The future is a fucked up thing.
I thought about it while reading about the marketing campaign on the occasion of the one hundred and fortieth birthday of the company Croatia osiguranje, which these days set up a multimedia pavilion "Croatia 2074 – A View of the Future" in front of the Mimar Museum. The concept is basically simple: in cooperation with prominent Croatian scientists, intellectuals and Boža Skoka, the marketing of the leading national insurance company devised a projection of fifty years into the distant Croatian future, offering three possible scenarios - pessimistic, realistic and optimistic.
As expected, the result is unprecedented fun. Until the conclusion of this issue of Novosti, for example, it is not clear whether it is more amusing that the Croatian futurologists in one of the scenarios see Croatia in 2074 as a country where "religion has been banished from public life" or that it is a "pessimistic scenario "! According to which, by the way, in fifty years "a weakened Croatia in a period of geopolitical instability and conflict" will find itself "engaged in war events", "guerrilla movements will threaten the integrity of the country", and "the devastated security and political system will not be able to respond to the challenges". which is why "Croatia as a political community will be on the brink."
An optimistic scenario? Perhaps the one according to which "descendants of emigrants will return to their homeland" in 2074, which in the meantime "became a multicultural country" and "legally ensured the sustainability of space as a national asset", and "the most valuable Croatian resource is knowledge in energy, artificial intelligence, healthcare and food production"? No: it is a "realistic scenario"!
I see that you are now really interested in what an optimistic "view of the future" looks like, so here it is: according to it, in 2074, Croatia is an "unquestionable regional military power", "globally recognized for civil liberties, tolerance and inclusiveness", "a country with the best health services and advanced technologies", "European center for innovation" – "personalized AI medicine is a Croatian invention"! – and "pioneer of biodigital tourism", whatever that means. Whatever that means? Croatian futurologists have an interesting proposal: "In the year 2074, in Croatia, with the help of advanced technology, historical events will be reconstructed before the eyes of tourists."
And no, I'm not kidding at all. Optimists from the marketing of Croatia osiguranje see Croatia in the future as a leader of "biodigital tourism" in which, in 2074, "with the help of advanced technology, historical events are reconstructed before the eyes of tourists." I don't know about you, but I'm betting on Boža Skoka.
So let's "reconstruct historical events with the help of advanced technology". Here, for example, is the year 1974.
So put your 4D visors on your heads for virtual reality - well, virtual past - and let yourself go: Yugoslavia won the World Cup in Frankfurt, where they will beat the world champions Brazil, Mate Parlov becomes the world champion in Havana, the foundation stone for the Nuclear Power Plant was laid Krško, Elektronska industrija Niš started the production of color televisions, the series "U registraturi" is shown on JRT, the first "Kocka, kocca, kockica" was broadcast, Bijelo dugme released the first album, "Kad bih bijelo dugme", The Assembly of the SFRY adopts a new Constitution, Josip Broz Tito is declared president for life of the country and of the Union of Communists of Yugoslavia, and comrades from SOUR Croatia osiguranje are setting up a pavilion with the exhibition "Yugoslavia 2024 - Looking to the Future" on the occasion of the company's ninetieth anniversary in Zagreb.
The question is legitimate, but not rewarding: is it even conceivable in 1974 that in the future, "in a period of geopolitical instability", "a weakened Yugoslavia will find itself engulfed in war events" in which "guerrilla movements will threaten the integrity of the country", and "the devastated security and political system will not be able to respond to the challenges", which is why "Yugoslavia as a political community will be on the brink"?
And "faith" - lest I forget - "returned to the public space"?
That, I said, is a legitimate question, but not an award-winning one. The prize question is as follows: would the scenario with the war and the breakup of Yugoslavia, the secession of Croatia and the Vatican agreements in Zagreb in 1974 be pessimistic, realistic or - optimistic?
You see how screwed up the future is: what was a pessimistic, dystopian scenario for us fifty years ago, from here, in 2024, looks like glorious and glorious history. Today, for example, it is written like this: "With the greatness and undisturbed beauty of its Homeland War, the Croatian people - as the HDZ Program rightfully notes - soared to the highest moral and political achievements of modern humanity." To me, fifty years ago, that scenario would have sounded like this: "With the greatness and undisturbed beauty of their socialist revolution, the peoples of Yugoslavia - as the Program of the Union of Communists of Yugoslavia rightfully notes - soared to the highest moral and political achievements of modern humanity."
Or, to rephrase the award question: would the author of the scenario about the "beauty of the socialist revolution", the "proud SKJ Program" and "top moral and political achievements" consider the year 2024 an optimistic or a pessimistic scenario?
Ah yes, author: Dr. Franjo Tuđman, in the book "Creation of Socialist Yugoslavia".
I'm telling you, the future is a fucked up thing.
Speaking of which, Yugoslavia. We have plunged into a pessimistic past, so nothing prevents us from going even further. So the year is 1924, ever since the Vidovdan Constitution, the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes has a strong and centralized monarchy, the Communist Party is banned, and communists are in prisons, Prime Minister Nikola Pašić signs the Treaty of Rome with Mussolini, Italy annexes Rijeka, the Lička railway connects Zagreb and Split, and Croatia Insurance Cooperative from Zagreb is setting up the pavilion "Kraljevina SHS 1974 – A View of the Future" on the occasion of the company's fortieth anniversary.
Do you understand?
We can, why not, even further. The year is 1874, ever since the Croatian-Hungarian settlement, the three Kingdoms of Croatia, Dalmatia and Slavonia are under the jurisdiction of Budapest, Matica Illyria changes its name to Matica hrvatska, the Hrvatski sokol is founded, Ban Ivan Mažuranić ceremoniously opens a modern University in Zagreb, and Mayor Ivan Together with the writers Gjur Deželić and Augusto Šeno, Vončina presents an initiative to the city council to establish the Zagreb Mutual Insurance Institute, which ten years later will give rise to Insurance Association Croatia. So they present their idea to the citizens with a pavilion on Harmica and the exhibition "Austro-Hungary 1924 – A View of the Future".
You understand: not even a historical novelist like Šenoa could have imagined a scenario according to which "in a period of geopolitical instability, the weakened Monarchy will find itself engulfed in war events", in which "the devastated security and political system will not be able to respond to the challenges", which is why "the Austro-Hungarians as "political community" by 1924 will no longer exist at all.
Let's put it this way: knowing that the last Croat of average age who was born and died in the same country was still a loyal soldier of the Habsburg crown, Ban Josip Jelačić, who died a full quarter of a century before Croatia Insurance was even founded, it is quite ambitious to make projections of the future of a space where no state lasted longer than fifty years, and where the last such – the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy from 1867 – lasted exactly fifty-one. And this is especially ambitious for an insurance company whose policyholders were left with nothing at regular historical intervals: none of the countries in which Croatia Insurance celebrated big anniversaries, but by the next jubilee, there were no more - neither the Austro-Hungarian Empire, nor the Karađorđević Kingdom, nor Tito's Federation .
What did I mean by that? Nothing, that's what you thought, not me. I don't think so, I'm just asking: is what you thought a pessimistic or a realistic scenario?
Or, far from it, optimistic?
Bonus video:
