Two decades ago, in an informal conversation with Javier Solana, then high representative of the EU, on the sidelines of the Brussels Forum, I asked him a direct question about why he supported Vojislav Koštunica (in Serbia we had the cohabitation of newly elected President Boris Tadić and Prime Minister Koštunica). He looked at me mildly, almost fatherly, and answered in a barely audible voice: "The EU supports in Serbia, but also in the Western Balkans in general, those politicians who can deliver what was agreed ('who can deliver', was the literal answer in English). So , the matter is not of a personal but of a practical nature. Koštunica can finish the job, Tadic cannot".
Twenty years later, an experienced EU diplomat, who has been dealing with our region for 25 years, answered a similar question, why the EU stands behind Aleksandar Vučić, by reminding me of the myth about the tyrant from Syracuse Dionysius and the old woman.
Dionysius, the cruel dictator, knew that his subjects feared him as much as they hated him and wished him the worst, but since he despised and distrusted them, it did not affect him much. One day word reached him that in Syracuse an old woman, unlike all the others, prayed to the gods every night to give him good health and to live long. Intrigued by this news, Dionysius ordered his praetorians to bring him this unusual woman.
When the old woman came to the court, the tyrant curiously asked her how it is that she is the only one in Syracuse who prays for his health and long life?
"When I was little - the old woman began - Syracuse was ruled by an evil tyrant who usurped power with corruption, easy and unfulfillable promises. He only looked out for his own interest and did not care about the people. I prayed that he would die and my wish was granted.
In his place came an even worse ruler. He practically turned us into slaves by forcing us to work for him. Our life under him was far more miserable than before. Every night I begged the gods to take his life, and in the end they listened to me.
Then an even meaner and extremely evil dictator took power and imposed unbearable taxes on us and took what little we had. I again turned to the gods to free us from that evil and they came to meet me once again.
And then you came, Dinoisius, you are more cruel than all the previous ones, but I finally realized that after you, even worse will come and that's why I pray that the gods will live you and that you will live to a very old age."
More natural: if there was a change of government in Serbia now or in the near future, those who stand for universal values, Euro-Atlantic integration, anchoring Serbia in the West, good-neighborly relations would not come to Andrićev venac and Nemanjin, but an even harder nationalist and anti-European current. ready to run into the arms of Moscow and Beijing even at the cost of turning the country into the Albania of Enver Hoxha of our time.
"Amicus Plato, sed magis amica veritas", or "I love Plato, but I prefer the truth", and that is that in Serbia, three quarters, and some studies show even four fifths, of citizens recognize themselves in groups that we can define as nationalist, anti-Western, anti-European, Russophile, Sinophile, traditional, clerical, paranoid, closed, xenophobic, anti-liberal, anti-democratic, homophobic.
At its core, politics is mathematics: how to get the necessary majority to control half the parliament plus one MP. In other words, if someone wants to democratically change the government in Serbia, he must form an alliance with the parties that articulate the aforementioned positions or create a policy in which they will be recognized or perceived as acceptable.
The strength of European, pro-Western, libertarian, democratic Serbia does not exceed the potential of 20 percent in the electorate and, what is most devastating, is in a declining trend. The most educated, most capable, most enterprising citizens of Serbia have been continuously leaving the country for 35 years, which produced a decline in quality in all segments of society, especially in higher education, which was additionally exposed to toxic political influence.
The once prestigious institutions and establishments in Belgrade are in the hands of people who do not hide their deep animosity towards everything that has a sign of civil, European, liberal, democratic or Western. They have been contaminating new generations and the environment around them for decades and have managed to change the balance of power in society. Unfortunately, Serbia is not an exception, it is a trend that is registered in other European countries, members of the EU and NATO, even with an enviable democratic record.
The appearance of the strength of the opposition in Serbia, especially the one we perceive as pro-European, produces an effect that we could christen as the phenomenon of an asymmetric minority. Namely, the political representatives, epigones, opportunists, sinecurists, careerists, journalists, analysts of the ruling regime who represent the convincing majority of Serbia, live in the environment of, colloquially speaking, the Belgrade "circle of two" - otherwise a huge minority at the national level - and therefore have the sensation that they are minority and that they are endangered.
They don't read the regime's tabloids, they don't watch cringe television (except when they are the protagonists), they don't listen to propaganda internet material that they themselves produce or contribute to its production. They watch and read, to put it conditionally, professional media - whose viewership and readership barely exceeds five percent at the national level in Serbia - and this reinforces the impression of being surrounded and exposed to criticism and attacks even more. That's why their performances and lyrics seem quite convincing to their audience, especially since they defend their privileges and sinecures.
The President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, uses this phenomenon of asymmetric minorities very well to keep his troops in a state of constant readiness, maintaining a permanent state of tension, uncertainty, and anxiety, without realistically facing any danger. The second pair of gloves is that the Serbian president belongs to a group of people, there are many of them in the world of politics and media, who need to create an electrified atmosphere in order to be more efficient, more motivated and ultimately to feel better.
Thirty-five years of wars, sanctions, inflation, crime, poverty, transition, tensions, fears, disappointed hopes, polluted air, bad nutrition, alcohol, cigars (Serbia is one of the few countries where smoking is still allowed in closed public spaces), drugs, propaganda instead of information, pranks instead of education and entertainment on television, left deep and indelible marks on the citizens of Serbia with all the inevitable consequences.
Leonardo da Vinci noticed half a millennium ago that there are three types of people: those who see, those who see when others show them where to look, and those who do not see at all. All authoritarian rulers shy away from people who see, they prefer those who see only what is shown to them, and they love those who cannot see the most.
The number of people "who can see" in Serbia has decreased to a single-digit percentage, those who can see when they are shown where to look are under constant crossfire of the propaganda regime machinery, and those who cannot see are more and more numerous, and that is why there is little democracy and freedom. which remained at risk.
However, one should not despair. As rarely in its history, geography is on the side of a better future for the citizens of Serbia, despite the fact that many do not want to see it. Without close ties with the EU, the USA and the surrounding former Yugoslav republics, Belgrade risks a serious economic crisis, and only this can seriously undermine the foundations of Vučić's government, and the Serbian president is aware of that. That is why he is making moves that are contradictory at first glance, because it is not about a strategy for Serbia to become a member of the EU, but about a tactic to conserve power. For example, Serbia has not formally imposed sanctions on Russia, it maintains direct air lines with Moscow and St. Petersburg, but 90 percent of aid from the region, in the military, humanitarian, energy and economic spheres for Ukraine comes - from Serbia.
The pro-European opposition should start working on the long haul and prepare for the marathon because in sprint election races, Vučić's specialty, he has no chance of winning. Serbia does not lack parties, leaders and media to replace Vučić, there are more than they need, Serbia lacks, as Leo Longanezi would say, free people, and they are not converted in election campaigns with appearances on television, rallies or texts in newspapers, they are raised, nurtured, educated, for years, sometimes even decades. The recipe is for everyone to do their job to the best of their ability. Otherwise, the alternative is "dismount Kurt to mount Murt" or even worse rulers as in the myth of Dionysius and the old woman.
Bonus video:
