Few could have predicted that TikTok users in the United States would, in defiance of the US government's ban, switch en masse to the Chinese app RedNote (Xiaohongshu). Yet, in just two days last week, RedNote became the most downloaded app in the US - 700.000 new users, most of them former TikTok users.
Since data security in the US was the reason for the ban on TikTok, the migration of American users to other Chinese apps only adds to those concerns. Unlike TikTok — a platform that does not operate in China and is not subject to Chinese laws — RedNote is a domestic Chinese app that is subject to strict Chinese regulations. Additionally, while TikTok claims to store American user data exclusively within the US, with oversight from a US security team, RedNote stores the data entirely — in China.
In recent years, China has introduced a series of data protection laws, ostensibly aimed at protecting user information. However, these regulations primarily apply to businesses, while giving the government far greater freedom to access users' personal data. This gives Chinese authorities broad discretion to request and access user data.
In addition to data privacy concerns, US authorities are also concerned that TikTok could be used to influence public opinion in the US. However, TikTok’s algorithms are under close scrutiny by Oracle as part of a deal to address security concerns. In contrast, RedNote’s algorithms are closely monitored by the Chinese government, and the app is subject to strict Chinese content moderation requirements, which could further shape the views of TikTok “refugees” now migrating to the platform.
Given the rationale behind the TikTok ban, it’s hard to imagine RedNote escaping similar scrutiny. Now that the U.S. Supreme Court has upheld the TikTok ban, the president will have the authority to designate RedNote as a national security threat. But the process could quickly devolve into an endless game of Whac-a-Mole. As American users move from one Chinese platform to another, regulators will find themselves in a never-ending cycle of banning Chinese apps.
As the list of banned apps grows, the US risks building its own “Great Firewall” — a mirror of the censorship strategy that China has long employed. Even if Chinese apps are removed from US app stores, tech-savvy users can easily circumvent such restrictions with a VPN, just as Chinese users use VPNs to access foreign platforms. This means that the US government will soon face the limits of its ability to ban Chinese apps.
Moreover, each new restriction risks fueling defiance, driving even more users to Chinese-controlled platforms. Rather than alleviating national security concerns, this strategy could inadvertently exacerbate them, introducing the very kind of vulnerability that the original ban was intended to address.
The TikTok ban thus puts the US government in an almost untenable position, which may explain why Donald Trump is reportedly considering options to lift the TikTok ban (despite having initiated the ban himself during his first term). But even reversing the ban carries its own risks.
Because it is a law passed by Congress, the ban cannot be lifted by executive order. In theory, Trump could order law enforcement agencies not to enforce the ban, but that would have far-reaching consequences — including calling into question America’s commitment to the rule of law (which echoes accusations the US has long leveled at China).
An alternative to banning TikTok could be to forcibly shut down the app's operations in the US, but that solution depends on one key factor - Chinese approval. Namely, in 2020 China imposed restrictions on the export of technologies such as recommendation algorithms - which are the core of TikTok's business - effectively giving the Chinese government veto power over any potential deal.
The TikTok dilemma now represents a powerful bargaining chip for Chinese leaders, giving them a significant advantage in their dealings with Trump, who built his campaign on a promise to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods. Not surprisingly, Trump reached out to Chinese President Xi Jinping for help just hours before the Supreme Court was due to rule on the ban.
At the same time, the TikTok saga has brought China another strategic gift. The friendly interaction between TikTok “refugees” and Chinese users on the RedNote platform has created an unprecedented opportunity for cultural exchange—something Chinese leaders have long sought but have struggled to achieve.
For more than two decades, the Chinese government has been aggressively trying to promote its culture and expand its influence in the United States. While it has bought advertising space in Times Square and established Confucius Institutes at American universities, these efforts have largely been ineffective. Interestingly, what RedNote has achieved in just a few days dwarfs the cumulative impact of all these previous initiatives.
As I concluded in my recently published book High Wire, centralized decision-making often leads to fragile rather than strong regulatory outcomes. The TikTok saga is a compelling reminder that too much concentration of presidential power in shaping US foreign policy – particularly towards China – can lead to similar results.
As Trump is expected to further consolidate executive power during his second term, surround himself with loyalists, and operate with fewer institutional constraints, this trend seems set to intensify, creating enormous unintended consequences.
The author is a law professor at the University of Southern California.
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2025. (translation: NR)
Bonus video:
