Thirty-five years ago, the world experienced an epochal change - the collapse of European communism. Francis Fukuyama called that moment “the end of history” and predicted that all societies would eventually converge towards liberal democracy and a market economy. Today, however, comments that this prediction turned out to be wrong have become a cliché. And with the return of Donald Trump to power and his “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement, perhaps we should call the present era “the end of progress.”
Most of us take progress for granted. Yet 250 years ago, living standards were little different from 2.500 years ago. It was only thanks to the Enlightenment and the Industrial Revolution that we achieved the enormous improvements (life expectancy, health, living standards) that define the modern world.
Enlightenment thinkers recognized the importance not only of scientific experiments and research, which enabled people to better understand nature and create new, transformative technologies, but also of the social sciences, which helped coordinate efforts to improve the living conditions of all members of society. This progress required that absolutism give way to the rule of law, that respect for truth prevail over obscurantism, and that expert knowledge assume a greater role in human affairs. Among the various aspects of the MAGA revolution, its open rejection of all these values is particularly troubling.
Can progress continue? The Soviet Union succeeded in launching Sputnik, and Trump and his supporters may achieve remarkable technical successes in space and the field of artificial intelligence (AI). But can we really expect the new American oligarchy to strive for constant and widespread progress? The people in power today are motivated solely by the desire for wealth. They accumulate it without hesitation through exploitation and rentierism. They use their ingenuity not for the common good, but to manipulate the masses and spread disinformation, using market power, the media and technological platforms to achieve personal interests.
What distinguishes today’s American corruption from its earlier forms? Its scale and audacity. The idea of envelopes with $100 bills seems ridiculous compared to today’s methods. American oligarchs can now openly “donate” hundreds of millions of dollars to politicians’ election campaigns in exchange for their services. The $465 million loan that President Barack Obama’s administration granted Tesla 15 years ago without any special conditions seems insignificant compared to what is being prepared today.
Progress requires an educated workforce and investment in basic science. But during his first term, Trump proposed such drastic cuts to science funding that even his Republican colleagues opposed him. Will they show the same willingness to oppose him now?
And is progress even possible when the institutions responsible for the development and transmission of knowledge are under constant attack? The MAGA movement wants to bring down the institutions of the “elite,” and it is in them that the most advanced research is conducted. No country can truly prosper if a significant portion of its population suffers from lack of education, poor health, and malnutrition.
In America, about 16% of children grow up in poverty, international assessments of the quality of education are mediocre at best, hunger and homelessness have become commonplace, and the average life expectancy is the lowest among developed countries. The only way out is to increase and improve government spending. However, Trump and his team of oligarchs intend to reduce the federal budget as much as possible. This will further increase the US's dependence on labor. But even qualified immigrants are anathema to supporters of Trump's MAGA movement.
America has long since become a global leader in fundamental science and technology, but it is hard to imagine how it will maintain that leadership under Trump. I see three possible scenarios.
In the first, America recognizes its deep problems, rejects the MAGA movement, and reaffirms its commitment to Enlightenment values. In the second scenario, the US and China continue on their respective paths—the former toward oligarchic capitalism, the latter toward authoritarian state capitalism—while the rest of the world lags behind. Finally, while the US and China remain on their respective courses, Europe takes up the banner of progressive capitalism and social democracy.
Unfortunately, the second scenario is the most likely, which means we have to think about how long America’s problems will be under control. China has significant advantages in technology and artificial intelligence thanks to its huge market, large number of engineers, long-term planning and complete surveillance. In addition, Chinese diplomacy, compared to about 60% of non-Western countries, is far more successful than America’s. Yet neither China nor Trump’s America is committed to the values on which progress has been based since the late 18th century.
Tragically, humanity is already facing existential problems. Advances in technology have given us the means to self-destruct, and the best way to prevent it is through international law. In addition to the threats posed by climate change and pandemics, we now have to worry about unregulated artificial intelligence.
It could be argued that, despite the halt in progress, earlier investments in fundamental science will continue to yield valuable results. In addition, optimists will add that every dictatorship sooner or later comes to an end, and that history continues. A hundred years ago, the world was swept by a wave of fascism. But then came waves of democratization, decolonization, and the struggle for civil rights, which opposed racial, ethnic, and gender discrimination.
The problem is that these successful social movements have not yet achieved full success, and time is not on our side. Climate change will not wait for us to organize and take action.
Do Americans expect gradual and steady progress toward general prosperity, including better education, healthcare, safety, public interests, and a clean environment? I doubt it. Would the end of progress in America cause a domino effect in the rest of the world? There is no doubt about that.
It is still too early to see the full consequences of Donald Trump's second term as president. History, of course, continues - but progress can remain in the past.
The author is an American economic expert; he is the winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics; is a professor at Columbia University; was the chief economist of the World Bank (1997-2000)
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2025. (translation: NR)
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