A few weeks after the elections in Podgorica, all relevant public opinion surveys confirm that there has been an "ossification" of the electorate in Montenegro and that the number of so-called of fluid votes is quite limited, that is, insufficient to be able to significantly change the existing balance of power. In a situation where the electorate is clearly divided and when all large coalitions or parties play "defensively" protecting their portion of the voting cake by using rhetoric ranging from aggressive to extremist, the most interesting party plays for the role of the tongue in the balance, if it is even possible.
The formation of new coalitions and parties before the elections in Podgorica is motivated by the desire to earn the role of the so-called kingmaker on the Montenegrin political scene. The experience of the Ura Citizens' Movement in the period between 2021 and 2023 from a historical exception and a hard-to-repeat confluence of circumstances has become, at least in part of Montenegrin society, a valid and only option to keep Montenegro equally distant from the so-called the Serbian world and the criminal octopus. Specifically, to prevent both, in the first step, from having a majority in the new convocation of the city assembly in Podgorica and then in the Assembly of Montenegro after the next republican elections, and in the second to force one of the two opposing blocs to support the minority government.
The mentioned calculation has its own logic, but it starts from one assumption that is no longer so certain, namely that the Bosniak and Albanian national parties will be on the opposite side of the Serbian national parties. The fact is that for years the DPS regime held power in an equation that treated the parties of less numerous nations as traditional partners and unquestionable allies against the common enemy. The development of events on the Montenegrin stage in the last year has shown that a 180-degree turn is possible, with the fact that it did not come from the inside but from the outside.
Looking from Podgorica's perspective, it is not understood how it is possible for the Bosniak and Albanian parties to form a ruling coalition with the Serbian, especially after the latest outbursts and provocations - from the text on the Borba website about the "Islamization of Podgorica" to blocking the road near the border with Albania with a banner. When the army returns to Kosovo".
If we look at the entry into the government of the parties of two smaller nations in Montenegro from a narrow Montenegrin or even regional perspective, we will not get good answers, on the contrary, we will go astray. Turkey is largely behind the drastic change in political geography in Montenegro. Ankara has made a big turn in its relations with the European Union and the United States of America because it sees the possibility of becoming an autonomous geopolitical player in this part of the world.
While in the Western Balkans they were fooling around with the "Serbian world", a platitude that echoes propaganda as much as the emptiness of its creators in Belgrade under the direct control of the Kremlin, they did not notice that the original and much more concrete and realistic world, the "Turkish world", was spreading. It is a very indicative example that the two most reactionary rulers in the 19th century, Abdulhamid II and Alexander III, are role models for Turkish President Erdogan and Russian Putin.
Let's recall that long before the Russians, the Turks launched the idea of a "Turkish world" with the intention of bringing together all the former provinces that the Ottoman Empire ruled for centuries. It is about the beginning of the last decade of the last century when the map of the "Turkish world" appeared in textbooks in Turkish schools for the first time, from Xinjiang in China to the Balkans in Europe and the Maghreb in Africa. Only 15 years later, according to the Turkish matrix, the Russians launched "Russian peace" claiming the territory of the former USSR, and their puppets in Belgrade adapted the idea a whole decade later, baptizing it "Serbian world".
In the meantime, Erdogan, since he is not the creator of the "Turkish world" and likes to be the originator of something new, renamed the doctrine "geography of the heart". The essence remains the same, but the name is more inclusive and less problematic. At the opening of the school year at the military academy in Istanbul, the President of Turkey vividly said that the geography of his and the Turkish heart does not know the borders that have been drawn in the last hundred or more years and that have separated peoples who have lived together for centuries, and that the goal is to erase them .
Erdogan does not fail to mention the Balkans in his imperialist speeches, in addition to all the other former Ottoman possessions in Asia, Europe and Africa. In the Balkans, the so-called mosque diplomacy. Turkey has renovated or built the most significant and largest Islamic places of worship, from Ferhadija in Banja Luka to the Great Mosque in Tirana (construction is still underway).
Erdogan himself mentioned on several occasions, and Bakir Izetbegović confirmed, that Alija Izetbegović entrusted him to take care of Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is no secret that the SDA in Bosnia and Herzegovina, to put it euphemistically, does not make any move that is not in line with the interests of Ankara, and the President of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik stands with the same respect for Erdogan as for Putin.
At the same time, Turkey is not only building the largest mosque in the Balkans, in Tirana, but has also completely taken over the Albanian army and intelligence services. Complete equipment for the Albanian army arrives from Turkey, and in that country most of the officers are trained. The relationship between the Turkish intelligence service and the Albanian intelligence service is, more or less, like that between the American security agencies and the German BND.
Turkey wants to avoid the creation of a new bipolar world in which America and China would have the main say and in which by force the opportunity would have to favor one side as during the Cold War. In this regard, Ankara has its biggest ally in Moscow. This is the key motive why Turkey systematically breaks down the Western wall of sanctions and continues to cooperate closely with Russia, even in very sensitive sectors, such as nuclear programs.
Another long-term goal of Turkey is to contribute to the swift departure of the United States of America from the Mediterranean and Southeastern Europe, because it is aware that as long as Washington is present in the region, it will not be able to realize its geopolitical goals and to form a group of countries that would be part of its zone of interest. .
Turkey's third goal, which also coincides with Russia's in the Western Balkans, especially after the definitive termination of Ankara's negotiations with Brussels on EU membership, is to leave Montenegro, Serbia, North Macedonia, Albania and Kosovo in the limbo of the European path as long as possible.
The fourth very important moment in Turkey's "great geopolitical game" is the encirclement and isolation of Greece. A necessary condition for Turkey to rise as a bicontinental autonomous power is the realization of the "Blue Homeland" project, i.e. Turkish domination over the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea and control of the entrance and exit of the Suez Canal (Somalia is also an important part of the geographical heart of Turkey). In this context, the noose for Turkish ambitions is the Greek islands in the Aegean Sea and Cyprus. In the mentioned speech in Istanbul, Erdogan emphasized that "our (Turkish, prim.aut) seas are as big as our horizons", alluding to the problem of the Greek islands that are in sight from the Turkish coast.
A good part of Erdogan's goals are not only compatible with Putin's, but also with the ambitions of Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. At the same time, Serbia and Montenegro are the only countries that are geographically and by nature close to Greece, winning them over or keeping them neutral in a future Turkish-Greek conflict is not a negligible matter, regardless of the strength and influence that Belgrade and Podgorica have. It is no coincidence that Serbia and Montenegro are the main targets of Turkish investments and investors in the region.
No matter how much the parties of the less numerous nations in Montenegro, just like the Serbian ones, beat their chests that they do not listen to what they are told from Sarajevo and Tirana, i.e. Belgrade, it is evident that they very carefully follow the signals that reach them and interpret them in their own way. . The news is that these messages have recently been inspired by the interests of Ankara, and it is not excluded that they are communicated directly without intermediaries.
Therefore, the turn of the Bosniak Party and the Albanian parties on the Montenegrin political stage is not of an episodic nature, that is, it will be conditioned to a good extent by Turkish interests in the region, which will be reflected through Sarajevo and Tirana. The excellent relations between Belgrade and Ankara, as well as the compatibility of the personal ambitions and plans of Vučić and Erdogan, along with the matching views of Turkey and Russia on the presence of the USA and the EU in our region, will greatly influence the Montenegrin political stage.
Nota bene: individual actions, performances, incidents, soloing should not have the effect of a tree from which one cannot see the forest. Turkey and Russia play a long-term game, unlike their outposts in Sarajevo, Tirana and Belgrade, and that is why the picture is often, at first glance, contradictory and illogical.
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