What Brazil's top diplomat has just announced is a bitter disappointment for China's foreign policy ambitions in Latin America: Celso Amorim, a foreign policy adviser to President Luiz Inácio Lula, said Brazil will not sign a New Silk Road agreement with China at this time. "We do not conclude this kind of contract as if it were an insurance policy," Amorim told the daily newspaper "O Globo". However, Brazil remains interested in an exchange with China that goes beyond mere trade. Part of Brazil's new vision is not to depend on a single supplier or partner.
This is a serious defeat for Beijing. China has worked tirelessly in recent months to crown its head of state's upcoming trip to South America with an agreement with Brazil.
In the coming weeks, President Lula and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to meet at least three times within a few days: at the APEC Forum of Asia-Pacific countries in Peru in mid-November, immediately afterwards at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro and finally during the Chinese state visit to the Brazilian capital on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries.
It was generally expected that the ceremonial signing of the New Silk Road agreement would be the highlight of Xi's visit to Brazil. In Latin America, apart from Brazil, only Mexico and Colombia have not joined the initiative.
There are three reasons why Brazil is resisting China's attempt now: First, Brazil expected the deal to represent a clear concession by China that would be more political than the already intense trade and Chinese investment. Brazil wants technology transfer and reliable investment commitments, which China has neither offered nor is willing to guarantee. China repeatedly announces gigantic investment projects for bridges, ports or railway connections, which then regularly fail.
China continues to close its market to Brazilian technology products such as Embraer jets. The partnership is not only about buying and selling Chinese goods, but also about sales in China for products made in Brazil. Amorim now for the first time clearly criticized the isolation of the Chinese market.
Brazil negotiates with China from a position of strength: China is Brazil's most important trading partner. But unlike most countries in the world, China has a large trade deficit with Latin America's leading economy. Brazil supplies China with food, oil and ores. Due to the increasing confrontation with the US, China is increasingly dependent on imports of food and oil from Brazil.
In the foreign policy context, it seems that Brazil is returning to a traditionally neutral position in world politics. In the BRICS group, only India and Brazil have not signed the Silk Road Agreement. These two large countries form a democratic block that does not want to be taken over by China.
To what extent Brazil will succeed in playing as a possible leader of the "new non-aligned" in global politics in the future will not be decided only in Brasilia. It will also depend on political events such as the elections in the United States or the course of the great economic crisis in China.
(Neue Zuercher Zeitung - NZZ)
Translation: Mirko Vuletić
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