Donald Trump arrived in the White House on a tsunami of public hostility toward “elites.” Yet his supporters include some of the leading figures in the plutocratic establishment. In his first term, Trump—a wealthy businessman and public figure—surrounded himself with conventional Republican politicians, Wall Street financiers, and economic nationalists. This time, they have been joined by members of the techno-right, most notably represented by Elon Musk, the world’s richest man.
What unites all of these groups so far is not Trump’s character or leadership skills – both of which are sorely lacking. Instead, the unifying element is the belief that their particular agendas will be easier to achieve under Trump than under his most likely alternative. Conservative Republicans want low taxes and less regulation, while economic nationalists want to eliminate the trade deficit and restore American manufacturing. Free speech absolutists want to end what they perceive as “leftist censorship,” while the techno-right wants a free hand to pursue their own vision of the future.
Regardless of what projects they are working on, all of these groups believe that Kamala Harris and Joe Biden have been obstacles in their path, while Trump is a promising ally. Most have nothing against democracy per se, but they seem willing to ignore and thus encourage Trump’s authoritarianism, at least as long as he is willing to work to achieve their agendas. When Trump’s anti-democratic impulses and contempt for the rule of law are pointed out to them, they try to downplay such accusations and mitigate the potential risks.
During Trump’s first term, I expressed my concerns about one of the new administration’s top economic advisers (he was an economic nationalist). He told me there was no need to worry, adding that the biggest threat was Democrats and the bureaucratic state. His boss’s determination to impose tariffs was more important than the potential consequences for democracy.
Likewise, in a recent episode of New York Times journalist Ezra Klein’s podcast, free speech absolutist Martin Gurri explained that his support for Trump is primarily a result of the Biden administration’s suppression of free speech. Biden “basically told [social media] platforms: You’re going to have to abide by European standards of good conduct online,” Gurri says. But the restrictions Trump is imposing on public appearances by government officials and private entities funded by the administration are even more outrageous. Even while he acknowledges that Trump may ultimately prove to be a “bad choice,” Gurri doesn’t seem concerned. Eliminating woke culture seems more important than protecting the First Amendment.
Given the willingness of Trump's elite supporters to prioritize their own vested interests over democratic principles, the risk of a slide into authoritarianism should be more than obvious. Fortunately, the most likely outcome is a clash of opposing projects, leading to the disintegration of Trump's coalition.
The most acute conflict is between economic nationalists and the techno-right. Both camps see themselves as anti-system actors and both want to overthrow a regime they believe was imposed by the Democratic Party elite. But they offer very different visions of America and its path into the future.
Economic nationalists want a return to a mythical past from the heyday of American industry, while the tech camp plans a utopian future ruled by artificial intelligence. One camp is populist, the other elitist. Some believe in the wisdom and common sense of ordinary people, others exclusively in technology. Some want to stop immigration altogether, while others want to accept skilled immigrants. One camp is parochial, the other fundamentally globalist. Some want to dismantle Silicon Valley, while others want to empower it. Some believe that the rich should be taxed more, while others that they should be given more help.
Nationalist-populists claim to speak for those who would be disadvantaged by Musk’s vision of a technological revolution. It’s no wonder, then, that they have a deep disdain for the “technofeudalists” of Silicon Valley. Steve Bannon, a leading voice among economic nationalists (and a Harvard Business School graduate, of course), has even called Musk an “illegal immigrant parasite.” Musk and everything he stands for must be “stopped,” Bannon warns. “If we don’t stop them… they will destroy not just this country, they will destroy the entire world.”
Although Bannon is not currently in the Trump administration, he is a leading figure in the MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) movement and maintains close ties to many of the administration’s top officials. Still, it’s clear that Trump is now more interested in what Musk has to say. The White House has given Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) a free hand, and Trump is encouraging Musk to be even more aggressive.
It is common for personalist leaders like Trump to pit their allies (in effect, caucuses) against each other so that none of them gains too much power. Trump undoubtedly thinks he can stay on top and exploit their conflicts for his own ends. But such tactics work best when the different factions competing for state resources and rents are not burdened by differences in ideology and value systems.
Given the starkly different worldviews and political preferences of the forces driving the Trump administration, a showdown is virtually inevitable. But what would happen then? Would paralysis ensue, or would one group assert its dominance? Will Democrats succeed in exploiting the divide? Will Trumpism be exposed? Will the prospects for American democracy improve or worsen?
Whatever the outcome, the tragedy is that less educated, working-class voters, those who bought into Trump’s anti-elitist message, will be the biggest losers. None of the conflicting wings of Trump’s coalition offer a convincing vision that would work in their favor. This is true even for economic nationalists (despite their rhetoric), whose aspirations are based on unrealistic expectations of manufacturing job creation.
While different elites fight for their own visions of America, the urgent political agenda of building an economy for the middle class of a post-industrial society remains unattainable.
(Project Syndicate; Peščanik.net, translation: Đ. Tomić)
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