Germany invaded Poland and started a world war with genocidal consequences, has significance.
Indeed, the victory of the AfD in the federal state of Thuringia in the eastern part of Germany was fully expected.
The party led in all polls leading up to the election and won convincingly, winning 32,8 percent of the vote - almost ten percentage points more than the second-placed party, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
With a turnout of 73 percent, the highest in three decades, the result cannot be explained as a general lack of interest.
The AfD is unlikely to end up in the provincial government despite its success, as all other political parties have vowed to avoid an alliance with it. But the AfD's power will make it difficult to form a coalition and may block judicial appointments and constitutional changes.
The night could have been better for the AfD if it had finished in first place in the second provincial election held on the same day in neighboring Saxony.
Here, the CDU, with an advantage of 1,3 percentage points (31,9 percent to 30,6 percent), outperformed the AfD, but the AfD still jumped by three percentage points from the previous elections held in 2019. True, it was the CDU's the worst election result in a country he has dominated politically since the reunification of Germany 34 years ago.
The momentum was clearly on the side of the extreme right.
However, it was not only celebrated among AfD supporters. Another populist organization, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, BSW), which emerged from the established far-Left party in early 2024, finished third in both states (11,8 percent of the vote in Saxony and 15,8 percent in Thuringia ). She, like the AfD, opposes the European Union and the arming of Ukraine, but sympathizes with the Kremlin.
However, unlike other left-wing parties on the Old Continent, it is also a vocal critic of increased immigration. Despite many pronounced similarities, there will be no political alliance between the far left and the right. At least not now. The BSW will instead seek to become a tough coalition partner with the established parties in Saxony and Thuringia, although it will be a challenge to see what they can agree on and how long they can actually govern.
Among the three parties that make up the federal government in Berlin - the left-wing SPD, the Greens and the liberal FDP, the latter did not cross the five percent threshold in any of the federal states. The Greens barely survived in Saxony, and the once-powerful SPD will have representation in both chambers, although it failed to win double-digit support in either province.
Given that Germany's federal elections are only a year away, this is alarming for a coalition already beset by so many internal conflicts.
Can it last another 12 months?
There are two ways of salvation. First, on September 22nd, the third provincial elections will be held in Brandenburg, another East German province. Here, the AfD is currently at the top of the polls, but the CDU is on its heels, and more importantly - the SPD. This race will be interesting to follow.
Another way of salvation is that there will be those who will say that the result should not be taken too seriously. The elections (and the upcoming one in Brandenburg) were held in the states of the former German Democratic Republic and, although the unification of Germany happened back in 1990, there are still divisions between east and west, both economically and politically.
In the East, a large part of the electorate is anti-Western and tends towards authoritarianism. The AfD, like the BSW, is significantly less popular across Germany. They will not take power in Berlin next year. But for now, their electoral success will have a chilling effect on politics in Berlin. Autumn in Germany will be full of anxiety.
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