We all think, speak and write within certain intellectual frameworks that we generally take for granted. But eventually, the passage of time renders familiar categories and ideas obsolete. For example, who else today, apart from historians, talks about the "Soviet Union"?
Similarly, this year's presidential election in the United States of America was the most significant political event of 2024 and will almost certainly be remembered as a historical turning point. Their outcome will determine global events in the decades to come.
The effects will be felt on two levels. The first is a more immediate, practical, operational level of daily management. With Donald Trump back in the White House, the US will withdraw from the Paris climate accord, impose new tariffs on its trading partners and begin a massive campaign to detain and deport millions of illegal immigrants. Taken together, this represents a fundamental shift in how the world's most powerful country operates and what it stands for.
Then there is the global dimension, in which many scenarios are possible - from major power shifts to the collapse of long-standing alliances and the disintegration of world governing institutions and norms. What will happen to transatlantic relations? What about Ukraine? Will the US develop closer ties with Russia and other authoritarian regimes at the expense of the European Union and other allies?
Trump won despite his disdain for democratic institutions, his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, and his 34-count felony conviction. Although voters are aware of his chaotic approach to governing, his habitual lies and his sinister immigration policies - he won every key state. And even though they are fully aware of who Trump is, more Americans voted for him than for Kamala Harris.
We should not hesitate to say: liberal democracy in the United States has been dealt a fatal blow. It will be under increasing pressure from both sides of the Atlantic and there is no guarantee that it will survive. After all, can there be a future for the liberal West without the United States as its leader? I believe the answer is - no.
Trump enters his second term with Republican control of both houses of Congress, and many observers expect the Supreme Court's 6-3 conservative majority to back him unequivocally. In June, the Court ruled, in a case brought by Trump, that presidents enjoy broad immunity from prosecution related to "official" acts. That way he will be able to rule - and really rule - unhindered. Nothing prevents him from reshaping America's liberal democracy into an illiberal oligarchy.
It is also clear that the pressure on European democracies to contribute more to their own security will increase. Trump, however, has no interest in strengthening the European Union - quite the opposite, in fact, the very ability of the Union to move forward on its own without the tacit support of the US is in question. This will require a fundamental change in the political mentality of Europeans, which is not currently in sight. Moreover, the Franco-German engine, which has always driven the European Union, is no longer working and no one knows when or if it will be restarted.
Another big issue is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Will the current Israeli government now rush to annex the West Bank? What will they do about Iran, which is stockpiling uranium almost as a weapon? All signs point to a major war in the region—a violent restructuring that will bring anything but peace or even a permanent ceasefire.
This brings us to the final, most important question: what would the world look like without the liberal West? For decades, the transatlantic alliance projected power (both hard and soft) and modeled the values that underpinned a cohesive global order. But now the global order is in the midst of a chaotic transition.
If Europe does not unite in this moment of turbulent change - it will not have a second chance. Its only option is to become a military power capable of protecting its interests and ensuring peace and order on the world stage. The alternative is fragmentation, impotence and irrelevance. The problem is aggravated by the huge technological shift towards digitization and artificial intelligence, as well as the demographic crisis in Europe. Although the continent has too many elderly people and too few young people, he is increasingly opposed to immigration.
And now what? Will Europe prepare for or return to a structure reminiscent of the one that followed the Congress of Vienna in 1814-1815, in which Russian influence was dominant and all-encompassing? On November 6, Europeans woke up to a result that will affect them more than all their elections combined. Trump will not only change America (for the better); he will also shape European history - if we let him.
The author was the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Vice Chancellor of Germany from 1998 to 2005; he led the German Green Party for almost 20 years
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024. (translation: NR)
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