When the Brexit referendum in the United Kingdom produced an unexpected result in 2016, the European Commission hired three people to ensure that the decision to leave the European Union was remembered as complete folly. Today, the same three men remain at the top of the EU's political pantheon - only now they sing the anthem of the Brexiteers. To understand why, we need to understand the Union's deepening crisis.
Michel Barnier, the former EU commissioner, was chosen to lead the day-to-day negotiations with the United Kingdom, with the aim of crushing the British envoys and extracting every possible benefit from them. Donald Tusk, then president of the European Council, even launched an ill-fated campaign for a second referendum, undiplomatically suggesting that Brexiteers deserved a “special place in hell”. Finally, French President-elect Emmanuel Macron waged a discursive battle against the spirit of Brexit from the heights of the Elysée Palace, warning his British counterparts that they would never be allowed to choose only the parts of the EU they like and reject the rest.
These three went to war against the Brexiteers with three goals in mind. First, they sought to defend the coherence of the EU single market, in particular the idea of a competitive balance in which French, Portuguese and Slovenian companies face - at least in theory - the same rules. In contrast, Brexit campaigners, on both the right and the left, have been steadfast in their demands that the UK Government should regain the right to offer state aid to strategically important companies investing on British soil. Macron has taken up the fight, condemning the UK's efforts to turn the tide in favor of select British companies at the expense of the EU's precious single market principles.
Second, they sought to dash any British hopes of breaking free from the EU's common institutions in favor of the City of London. Tusk has assembled a team to ensure the final Brexit deal punishes British financiers who have refused to move a significant portion of their portfolios, staff and investments within the EU. Tusk told British financiers that, after Brexit, "life will be different" for them.
Finally, they wanted to portray Brexiteers as misguided enemies of another cherished EU principle: freedom of movement. Barnier has repeatedly told British negotiators that the only way the UK can continue to enjoy tariff-free trade with the EU is to drop its absurd demand to take back control of its borders. Even recently, in June, Barnier was adamant: "There is no renegotiation of Brexit without freedom of movement."
Today, all three of the EU's watchdogs have changed their tune, adopting the language and policies of the Brexiteers they were previously tasked with opposing. First, the pretense that we are defending a level playing field for companies across Europe has come to an end. Faced with the crisis caused by the covid-19 pandemic, France and Germany reaffirmed the right to provide state aid. "The answer we had in Europe in recent years," as Macron said, "was to provide national flexibility: state aid." Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz flexed his government's muscle to block a fully legal takeover of Commerzbank by Italy's UniCredit, undermining the possibility of an EU single financial market.
The transformation of the other two is far more surprising. Tusk, revealing a Brexiteer in himself, seems to have forgotten how wrong it is for an EU member state to want to regain control of its borders. Now, as Poland's prime minister, Tusk is vowing to, you guessed it, “take back control” of Poland's borders, seeking a British-style exemption from EU rules on the minimum number of asylum seekers European countries must accept. In fact, Tusk went even further, suspending the right to asylum in Poland for those coming from Belarus and Russia, a gross violation not only of EU rules, but also of Poland's obligations under international law and the European Court of Human Rights - a traditional target of Brexiteers. he gets angry.
Not wanting to be left behind by Tusk, Barnier, now prime minister of France, leads a minority government relying on the tacit support of Eurosceptic, xenophobic Marine Le Pen and her National Rally. He advocates immunity from the jurisdiction of European courts so that France can deport whomever it wants and even legislate to ban all non-EU immigration.
What happened? How did EU game wardens become poachers? The answer lies mainly in Europe's fragile economic foundations. The renationalization of politics was always in sight as soon as the common project "even closer with the Union" lost its luster. Nearly two decades of underinvestment have intensified the centrifugal forces tearing Europe apart, spreading the specter of Brexit from Paris to Warsaw.
Since the start of the pandemic, EU exports to China have decreased, while the United States has almost doubled its imports from Europe. Totally dependent on America for weapons, fossil fuels and external demand, the EU is extremely vulnerable. If Donald Trump wins the upcoming presidential election and implements the promised tariffs on EU exports, Europe will face deeper stagnation and fragmentation.
He tragically accuses European leaders of having for so long rejected moderate but essential political reforms of the EU, ensuring its collapse. Expressing support for Europe's common needs (like large green investments) without any interest in creating the necessary common funds, they have become the EU's most destructive saboteurs. Brexit is back to take its toll.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024. (translation: NR)
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