"Montenegro has essentially been given a date for signing the EU Accession Treaty, which cannot be public or formal, after the negative experience with Romania and Bulgaria, but is being planned, worked on and coordinated in European institutions as if the treaty would be signed in December 2026," sources well-informed about the Montenegrin dossier in European institutions told "Vijesti".
The European Commission, namely the Enlargement Commission, is already preparing to hire experts to write the text of the accession treaty. It is expected that in the next few months the EU Council will give the green light to the European Commission to start recruiting the necessary staff and that the drafting of Montenegro's accession treaty with the EU will begin at the end of the summer.
Key member states, including Germany and future Chancellor Friedrich Merz, are aware that it is necessary to continue the enlargement policy and that they must therefore have a tangible result, which is Montenegro's entry into the EU by the end of this decade.
Great will and goodwill towards Podgorica even implies a willingness to turn a blind eye to the former Yugoslav republic here and there in order to achieve the unofficial goal set. Quite simply, a lot of time has passed since the last EU enlargement, that is, the entry of Croatia in 2013, and in order for this policy to remain credible, in anticipation of the other Western Balkan states, Ukraine and Moldova, Montenegro's membership is almost imperative.
Brussels considers the Democratic Party of Socialists' (DPS) attempts to obstruct Montenegro's rapid entry into the EU as a more serious threat than the actions of the so-called pro-Serbian parties in the ruling coalition, although no one underestimates possible maneuvers against Montenegro's rapid path to the EU by the Aleksandar Vučić regime in Belgrade.
It is expected that DPS will do everything it can to stop the process of Montenegro's integration into the EU because, according to their narrow-minded calculations, Montenegro's entry into the EU with a ruling coalition at the helm of the state poses a great danger to the party's future and threatens to make it irrelevant.
Identity issues, as demonstrated in previous elections, do not move the electorate sufficiently. At the same time, the ruling coalition's embrace of Montenegro's European path as a primary goal has further disoriented DPS, as they believed they had an exclusive title to the banner of Montenegro's European integration. That is why DPS is doing its utmost to show that the ruling coalition is made up of fake Europeans and Russophile Serbian nationalists, and that only they can bring the country into the EU.
In Brussels they perfectly understand the type of party that is played out internally between political parties and that is why they keep their distance. In general, for the EU it does not matter much who is in power as long as it fulfills everything that has been agreed and is part of the so-called European agenda while maintaining the Euro-Atlantic course.
It would be wrong to say that the EU prefers one side or the other. One of the fundamental principles of the EU in enlargement policy is to cooperate with those who can deliver results, which is, in this historical period, the ruling coalition in Montenegro.
Several initiatives are being prepared in European institutions, from the Commission to the Parliament, and even in particularly interested member states, which will be directed towards DPS with the aim of finding a compromise solution from which Montenegro would benefit the most, namely not to slow down or block the country's path towards EU membership.
In this context, it is not ruled out that Prime Minister Milojko Spajić may be well-intentionedly advised to reach some kind of gentleman's or even stronger agreement with the DPS that the honorary president of that party, Milo Đukanović, will not be prosecuted or arrested until Montenegro joins the EU. In other words, to make a truce until the biggest state job of the 21st century is done.
Apart from DPS, Montenegro's rapid entry into the EU with the current majority in power in Podgorica is absolutely not in line with the progressive regime in Belgrade. Montenegro's membership in the EU before the end of this decade, with an ethnic Serb in the prime minister's position and so-called pro-Serb parties in power, destroys the narrative that Vučić's propaganda has been spreading for years, that the Serbs are doing everything they can to enter the EU, but that Europe does not want them and is not ready for enlargement.
EU member states and institutions, with the exception of the European Parliament, are quite reserved and cautious about the issue of Serbia, as a large number of strategic contracts, agreements and relations with Belgrade are at stake. However, this does not mean that Brussels does not understand that Vučić is a potentially major problem for Montenegro's rapid entry into the EU.
Moreover, our source in Brussels underlines that European officials were explicit, during their meeting with Vučić, that actions from Belgrade aimed at hindering or slowing down Podgorica's rapid entry into the EU would not be tolerated. The question is how convincing these warnings were, and no one can rule out that Vučić, through his people in Montenegro, will not work, directly or indirectly, to obstruct Montenegro's path to EU membership.
In EU member states, except to some extent in Croatia, and European institutions do not consider the New Serbian Democracy (NSD) and the Democratic People's Party (DNP) to be as powerful and influential as the DPS and its close non-governmental organizations are trying to present, to stop Montenegro, let alone change its geopolitical orientation.
The electoral base of Andrija Mandić and Milan Knežević in the Montenegrin electorate is limited and cannot physically grow by more than 15 percent (NSD and DNP together), which means that their room for maneuver is narrowed and they cannot go beyond the role of junior partner in ruling coalitions. Mandić, at least that's what our sources in Brussels say, is aware of this, while the same cannot be said for Knežević.
From the above, a crystal clear difference emerges between the President of the Parliament of Montenegro and the leader of the DNP. For a long time, Mandić has been acting surprisingly statesmanlike in his contacts with Western partners, giving unambiguous and precise assurances that there will be no obstacles on Montenegro's path to the EU and that he will not raise the issue of NATO membership, now or in the future.
Knežević, on the other hand, has profiled himself as Vučić's first politician in Montenegro with the idea of imposing himself as the leader of all Serbs in Montenegro. Lately, the DNP leader has been doing everything he is told at Andrić's wreath in Belgrade.
The example of voting on the Resolution on the genocide in Jasenovac, Dachau and Mauthausen is only the most visible, and behind it lies a series of indirect "footsteps" and serving topics to the DPS for its campaign.
For the new American administration, Montenegro is not an issue because it is considered a resolved issue with NATO membership. The current composition of the government in Washington is much less allergic to Russia and its presence in the Balkans, among other things because they believe that it is limited to propaganda, which in Montenegro has a much more modest reach than in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. In this context, cries that parts of the government are Russophile will not have a special effect on Washington.
The new administration supports Podgorica's entry into the EU. Washington, unlike the previous period, will not actively participate in political processes in Montenegro, will not protect the ruling coalition, but will not help the opposition to come to power either. The only American red line is Montenegro's Atlantic course, that is, that Podgorica belongs to the American sphere of influence and interest.
"Only if the ruling coalition in Podgorica starts working directly or indirectly against the interests of the current US administration or undermines its strategies and plans, which has not been the case so far, could there be changes in the relationship towards Montenegro," says a source close to the new US administration.
In any case, in Brussels and Washington, in circles dealing with Montenegro, there is a belief that Montenegro's entry into the EU is practically a done deal that just needs to be "handled" to the end, avoiding unpleasant surprises and unnecessary delays.
It is time for Montenegro to finally refute the ominous remark of the late US special envoy for our region, Richard Holbrooke: In the Balkans, never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. Carpe diem, Montenegro.
Bonus video:
