Following the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who planned the October 7, 2023 attack that sparked the Gaza war, Israel's military triumph seems closer than ever. But will this victory jeopardize Israel's long-term future?
In the 12 months since the Hamas attack, Israeli Prime Minister B. Netanyahu has sought to direct Israel's full military power against his country's enemies in the region. Leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah have been killed, and Israeli intelligence and military forces have demonstrated their ability to strike anywhere - from government inns in Tehran and hidden bunkers in Beirut to the ruins of Gaza.
No one denies that Israel has seriously weakened Hamas and Hezbollah (two components of Iran's Axis of Resistance) and will continue to do so until its military campaign ends. But it remains to be seen how far the confrontation with Iran will go. (...) Netanyahu has, so far, reserved his harshest statements for Iran, even openly calling for regime change in that country, and there is no doubt that he is ready to use Israel's military and secret resources to achieve this goal.
From a purely military perspective, Israel has achieved success after success since being caught off guard by the Hamas attack, the deadliest day in the country's history. By destroying Hamas' leadership, military infrastructure and militants, Israel has turned the Gaza Strip into a dystopian hell. And in an effort to neutralize Hezbollah, Israel has forced a quarter of Lebanese people from their homes, forcing hundreds of thousands to seek refuge in Syria, another devastated country ravaged by more than a decade of war.
But will a military victory lead to lasting peace? Although Israeli Air Force planes and drones completely dominate the skies, and the US is constantly adding to its arsenal of heavy bombs, Israel is not necessarily safer today than it was a year ago.
It is worth recalling that Israel's current security threats stemmed from its spectacular victory in the 1967 Six-Day War. Defending against a massive assault by multiple Arab armies, Israel captured large swathes of Arab and Palestinian territory, including the Gaza Strip (formerly controlled by Egypt) and the West Bank (formerly part of Jordan).
Since then, some progress toward peace has undoubtedly been made: the Israeli-Egyptian and Israeli-Jordanian accords have effectively eliminated the threat to Israel from traditional military forces. But despite the temporary success of the Oslo Accords in 1993, the threats posed by Israel's occupation of Gaza and the West Bank remain. Although the Arab countries promised "peace for the land" (cessation of hostilities if Israel withdraws troops from the occupied territories), this political process stalled and gave way to backsliding long before October 7, 2023.
Condemning the events of October 7, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres pointed out that "the attacks by Hamas did not happen in a vacuum", because "the Palestinian people have been subjected to a suffocating occupation for 56 years". This statement was met with sharp criticism in Israel. But facts remain facts. The origins of the threat that materialized so brutally on October 7 lie in Israel's decade-long failure to deal with the consequences of its own victory in 1967, including the occupation of the West Bank and millions of Palestinians.
Will history repeat itself? Will Israel be able to turn its latest military successes into a political peace process, or will it once again find itself in a situation that will endanger Israeli citizens in the long term?
You often hear talk of the “day after” after the last bullet is fired in the Gaza Strip, the West Bank and Lebanon. This phrase greatly understates the scale of the problem. Only if these territories can ensure their independence and stability in the years to come, it will be possible for everyone in the region to live in peace and security. The dilemma for Israel is this: the more convincing its military victory, the more difficult the road to peace and security will be. The legacy of 1967 makes that abundantly clear.
Many Israelis are now sorely tempted to go ahead with the military: to destroy what's left of Gaza, to dismantle the status quo in Lebanon, to push Iran toward regime change. But all these achievements may not lead to lasting peace. While Netanyahu basks in his Six-Day War-style successes, the rest of Israel should pause and reflect on the history of the past 60 years. Victory does not always bring peace, especially in the Middle East.
The author is the former Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sweden
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024. (translation: NR)
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